Now that the QUAD has been declared an informal
grouping rather than NATO’s Indo-Pacific equivalent, India essentially remains
without a formal military or strategic alliance. There are a couple of
trilateral arrangements like Indonesia, Japan and India; or Japan, India and
Australia; but these are insufficient for meeting the Chinese threats from
land, air and sea. Even Vietnam is not India’s ally although both countries are
on the same page concerning China. Going by the Afghanistan experience, we
cannot count on Americans or other Western powers for any meaningful strategic
support. India will have to go it alone in case hostilities break out with
China and Pakistan.
Challenges
The only genuine ally India ever had was the Soviet
Union, which enabled India to liberate Bangladesh despite military pressures
from China and America. But the Soviet Union is history now. Its successor Russia
and China are allies. India might be able to buy military hardware from Russia
and even benefit from midrange technological transfers, but cannot expect Russia
to become its all-weather friend. Similarly, we can buy submarines and other
military hardware from France but cannot expect them to become active strategic
allies.
India’s position becomes all the more precarious when
we look at the South Asian scenario. The SAARC is virtually dead. It had the
potential of turning into an economic powerhouse with strategic advantages. But
thanks to the trust deficiency among its members, SAARC is no more a workable
proposition. We may blame the China-Pak mischiefs for this, but India will have
to bear its share of the blame too. In the last few years, China has made deep
inroads into India’s backyard. Sri Lanka, Nepal and Maldives are now the
Dragon’s client states. Burma is already in its camp. Bangladesh looks askance
at India’s domestic policies involving Muslims and may well respond positively
to Chinese overtures as insurance against possible Indian belligerence. Bhutan
is with India not out of love but because it fears China more. Afghanistan is
in turmoil but firmly in the grip of anti-India forces nurtured by Pakistan and
China. Let us not forget that China is enabling Pakistan to become a major
player in South Asia to keep India’s aspirations in check.
The Way Ahead
The only silver lining right now is how India has
begun to counter China’s debt-trap policy in Sri Lanka. But, this needs to be
built upon assiduously to regain the trust of our neighbouring countries.
There is an urgent need to recalibrate India’s
worldview, which is guided by the Nagpur brand of domestic politics. Whatever
international goodwill India had earned under the prime ministerships of Nehru,
Indira Gandhi, Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh has dissipated considerably. They
looked at the world through a secular prism. Ideology mattered, but India’s
interests were kept supreme. So, India benefitted as much from the socialist
world as from the capitalist while retaining its unique identity as a shining
beacon of liberal democracy in the topsy-turvy Third World. The government
needs to reverse the steady slide into illiberalism, with unmistakable
totalitarian features. Another challenge that needs to be met is the eradication
of corruption and the rise of crony capitalism. Only then can we hope to see
the resumption of foreign investment in India’s industrial and tertiary
sectors. We cannot afford the capital migrating from India. The recent closure
of business in India by the Ford Motor Company should be a wake-up call.
India needs to bring the economic growth back on
track. With China regressing into the anti-capitalist mindset, there is every
chance of the big business houses looking at India as a promising destination
for their investments. If Qualcomm decides to move to India, the economic and
technological spinoffs would be immense. And there are several such MNCs
headquartered in Japan, the USA, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea etc that may
follow suit. But, and this is a big but, India needs to get rid of the formidable
red tape and the all-pervading corruption.
Then there is the issue of Chief Ministers running
amok in their states. In Uttar Pradesh, police appear to have the licence to
kill anybody and play havoc with rules of law. This reflects poorly on the country’s
image as a constitutional democracy where the rule of law is supreme. Once this
negative image catches on there will be adverse implications for industrial and
economic growth on an unprecedented scale.
Equally important is the sorting out of the extra-governmental
elements interfering in India’s domestic and economic policies. Mindless
jingoistic campaigns may fetch the BJP a few votes but will project India’s
image as an intolerant and unstable polity. If the semi-official media outlets
like Organiser and Panchjanya keep threatening prestigious Indian corporates
like Infosys as antinational and MNCs like Amazon as East India Company Mark 2,
we can kiss goodbye to the dreams of becoming a major economic and military
power.
Let us not forget that until a few years back, India’s
double-digit economic growth was expected to enable India to equal if not
overtake the Chinese economy in a couple of decades. But demonetisation and
subsequent economic mismanagement, and the coronavirus pandemic, sent the Indian
economy into a tailspin. For the first time, it registered negative growth.
Unemployment shot up to unprecedented peaks.
Lessons should not only be learnt but better-informed
policy decisions need to be taken to accelerate India’s economic growth and development.
Internal and External Security
India must secure its backyard. With the US forces
abandoning Afghanistan to its fate, it is an open season for various terror
groups in the Subcontinent. China and Pakistan will certainly exploit the
situation to their advantage. However, the Afghanistan based terror groups may
step up their activities to destabilise Pakistan too, thus making China’s
underbelly more vulnerable than it already is. This, in turn, may create an
unforeseen situation for India and other countries in the region.
India needs to be prepared in advance for any such eventuality.
First, we need to fill up the fault lines within. Bigotry and intolerance in domestic politics have
adversely affected our foreign policy. So, it has become imperative for India
to go back to the ideals espoused by our constitution’s founding fathers. If
India wants to be respected as a powerful and stable democracy there is no
other way. This will certainly provide the much-needed ballast to our
diplomatic efforts towards reviving cordial relations with the neighbouring
countries. Economic cooperation can take the shape of joint ventures in such
areas as tourism, hi-tech and agriculture-based industries. Pakistan needs to
be made to understand that its real interests lie with South Asian cooperation
rather than hitching on to one foreign power or another – the United States
earlier and China now – which has done immense harm to its economy, polity and
civil society at large.
On the military front, although India has been
encouraging private sector participation in the production of military
hardware, much more needs to be done. The poor economic performance and lagging
defence production have forced India to acquire older MiG 29s and Mirage 2000s
and Arjuna tanks. Obviously, something has gone wrong with our modernisation
plans, which is unforgivable under the circumstances. We don’t need mere modern
weapon systems but futuristic platforms too for conducting wars on land, sea,
air, space and cyberspace. We need to invest in hi-tech research and
development. Moreover, India needs to leverage its potential as a lucrative
market to establish joint ventures for the production of such platforms. There
should be no dearth of willing partners. Israel, France, Sweden and the USA
among the traditional suppliers of weapon systems, and Japan among the rising
ones come to mind readily. Russia is already engaged in several joint projects
in the manufacture of missile systems. South Korea, France and Great Britain,
along with Russia, are potential partners for the production of submarines and
various types of warships.
India needs a political leadership with a strong
commitment to building a modern, secular, stable and powerful India, where
science and technology will not be subjugated by dangerously regressive
mindsets which guide the actions of certain influential segments of the present
government.
We don’t need jumla-spouters and self-styled gurus to
run our country. We need leaders with a truly scientific mindset and a vision
untainted by parochialism and jingoism. The Nehruvian approach to the Idea of
India is wise, pragmatic and principled.
Let us hope wisdom dawns on all of us who elect our
representatives.
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