By
Randeep
Wadehra
Strange are the processes of
history, which can transform political untouchables into the most sought after
allies and leaders, and cause protégés to upstage their mentors. This happened
with BJP’s earlier avatar, Bharatiya Jana Sangh, during the Emergency, when BJS
merged with Janata Party in 1977. With the taboo’s disappearance, and failure
of the Janata Party experiment, BJP came into its own as a political force. Its
twin faces, Advani and Vajpayee, helped in the raising of the party’s public
profile. Although the two were already jockeying for the prime ministerial
position, the rivalry remained veiled behind genteel public demeanor. Moreover,
Vajpayee’s liberal values tempered Advani’s aggressive Hindutva posturing. This
kept various NDA partners quiet, if not entirely comfortable, vis-à-vis BJP’s
core Hindutva ideology. What enabled the NDA regime to complete its tenure
during its second innings, which ended in 2004, was a combination of impressive
achievements on the economic front, reasonably good governance and groundswell
of support from the corporate sector as well as public at large. Nevertheless,
BJP’s performance in the 2004 and 2009 general elections under Advani’s
stewardship clearly indicated the need for infusion of fresh ideas and younger
leaders. Hence, the endorsement of the “Gujarat Model.”
Narendra Modi’s anointment at Goa
(although officially he has been made the chief of the party’s election
campaign, and not prime ministerial candidate) has not surprised anyone, not
even NaMo’s most virulent opponents, or Advani’s committed acolytes. However,
the genesis of this development does not lie in the 2002 Gujarat riots, as many
political analysts tend to convey, but much earlier – in the rivalry between
the two titans, Vajpayee and Advani. To position himself as the party’s
undisputed leader, Advani used the Ram Janam Bhoomi Rath Yatra to
mobilize mass support for his pet Hindutva ideology and promote his candidature
for the PM’s gaddi. It is a different matter that the RSS had to
acquiesce to political realities of the time and ask Advani to make way for
Vajpayee as NDA’s leader. Advani, having earned the sobriquet of Loh Purush,
decided to reinforce this image by taking the likes of Narendra Modi under his
wings. When Vajpayee wanted to sack Modi after the Gujarat riots, Advani had
successfully opposed the move.
Nevertheless, the protégé had no
intention to remain in the shadow of his mentor forever. Advani realized this a
bit too late. Even as he was preparing himself to step into Vajpayee’s shoes as
BJP’s next liberal-secular statesman, he failed to grasp the changed mood of
the grassroots cadres and the Sangh Parivar’s priorities. His attempts at doing
a Vajpayee, by mouthing secular-liberal shibboleths, which included praise for
Jinnah, only led to the denting of his larger than life image among various
Hindutva organizations. To make matters worse for him, Narendra Modi did
everything right in the Sangh Parivar’s estimate. After 2002, he gradually
toned his communal-jingoistic verbiage and focused on development and
governance. Moreover, he ensured that not a single communal riot occurred in
Gujarat after 2002. Modi’s regime began to radiate the hues of efficiency,
progress and ultramodern approach to development along with upholding the
party’s traditional conservative ethos. The Karnataka State Assembly Election
fiasco did nothing to dent this image.
Another element that contributed
to Modi’s makeover was the use of hi-tech gizmos for poll campaigns during the
Gujarat State Assembly elections. His “simultaneous appearance” at more than
one place got him closer to the young voter even as the common folks – ever
ready to worship a miracle – bowed to this newfound prowess of the demagogue. Even
here, he targeted the state’s aspirating youth by keeping his political
discourse development oriented, only occasionally going on his familiar
saffronite binge. Thus, he projected an image that was a potent amalgam of the
ultramodern and the traditional. With one stroke, he became the Sangh Parivar’s
poster boy-cum-Prime Minister-in-waiting. Advani suddenly found himself in a
position that has actually become his political career’s leitmotif – a
perennially potential prime minister. All his exertions to gain ascendancy
through various rath yatras like Somnath to Ayodhya (1990) and
the later ones like Janaadesh, Swarna Jayanti, Bharat Uday, Bharat Suraksha
and Jana Chetna went in vain. Therefore, when Advani boycotted the Goa meeting,
he had to undergo the mortification of witnessing his own party’s cadres demonstrating
against him in front of his Prithviraj Road residence. Moreover, most of his
camp followers had apparently decided that discretion was better than valor,
thus leaving the old warhorse alone in his battle for political survival. No
wonder, he accepted the peace brokered by Mohan Bhagwat.
Nevertheless, the consequences of
Modi’s rise will be manifold. Janata Dal (United), with twenty MPs, may part
ways. Already, Sharad Yadav has described the NDA as being “on a ventilator”
while Nitish Kumar has not hidden his chagrin at NaMo’s ascendency. Other
allies like Akali Dal, Shiv Sena etc are too regional to count for much when
chips are down in the post-2014 election scenario. Congress leaders have a
reason to be gleeful. A series of corruption related scandals and governance
issues had put the Congress on back-foot. The saffron infighting, with the
prospects of more seismic developments not ruled out, has given it the much-needed
respite. Now, with Modi as BJP’s face for the 2014 elections, Congress leaders
are anticipating crystallization of vote banks, with return of the minorities,
especially estranged Muslim voters, to its fold. They are also counting on the
open infighting in the Sangh Parivar shaking the confidence of those voters who
have always looked upon BJP and RSS as paragons of discipline. They also
believe that in today’s increasingly liberal ethos, the youth would not like to
either be kept on a tight leash, or even be told how to live their lives, and
are extremely wary of the Ram Sene type of outfits.
However, Congress may be
disappointed, as this scenario may not fructify. JD(U) and BJD are showing
inclination towards going it alone or reviving the Third Front in conjunction
with other parties like TMC, TDP, TRS, AIADMK, SP and BSP. Now, the question
arises, if the Third Front becomes a reality, would it be a game-changer in the
country’s electoral politics or merely a potential kingmaker? Who would lead
such a Front wherein strong personalities like Jayalalitha, Mamata Banerjee,
Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik harbor ambitions for the prime ministerial
post? Would there be even a semblance of cohesion?
Let the processes of history decide.
Published in The Financial World
dated 13 June 2013
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