Narendra Modi’s quarter-century in power—from his appointment as Gujarat’s chief minister in 2001 to the start of his third term as India’s prime minister in 2024 and the continuation of that tenure into 2026—constitutes one of the most consequential, polarising, and institutionally transformative periods in independent India’s history. Supporters credit him with remaking the machinery of governance, accelerating infrastructure and digital public goods, and restoring a sense of national confidence after decades of coalition uncertainty. Critics point to deep social polarisation, the erosion of institutional checks, uneven job creation, and the enduring shadow of the 2002 Gujarat riots. Whether Modi remains “invincible” or is gradually “on the way out” depends less on the cult of personality that has surrounded him than on the hard arithmetic of coalitions, the quality of economic performance, and the resilience of institutions after him.
The Gujarat Years (2001–2014): Foundations and Fractures
Modi’s ascent began in the aftermath of the devastating 2001 Bhuj earthquake. As chief minister, he inherited a state still recovering from natural disaster and political turbulence. The record of those thirteen years contains both tangible developmental achievements and a moral and political controversy that has never fully dissipated.
On the credit side, the Jyotigram scheme of 2006 delivered reliable three-phase electricity to villages, enabling non-farm economic activity and reducing the fiscal burden of agricultural power subsidies. Coastal and irrigation initiatives such as Sagarkhedu and the annual Krishi Mahotsav expanded livelihood opportunities in rural and coastal areas. The Vibrant Gujarat investment summits, combined with administrative streamlining and a widely perceived improvement in law-and-order conditions, attracted significant domestic and foreign capital. Between 2004 and 2011, Gujarat’s GDP growth averaged roughly 10 percent, comfortably above the national average. Welfare innovations such as the Garib Kalyan Melas—mass outreach camps that combined direct benefit delivery with political visibility—later informed the architecture of national direct benefit transfer programmes.
Yet these gains coexisted with serious shortcomings. The 2002 communal riots remain the deepest stain on Modi’s record. Estimates of deaths range from over 1,000 to nearly 2,000, the large majority of them Muslim. Administrative failure was widely documented; allegations of political complicity have persisted despite judicial processes that did not result in personal conviction. High growth also coexisted with relatively weak public investment in health and education. Critics have long argued that the celebrated “Gujarat model” was capital-intensive and business-friendly, that some of its growth drivers predated 2001, and that it was not easily transferable to the rest of India without significant social trade-offs.
The Prime Ministerial Years (2014–2026): Scale, Reform, and Constraint
When Modi became prime minister in 2014, the Gujarat template was scaled to the national level. The results have been mixed, ambitious in design, and highly uneven in outcome.
Digital public infrastructure stands as one of the most durable achievements. The Aadhaar-linked direct benefit transfer system, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), the rapid expansion of Jan Dhan bank accounts, and large-scale schemes for cooking gas, toilets, and housing dramatically expanded the reach of the state while reducing leakages. Government claims that more than 25 crore people have been lifted out of multidimensional poverty rest heavily on these platforms. Structural reforms followed: the Goods and Services Tax unified a fragmented internal market; a new set of criminal laws replaced colonial-era codes; the National Education Policy sought to reorient schooling and higher education; the abrogation of Article 370 altered the constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir; and the Women’s Reservation Act promised a long-delayed expansion of political representation. Infrastructure spending on national highways and rural connectivity accelerated, while the government’s national-security posture became markedly more assertive, including publicised cross-border responses.
Politically, Modi delivered single-party majorities in 2014 and 2019, ending decades of coalition volatility. Even after the 2024 election, in which the Bharatiya Janata Party fell to 240 seats and required allies to form a government, he retained the premiership. Continuity of leadership at the apex of Indian politics for more than a decade is itself historically unusual.
The debit side is equally substantial. Growth has not generated sufficient formal employment. Youth unemployment stood at 16.2 percent in June 2025, and roughly one in four young Indians remains outside education, employment, or training. Critics argue that religious-political polarisation has intensified, that constitutional checks have been weakened, and that a compliant media environment—sometimes derisively called “Godi media”—has contributed to democratic backsliding. The National Education Policy has been accompanied by allegations of ideological interference and implementation gaps that leave human-capital outcomes lagging. The 2024 electoral result marked a clear break: the era of an outright single-party majority ended, and coalition constraints returned to the centre of governance.
Invincible or on the Way Out?
Modi is no longer politically invincible in the sense that he appeared after the emphatic victories of 2014 and 2019. The 2024 result demonstrated vulnerability: the BJP lost its exclusive majority and now depends on alliance partners whose demands can limit unilateral action. A further erosion of the BJP’s seat share would tighten those constraints still more. At the same time, Modi remains the dominant figure in Indian politics. His personal brand continues to drive turnout, set the national agenda, and dominate media cycles. No alternative leader currently commands comparable national recognition or organisational machinery.
Three variables will largely determine whether the current phase is a temporary plateau or the beginning of a longer decline. First, economic performance and jobs: if youth unemployment remains elevated and growth continues to feel jobless, anti-incumbency will accumulate, particularly among first-time voters who have known only the Modi era. Second, coalition dynamics: allies extract policy concessions and constrain the pace of majoritarian legislation; the more the BJP relies on them, the less “presidential” the system becomes. Third, institutional resilience: the behaviour of courts, the Election Commission, the media ecosystem, and the civil service will shape how much of the centralised “Modi system” outlasts the individual who created it.
In short, Modi is less unassailable than in 2019, yet far from finished. Indian politics is shifting from a one-man centre of gravity toward a more negotiated, coalition-tempered executive.
How Future Generations May Remember Him
Historical judgment will almost certainly fracture along three overlapping lenses.
One lens will portray Modi as a nation-builder and moderniser—the leader who scaled digital public goods, formalised welfare delivery at unprecedented volume, pushed physical infrastructure, and reasserted India’s strategic posture on the world stage. If UPI, the DBT architecture, highway networks, and certain security doctrines prove durable and are deepened by successors, “developmental statecraft” will occupy a prominent place in the narrative.
A second lens will emphasise polarisation and institutional stress-testing. This reading will associate Modi with heightened majoritarian politics, contested media independence, and sustained debates over the balance of constitutional power. If those costs prove lasting, his tenure will be remembered as a period in which democratic norms were tested under pressure.
A third, more technocratic assessment will focus on the mixed socio-economic ledger: high-visibility schemes and measurable reductions in multidimensional poverty alongside persistent joblessness and human-capital shortfalls. Historians tend to judge leaders by what endures. The final verdict will therefore hinge on whether the administrative and technological plumbing outlives the political style that produced it, or whether the social and institutional costs come to define the era.
Modi’s twenty-five years have already altered the grammar of Indian politics—centralising executive power, elevating the primacy of delivery over deliberation in public discourse, and embedding a new repertoire of digital and welfare tools into the state. The system that emerges after him will reveal whether those changes constitute a durable modernisation of governance or a more ambivalent legacy of transformation paired with democratic strain. The answer will be written not only by the man who has dominated the stage since 2001, but by the institutions, the economy, and the voters who will eventually succeed him.
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