By
Randeep Wadehra and Amar Nath Wadehra
The recent developments in Nepal have evoked mixed feelings in India. The replacement of 239 years old monarchy with a republic may not have attracted such attention in India and around the world if the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) had not emerged as the largest in the elections with 220 out of 601 Constituent Assembly seats. The smooth transition of former insurgents to the avatar of a democratic political party is remarkable indeed. This might come as a relief to India as it strikes at the very roots of the raison d'être of insurgency, especially of the Maoist variety that infests such states as Bihar, MP and AP among several others. ‘If governments can be changed through ballot-box where is the need for blood-letting?’ the extremists’ supporters among common folks could well be asking themselves.
But there are other issues between the two countries – political and economic – between the two countries that would need revisiting. In the run-up to the elections the CPN (M)’s strongman Prachanda and others generated quite a bit of anti-India sentiment, raising such demands as stopping the recruitment of Nepalese citizens in the Indian Army, banning of Indian movies, and questioning the open borders policy. There was also a talk of abrogation of the 1950 Treaty. However, these demands have a history. In July 1950, the Treaty of Peace and Friendship was ratified. It provided for, among other things, respect of each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, granting by each country of rights equal to those of its own citizens to the nationals of the other residing in its territory. In another pact signed in October 1950, called the Treaty of Trade and Commerce, India recognized Nepal's right to import and export commodities through Indian territory and ports. Customs duty could not be levied on commodities in transit through India. But soon discordant voices began to rise. Time and again, Nepalese leaders called for the review of the treaty, demanding more concessions from the larger neighbour. Periodic disputes pertaining to work permits, citizens’ rights, taxes on goods-in-transit etc kept cropping up. Although, in the past about six decades, India has successfully dealt with the treaty without any major shift in foreign policy vis-à-vis Nepal, in the present transformed scenario it is obvious that the whole gamut of relationships, treaties and other aspects will have to be reviewed. For example, while Nepal would like to have unrestricted access to India’s ports to conduct foreign trade with other countries it would like to curtail India’s ‘trade privileges’ granted under earlier agreements. Similarly, it would like to buy military hardware from countries other than India. On the other hand, while India wouldn’t really have a problem with the re-negotiating of trade related pacts it is not happy with China’s growing influence in what India considers its backyard. Here it is pertinent to recall the two-year-long stand-off when Kathmandu signed a contract with Beijing for purchase of weapons.
This brings in the PRC factor. Tibet, which shares borders with Nepal, is the soft underbelly of People’s Republic of China. The recent developments there have brought the Dalai Lama under the Chinese scanner. Since the Dalai is headquartered in India there is a growing anxiety in Beijing vis-à-vis the possibility of Nepal becoming a conduit for infiltration into Tibet. China has always been wary of the growing ‘strategic relationship’ between India and the USA. This equation might direct resources in encouraging insurgency in Tibet via Nepal. Since the instant unraveling of the Soviet Union is still fresh in their memory, the Chinese wouldn’t like Tibet to be used as a catalyst-via-Nepal to destabilize it. This is one of the reasons why China is working overtime to strengthen its influence in the landlocked republic. Another is Beijing’s growing penchant to indulge in river-water intrigues. But that is another story. But, Nepal’s entry into the Chinese sphere of influence can not only exacerbate the problems in India’s northeastern states – where China has resumed meddling – but also open up states like Bihar and West Bengal to mischief by ultra-leftists. Therefore, Nepal’s strategic value to India cannot be gainsaid.
Since, for quite some time now, the PRC has been trying to broaden its bilateral ties with Nepal – along with periodic bids (some of these successful) at supplying weapons and other military hardware to Nepal, the northern neighbor has been busy building roads in western Nepal – it is time for India to wake up to emerging realities. To counter Beijing’s growing influence in the nascent republic India will have to accommodate Nepal’s economic and military aspirations (we do not want a repeat of Myanmar and Bangladesh in Nepal too, do we?). Apart from accommodating Nepal’s aspirations, the sharing of river-waters, power generation, trade, free trans-border movement of men and material and other such issues of mutual interest should be our top priority.
Let us not forget that apart from geographical proximity the indo-Nepalese ties are founded on the bedrock of linguistic and cultural affinity too.
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