In Bangladesh, voters made a decisive statement in the nation’s first genuinely competitive parliamentary election in almost twenty years, which took place on February 12, 2026. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies achieved a significant victory. Following the 2024 student-led uprising that brought down Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government, this landslide signifies a major change. The outcome marks the conclusion of 15 years of Awami League leadership, the reinstatement of the BNP following a 20-year break, and the initiation of a novel era of democratic ventures via constitutional reforms sanctioned in a concurrent referendum.
The outcome of this election is significant. This signals shifts in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, impacting the entire subcontinent. It indicates that India’s “special relationship” with Hasina may be cooling. A long-awaited thaw in ties with a formerly wary Bangladesh is occurring for Pakistan. China can use this to strengthen its strategic position, unburdened by Hasina’s perceived pro-India orientation. As a key player, the United States, skilled in balancing interests, uses its influence on events in a region where major powers are vying for control. At the same time, the Awami League and its exiled leader, Sheikh Hasina, confront an uncertain future, excluded from voting, pursued by legal actions, and dependent on Indian hospitality, which is now diplomatically tense.
To understand these consequences, we need to examine the elections, the participants, and the historical factors that have shaped Bangladesh’s volatile political landscape.
The 2024 Uprising and the Road to 2026 Elections: A Democratic Reckoning
Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh’s politics have swung between rival dynasties, military interventions, and stretches of authoritarianism interrupted by brief democratic openings. Power has largely alternated between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), their bitter rivalry rooted in the legacies of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Ziaur Rahman.
The upheaval of 2024 marked a dramatic rupture. What began as student protests against a 30 percent job quota for descendants of 1971 war veterans snowballed into a nationwide movement against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Demonstrators denounced corruption, post-COVID economic distress, soaring inflation, and growing authoritarianism. According to UN estimates, more than 1,400 protesters were killed in the government’s crackdown, widely condemned as a massacre. Amid impeachment threats and wavering military support, Hasina left for India on August 5, 2024, ending her 15-year rule.
An interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus promised systemic reform. The student-drafted “July Charter” proposed a caretaker administration to supervise elections, a two-term cap for prime ministers, a bicameral legislature, and greater female representation. Put to voters alongside the general election, the reforms won overwhelming approval.
The February 12, 2026 polls were historic. After allegations of rigging in 2014, 2018, and 2024, the Awami League was barred from contesting. The BNP faced a Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition that included the youth-driven National Citizen Party. With turnout near 60 percent, observers—over 500 international monitors among them—largely deemed the vote peaceful and credible.
The BNP’s sweeping 212-seat supermajority reflected a public demand—especially from youth—for jobs, accountability, and an end to dynastic politics. Yet challenges loom: Jamaat’s 77 seats signal a potential rightward shift, the economy remains fragile, and the unresolved question of reintegrating the Awami League threatens future stability.
The Main Players: Dynasties, Exile, and Exile’s End
Tarique Rahman and the BNP: From “Dark Prince” to Prime Minister
Tarique Rahman, 60, is the heir to Bangladesh’s second major political dynasty. Born in Dhaka in 1965, when the country was still East Pakistan, he is the son of Ziaur Rahman, the freedom fighter who declared Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, seized power after the 1975 upheaval, founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in 1978, and was assassinated in 1981. His mother, Khaleda Zia, later became Bangladesh’s first woman prime minister, serving from 1991 to 1996 and again from 2001 to 2006.
The BNP espouses a centre-right platform rooted in Bangladeshi nationalism, market-oriented economics, and a pragmatic engagement with Islam, in contrast to the Awami League’s secular and more India-aligned posture. Ziaur Rahman reshaped the political order by rehabilitating certain 1971-era collaborators and strengthening ties with Pakistan and Western nations. Khaleda Zia’s tenure saw economic progress but was marred by corruption allegations, political violence, and reliance on a coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami.
Tarique’s own ascent was contentious. As an influential adviser during his mother’s premiership, he was labeled the “Dark Prince,” accused of wielding behind-the-scenes power and benefiting from graft. Convicted in 2008—though some verdicts were later overturned—he spent 17 years in London amid multiple cases filed under Sheikh Hasina’s government.
Returning in late 2025 after his mother’s death, Tarique revived the BNP with promises of reconciliation, anti-corruption reforms, and a trillion-dollar economy by 2034. Now prime minister, he faces a defining test: can he reform both his party’s image and Bangladesh’s executive culture?
Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League: From Liberation Icon to Exiled Pariah
Sheikh Hasina, 78, is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding leader who was assassinated in 1975. She returned from exile in 1981 to lead the Awami League, guiding it to victory in 1996. After losing power in 2001, she staged a decisive comeback in 2008 amid a military-backed interim administration.
From 2009 to 2024, Bangladesh experienced striking economic growth under her rule. GDP expanded from roughly $100 billion to over $450 billion, poverty rates fell sharply, and the garment industry rose to become the world’s second-largest exporter. Major infrastructure projects advanced with strong backing from China and India. Yet this economic progress was accompanied by increasing authoritarianism. Media restrictions tightened, rights groups reported hundreds of enforced disappearances, and digital security laws were widely criticized for curbing dissent. Elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were dismissed by opponents as boycotted or manipulated. The International Crimes Tribunal prosecuted alleged 1971 war criminals, though critics argued it disproportionately targeted BNP-linked figures.
The violent crackdown on protests in 2024 proved decisive. Sentenced to death in absentia in 2025 on charges of crimes against humanity, Hasina fled to India, where she now lives in Delhi. From exile, she denounces the 2026 election as illegitimate. With many Awami League leaders jailed or in exile, the party faces an uncertain future and mounting public anger.
Supporting Cast
This time, Jamaat-e-Islami, which previously partnered with the BNP, ran alone and became the second leading power. Originating in 1970s Islamism, it attracts conservative voters while unsettling minorities due to its social platform. With his legacy of reforms, Yunus, the interim chief, steps down with grace.
Portents for India: From “Big Brother” to Transactional Neighbour?
Under Sheikh Hasina, India–Bangladesh ties reached an unprecedented level of cooperation. Landmark achievements included the 2015 land boundary settlement, expanded counterterrorism coordination, progress on water-sharing, and bilateral trade surpassing $15 billion annually. Dhaka acted firmly against anti-India insurgent groups operating from its soil, while carefully balancing its growing economic engagement with China. In turn, New Delhi extended infrastructure investments, credit lines, and consistent political backing to Hasina’s government.
The BNP’s return to power unsettles this equation. Previous BNP governments (1991–96 and 2001–06) adopted a more guarded approach toward India, emphasising sovereignty and occasionally signalling warmth toward Pakistan. Since the 2024 unrest, anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has intensified, fuelled by perceptions of Indian interference, unresolved Teesta River disputes, and border shootings. Hasina’s flight to India deepened suspicions among many Bangladeshis.
India now faces a delicate test, especially if Dhaka formally seeks Hasina’s extradition. While New Delhi promptly congratulated Tarique Rahman, suggesting pragmatic engagement, analysts expect ties to become more transactional. Trade and security cooperation could experience strain, yet mutual economic interdependence—Bangladesh’s need for Indian markets and India’s transit ambitions—argues for stability. A more assertive Dhaka may also influence political debates in India’s border states, particularly West Bengal.
Pakistan: A Brotherly Re-embrace?
The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, enthusiastically called Rahman, emphasising their “brotherly” ties. Post-1971, Ziaur Rahman, the originator of BNP, shifted Bangladesh’s alignment from India. Relations improved when Khaleda was in power.
A BNP government might re-establish defense, trade, and cultural ties, thereby challenging India’s dominance in the region. Textile or energy joint ventures are possible. This is a diplomatic triumph for Pakistan, as it regains influence in Muslim-majority Bangladesh after being isolated following events in Afghanistan.
China: Pragmatic Continuity with Strategic Gains
Hasina’s leading investor via Belt and Road was China, contributing over $30 billion to ports and power plants. Beijing maintained neutrality in 2024, even with its focus on India.
BNP is not expected to change direction. Rahman could strengthen infrastructure connections, despite seeking Western favour. Defense analysts predict a “Pakistan-China-Bangladesh” alliance could emerge, threatening India’s control in the Bay of Bengal. BNP’s diversification from Indian influence might strengthen Beijing’s market-driven approach to ensuring continuity.
The USA Factor: Democracy’s Champion and Great Power Arbiter
The United States has consistently criticized Hasina’s rule, imposing sanctions on officials and calling for transparent elections. Washington approved of Yunus’s interim rule.
A BNP win creates possibilities for US aims to checkmate China’s “debt-trap” tactics. It may lessen Beijing’s hold without alienating it. Moreover, US involvement may moderate Pakistan’s closeness with China. The US will increase the election’s impact through aid, diplomacy, and soft power.
Western nations could be a focus for Tarique’s government seeking investment, technology, and security support, mirroring Quad initiatives like maritime security.
The Fate of Awami League and Sheikh Hasina: Exile, Trials, and Uncertain Resurrection
This marks the lowest point for the Awami League. Unable to appear on ballots and banned, the party exists as a ghost, with leaders in hiding and demoralised supporters. Hasina’s claims of “engineered” results lack credibility due to her own history of rigged elections. It’s unlikely she’ll return due to her death sentence and the BNP’s pledge to seek her extradition.
Future rebranding for Awami League could involve new leadership, using its heritage of freedom and votes from minority communities. Still, the public’s shared trauma from 2024, labelled “Gen Z Martyrs,” calls for accountability.
Hasina, formerly lauded as the “Mother of Democracy,” is now a fugitive. Her banishment represents Awami League’s decline.
Broader Horizons: Bangladesh’s New Dawn and South Asia’s Realignment
The election in Bangladesh signifies a new phase, not a conclusion, challenging the nation to balance international pressures with domestic reconciliation. A more variable and less settled order is emerging for the subcontinent. There is a strong possibility of Islamist overreach, economic populism, and renewed dynasticism.
Tarique Rahman’s BNP is handed a country eager for reform yet damaged by internal strife. Achieving success requires economic recovery, reform implementation, and inclusive governance, such as releasing Awami League prisoners and protecting Hindus from post-2024 violence.
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