The world is changing faster than ever, and old ideas about geopolitics, geostrategy, and trade are being reshaped. The world economy is splitting into blocs. Trade and investment are now growing faster within friendly groups than across rivals, and supply chains are shifting to trusted partners. This makes the system more shock-resistant but less efficient. UNCTAD reported global trade at about 33 trillion dollars in 2024, with growth into 2025, but warned of volatility. The WTO also cut trade forecasts in April 2025 due to tariff risks and shipping troubles. Corridors like Meridian, EWC, INSTC, and IMEC must work in this environment.
Nations are urgently seeking new trade routes and reliable partners. The Meridian Highway is one such big project. It is a privately financed toll road planned across western Russia, from the Kazakhstan–Russia border to the Belarus–Russia border. This highway will form Russia’s section of the Europe–Western China (EWC) corridor, an 8,000 km route designed to connect China, Central Asia, Russia, and the European Union more quickly. If completed, it will let trucks move across Russia without passing through major cities, reducing fuel use and travel time. The project is expected to cost over 600 billion rubles, supported by private investors and development banks. Though delays have slowed progress, land acquisition and design work continue, showing its importance to Eurasian trade and connectivity.
How Meridian fits into the Europe–Western China corridor
The project is a stitched route of highways and expressways running from Lianyungang in China to Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. The EWC vision promises roughly 10–12 days for door-to-door trucking between northeastern China and European markets—several weeks faster than ocean freight during normal times—though real-world performance depends on border procedures, road conditions and demand. Russia and China have also been upgrading cross-border bridges and links that feed various corridors. These investments do not replace Meridian, but they help channel cargo into overland routes that Meridian aims to carry westward.
Where the project stands in 2025
The picture in mid-2025 is mixed. The Meridian project faces several formidable obstacles. The fundraising environment has toughened after 2022 because of sanctions. The preparatory work, like land acquisition, design and environmental studies, has not completed.
Why Meridian Counts Beyond Russia
The Meridian Highway is more than a road across Russia. It represents a big shift in how trade and strategy are being shaped in Eurasia.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Moscow worked hard to cut dependence on Western markets and move trade toward Asia. China became its key partner. Bilateral trade surged to a record 240–245 billion dollars in 2023–24. In early 2025, trade dipped about 9% year-on-year but stayed much higher than pre-2022 levels. A direct road to Europe through Russia, linked to China via Kazakhstan, matches this pivot perfectly. It makes trade faster and less vulnerable to sanctions.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) includes many road, rail, and port projects across Eurasia. Russia promotes Meridian as its own project, but it overlaps with BRI routes and China’s Europe–Western China (EWC) corridor map. Even if China does not fund it directly, the road serves Beijing’s goals. It helps exports move faster and reduces dependence on vulnerable routes like the Red Sea or Suez Canal. These concerns became urgent after disruptions in global shipping since 2023.
If goods can travel from Asia to Europe by truck in just 10–12 days with smooth customs, then shipping sanctions or blockades lose some power. This explains why the U.S., Europe, and Japan watch Meridian closely. They are also developing rival projects like the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to avoid over-reliance on Russian or Chinese routes.
Europe faces a tough choice. A reliable land route could cut costs and delivery times for European industries. But it would also deepen reliance on Russia and indirectly on China. This clashes with Europe’s strategy of sanctioning Russia and reducing dependence on Chinese technology and goods. In 2024, the EU imposed duties on Chinese electric vehicles, showing its harder line. By 2025, these measures were advancing toward final approval.
For the U.S., Meridian weakens its leverage over global shipping and makes sanctions harder to enforce. Washington has tightened secondary sanctions on Russia’s trade since 2022, including targeting Chinese banks and firms. Japan, meanwhile, pushes supply chain diversification. It supports Central Asian routes that avoid Russia and invests more in Southeast Asia while aligning with the U.S. and EU.
What This Means for India
Economic Stakes
India is not part of the Meridian or the Europe–Western China (EWC) corridor. This is a challenge. For exporters in western and northern India, reaching Central Asia and eastern Europe will remain slower and costlier compared to China once Meridian is ready. To avoid losing out, India must make its own land–sea routes faster, cheaper, and more reliable. Otherwise, China-led networks will gain a strong timing advantage.
India’s trade with Central Asia is still small, though it has been growing. China dominates this region. To reduce the gap, India has been building its own alternatives. The key projects are the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Iran and Azerbaijan, and access to Iran’s Chabahar Port. A major step came in May 2024 when India signed a 10-year deal to develop and run Chabahar. This port is crucial because it gives India reliable entry to Central Asia without depending on Pakistan’s routes.
Another option is the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC). It was first announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. But conflicts in the Middle East have delayed progress. Still, both European and American officials keep supporting the idea. In February 2025, the EU and India discussed IMEC as a long-term diversification plan. Real progress will depend on political stability, and its rollout will likely be slow and phased.
India also sees Central Asia as a key source of minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. These are vital for batteries, electronics, and clean-energy technology. In January 2025, India launched a National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM). It is now seeking cooperation with Central Asian states for joint exploration and supply. This was highlighted during the 4th India–Central Asia Dialogue held in New Delhi in June 2025. Competing with China requires India to secure dependable mineral supplies along with strong trade routes.
India does not need to build a copy of Meridian. Instead, it must cut travel time, improve reliability, and lower total costs on its own routes—especially INSTC through Chabahar and IMEC when possible. Exporters will choose corridors that deliver speed and certainty.
Security and Diplomacy
If Meridian is completed, it will add to the growing trade links between Russia and China. For India, this creates a strategic challenge. Russia is India’s historic arms supplier, but China is its main security rival. India must balance by keeping good ties with Moscow while slowly reducing dependence on Russian weapons. Although imports from Russia have declined, they are still significant.
As the West increases sanctions on Russia, Indian companies working near these routes will need strong compliance systems. Otherwise, they risk secondary sanctions. This will become more important if land corridors are used to bypass maritime checks.
India has been deepening ties with the five Central Asian republics. The June 2025 dialogue in New Delhi covered counter-terrorism, connectivity, and critical minerals. This shows India’s approach: combine economics and security. Secure transport links will bring resources to India, while joint security work will keep those links safe.
What India Should Do Next
The world is changing fast. Big infrastructure projects like Russia’s Meridian Highway are reshaping trade routes. For India, the challenge is to respond with practical steps that strengthen its own position.
India already has a long-term agreement to operate Chabahar port. The focus now should be on action. Berth capacity and equipment at Shahid Beheshti terminal must be expanded. Customs systems should be digitised quickly to save time. Regular feeder services from India’s west coast need to be locked in. On the INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor), India should push for smooth transit through Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. Dry ports, customs checks and commercial contracts must be predictable and reliable. None of this requires a big geopolitical breakthrough—it only needs efficient execution.
The India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC) faces political uncertainty. Instead of waiting for perfect conditions, India should begin with the pieces that can work now, like the India–UAE–East Mediterranean link. Using existing rail and ports can reduce costs. High-risk sections can be treated as later phases. Keeping the EU engaged helps with funding and setting global standards.
Central Asia has critical minerals that India needs for future industries. Recent dialogues have opened opportunities, but money and effort are required. India should invest in joint surveys, secure long-term supply agreements, and build processing capacity at home. This will stop raw ores from being shipped out to other countries and reduce dependence on China. It will also tie Central Asia to India’s economic growth.
India must carefully balance its defence and connectivity strategies. On defence, it should secure Russian spares and stockpiles, diversify suppliers, expand co-production with partners, and speed up indigenous programmes to keep options open. Meridian shows how strategy and infrastructure intertwine. For India, Eurasia is not about one corridor but many, and its real strength will come from dependable execution and integration with global trade networks rather than symbolic ribbon-cuttings.
Meridian Highway, China, Russia, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, India–Middle East–Europe Corridor, International North-South Transport Corridor, European Union, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Europe–Western China, Infrastructure, Tariffs, Ukraine, Moscow, Putin, Trump, Zelensky, Middle East, Shahid Baheshti, Chabahar, UNCTAD, WTO
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