By
Randeep
Wadehra
The food security ordinance has triggered off debates in
assorted fora. Apart from various political parties’ reactions – leftists
describe it as contempt against the parliament while the BJP calls it an
election stunt; informed critics too have not taken kindly to it. The entire
controversy focuses on two aspects: political and economic.
The economics of Food Security Bill is daunting indeed. It would
require at least 125,000 crore rupees merely to enable the targeted
population’s access to cereals, wheat and rice, say some experts. This will
take the costs to 3% of the GDP, which is unacceptably high and unsustainable,
they argue. Moreover, the government is relying on old channels of distribution
that do not carry much credibility with the targeted beneficiaries. The PDS
system is susceptible to massive pilferages. Critics point out that
intermediaries, and not intended beneficiaries, will be the eventual recipients
of this governmental largesse. There is more than a grain of truth in this
argument. Statistics show that the places where schemes like Antyodaya Anna
Yojana are in operation, under which the poorest of the poor are supposed
to get 35 kg of food grains per family per month, the index of nutrition has
not improved in any noticeable manner among the targeted beneficiaries.
Obviously, the food grains were diverted to the black market. Such diversions
are papered over through fudged records. You can imagine the extent of leakage
in real terms when you consider that the number of targeted families is almost
2.50 crores!
However, on the obverse side, the ordinance is really a
blessing in disguise. First, it will be a tangible relief to the FCI’s creaking
storage facilities thanks to the increased off-take of food grain stocks.
Secondly, a much larger population in the country will now enjoy the right to
food. Apart from raising nutrition levels, this would offer an effective
antidote to the effects of drought etc, since various state governments will
have ready stocks of food grains with them to meet the provisions of the food
security ordinance, which may soon become a regular law. Nevertheless, this
sounds unrealistic, given the state of affairs in the food storage and
distribution sector. The PDS is a hopelessly unreliable vehicle for ensuring
food security. To make it effective, the government must address the problem of
leakages and loopholes. In addition, this scheme will take at least six months
to become operational throughout the country. By then it would be time for
change in regime. Then, amnesia will set in and, anyway, who cares for the
poor, really?
There must have been compelling reasons for the UPA to take
the ordinance route to usher in food security just weeks before the parliament’s
monsoon session. Perhaps the UPA wanted to avoid detailed discussion on the
Bill that has been in the offing since 2011. Moreover, squabbles within the government
too might have contributed to this step. It must have taken a lot of effort to
bring Sharad Pawar onboard because he had been one of the staunchest opponents
of the Food Security Bill. Besides, an inconsistent but important ally like the
Samajwadi Party had declared its opposition by stating that the Bill would harm
farmers’ interests. Additionally, the BJP led Opposition had been stalling proceedings
in the parliament. Never before had so many working days been wasted in the
history of the parliament; there is little hope for the conduct of normal
business during the forthcoming session. Sensing that any further delay might
kill the Bill, the UPA resorted to the ordinance. Of course, it was done in the
name of providing succor to the starving millions.
Moreover, there are political dimensions to the ordinance’s
promulgation. Elections to some important states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh
and Chhattisgarh etc are approaching. The Election Commission may issue the notification
in September, thus bringing the code of conduct into play. The Opposition had
been stalling the Bill’s introduction precisely with this in mind. They know that
after the Assembly elections, the Lok Sabha elections will be nigh. The Bill’s
successful passage would enable the UPA to have a strong populist vote grabbing
argument. To counter the Opposition’s stalling stratagem, the UPA has resorted
to this shortcut method, thus eliciting howls of protest and indignation.
Moreover, the parliament has to ratify the ordinance within six months, for it
to become the law. If the Opposition disrupts the proceedings once again in the
coming session, the UPA could conveniently paint it as anti-people during the
forthcoming elections. Thus, they hope to put some pressure on the Opposition
to participate in the debate and facilitate the ordinance’s eventual ratification.
Moreover, food security is now a fig leaf that is expected to help cover UPA’s
tainted visage, thanks to all those scams and scandals. That things would actually
work out in this manner is something only time will tell.
In the past, whenever a political outfit has taken the common
citizen's gullibility for granted, it has invariably come to grief. The Garibi
Hatao slogan of the 1971 vintage could not save Indira Gandhi in 1977.
Similarly, the India Shining jingle could not salvage the NDA’s fortunes.
People are gradually becoming perceptive. They have started going by the
tactile results of various governmental decisions. Likewise, an increasing
number of voters is displaying reluctance to be swayed by tall promises and
alluring slogans. Bihar is a good example of this. In a state where caste has
been the deciding factor during various electoral battles for a very long time,
people have started looking at other options too. Fed-up with bad governance,
corruption and lawlessness, voters replaced Lalu with Nitish Kumar. If today
Nitish has become Bihar’s rising star with claims to having credentials for
becoming India’s future Prime Minister, it is thanks to his effective steps in
establishing the rule of law in the state, curbing corruption and rejuvenating
the government machinery. Of course, he is not a hundred percent success, but
considering what the situation was when he took over, his is an impressive
achievement. Therefore, the UPA will have to do a lot of introspection on this
score. Does it want to continue with its old ways and be cast into history’s
dustbin, or would it like to go in for redemption? The time for finding answer
to this poser is fast running out for it.
Published in The Financial World dated 11 July 2013
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