Showing posts with label Opinion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

NSS 2025: America Finally Stops Pretending to Save the World and Starts Saving Itself (or So It Claims)

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Prologue: The Day Atlas Filed for Medical Leave

The unpredictable Donald Trump has done it again, and how!

December 2025 shall forever be remembered as the month America made its grand announcement to humanity: Listen, world, our back hurts. We carried you through the Cold War, the War on Terror, the War on Poverty, the War on Drugs, the War on Common Sense... and now we’re done.

Yes, the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) is essentially a doctor’s certificate for Atlas, declaring him unfit for further heavy lifting. After decades of cracking under the self-imposed responsibility of supporting the world order, Washington has finally admitted it would like to lie down, apply a warm compress, and focus on stretching exercises like “reshoring,” “sovereignty yoga,” and “border security deep breathing.”

Gone are the days when the U.S. would solemnly declare that freedom, democracy, human rights, and carbon neutrality were moral imperatives. The new script proclaims that such things are still loveable in theory but vastly inconvenient in practice—especially when tariffs can achieve the same purpose with fewer sermons.

The NSS 2025 is, therefore, not just a strategy document. It is a memoir, a midlife crisis, a reluctant confession, and perhaps even a breakup letter to the world order it once passionately courted. And like all breakup letters, it insists that “it’s not you… it’s us,” while simultaneously hinting that actually it is you, Europe, with your silly migration policies and dependence on Russian gas.

Sovereignty, Strength, Self-Reliance: America Rejoins the Gym

The NSS proudly outlines America’s ambition to become strong, sovereign, self-sufficient, and thoroughly uninterested in other people’s business unless it happens to be profitable or strategically irresistible. One can imagine Washington waking up one morning, looking in the mirror, and gasping, “My God, I’ve let myself go. I need to rebuild my industrial capacity, tighten my supply-chain core, and stop letting foreigners into my economic bloodstream.”

Thus begins America’s new fitness programme.

In this gym routine, immigration is not cardio—it is cholesterol. Migration inflows are rebranded as clogged arteries of civilisation, requiring immediate intervention through border walls, patrol drones, and a national diet free of humanitarian impulses. The NSS avoids saying this explicitly, but one can sense the subtext: “We’re not racist; we’re just allergic to demographic uncertainty.”

Strength, of course, includes military might—the sort of might that reminds the world that while America may no longer wish to be Atlas, it fully intends to continue owning Atlas-branded weapons systems. The strategy promises the most advanced missiles, space capabilities, cyber arsenals, quantum networks, hypersonic toys, and nuclear deterrents that would make even Zeus consider early retirement. 

Self-reliance completes the fitness triad. America will now produce its own semiconductors, refine its own rare earths, pump its own oil, mine its own coal, and build its own back-up supply chains in case China sneezes in the general direction of a microchip. Renewable energy is gently escorted to the waiting room while oil, gas, and coal are called back into the CEO’s office for a performance review that ends with: “Congratulations, you're promoted. Again.”

Transactional Diplomacy: Friendships With Receipts

If the old American order was a sentimental sitcom about global cooperation, the NSS 2025 rewrites foreign policy as a no-nonsense business school case study. In this new arrangement, the U.S. sees itself not as “leader of the free world” but as “CEO of America Incorporated,” and alliances are treated less like marriages and more like subscription services. Washington will now re-evaluate whether NATO, the Quad, and various bilateral commitments offer sufficient return on investment. A partner unwilling to pay 2 percent of its GDP on defence is no longer an ally—it is an expense.

This managerial diplomacy is refreshingly honest. Gone is the romantic drivel about shared values, human dignity, or multilateral harmony. Instead, the world is gently informed that every diplomatic engagement comes with terms and conditions, cancellation penalties, and a renewed emphasis on “reciprocity,” which is diplomatic code for “Do what we want, or we will charge you tariffs and call it national security.”

The NSS also embraces the close cooperation of government and private industry, a phrase that historically means “lobbyists have entered the chat.” Tech giants, defence contractors, biotech firms, and space innovators will now form an unofficial politburo that decides national priorities. Human rights may get a polite nod at conferences, but AI supremacy gets the budget.

Realism as Ideology: The New Sermon on the Mount

It is amusing how the NSS claims to reject “ideology” while passionately embracing the ideology of “pragmatic realism.” This is similar to a person saying they are done with dating drama but immediately joining six dating apps because “this time it’s different.”

The NSS insists America will no longer intervene in foreign nations unless directly threatened, which sounds admirably restrained until one reads the next two paragraphs detailing how the U.S. will actively mediate the Ukraine-Russia conflict, steer Iranian-Israeli de-escalation, monitor the India-Pakistan nuclear shadow, and stabilise African flashpoints. This is not restraint; it is multitasking.

America also asserts it will avoid nation-building, which is technically true—because why build when one can influence, advise, recalibrate, adjust, pressure, or gently threaten within a rules-based-don’t-ask-who-made-the-rules order?

The guiding principle is “peace through overwhelming strength,” a phrase best understood as “peace, but with more aircraft carriers.” 

Europe: A Continent Scolded Into Responsibility

The NSS’s European chapter reads like a passive-aggressive letter written by a disappointed parent to a child who refuses to stop eating sugar. Europe is told its immigration policies are naïve, its political integration misguided, its defence spending inadequate, and its strategic autonomy delusional.

At the same time, Washington still expects European nations to fund Ukraine’s recovery, deter Russia, modernise their armies, reduce dependency on Moscow and Beijing, resist populism unless it is the American-approved variety, and maintain unity despite being constantly criticised for lacking backbone.

The document delicately suggests that Europe should “negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine,” a polite way of saying, “We tried sanctions, aid, weapons, and diplomacy—but now we’d like a break. You handle it.”

Europe, in response, appears to be nodding politely while slowly backing out of the room.

The Indo-Pacific: Where the Real Drama Continues

The Indo-Pacific remains the stage where America projects its favourite narrative: “China is rising, and we are not amused.” The NSS devotes enormous energy to explaining how Washington will out-compete Beijing through alliances, decoupling, tech restrictions, military presence, and rules-based assertiveness.

India receives special attention as a “pivotal partner,” which is Washington code for, “We need you to annoy China but please don’t ask us to stop Pakistan from harassing you.” The U.S. flatters India’s strategic autonomy while silently wishing India would become slightly less autonomous and slightly more predictable in supporting American interests.

Japan and Australia are reassured that the U.S. will stand by them—provided they maintain high military readiness, consistent defence budgets, and a readiness to intercept undesirable Chinese behaviour in waterways that the NSS likes to call “international waters” and China likes to call “ours.”

The Western Hemisphere: The Monroe Doctrine Rises From the Dead

You can almost hear the ghost of James Monroe chuckling with delight as the NSS declares that America will once again treat its hemisphere as a neighbourhood that requires strict supervision. Migration is elevated from a social challenge to an existential threat. Drug cartels are portrayed as hydra-headed monsters that can only be tamed by more surveillance, more indiscriminate interdiction, and occasionally, more helpful reminders that sovereignty is flexible when America feels strongly enough about something.

Canada is politely informed that while it remains a dear friend, it must not let its domestic politics interfere with America’s need for secure supply chains, oil pipelines, and a general sense of northern order.

Latin America, meanwhile, is invited to join U.S.-led energy and trade partnerships—but only after agreeing not to flirt with China, Russia, or anything that looks remotely like socialism.

The Middle East: From Grand Vision to Minimalist Decor

The Middle East section of the NSS reads like a landlord who has decided to stop renovating the property and focus only on essential repairs. Gone are the days of democracy promotion, long-term commitments, and regime-change fantasies. Washington now prefers a minimalist approach: limited counterterrorism assistance, steady energy flows, crisis management on a need-to-intervene basis, and the occasional drone strike when absolutely necessary.

This new approach gives the impression that America is Marie Kondo-ing the Middle East. If a conflict does not “spark joy,” it is politely folded and placed on a shelf until further notice.

Israel and Iran are asked to tone down their enthusiasm for mutual destruction because America is tired and needs a nap.

Africa: The Art of Extracting Without Offending (Too Much)

The NSS expresses deep affection for Africa’s minerals. The continent’s people, politics, and developmental needs are acknowledged in the document with the same emotional investment one might give to a neighbour’s cat—pleased it exists, not overly concerned about its internal issues.

Washington promises partnerships based on trade and supply-chain resilience, which sounds generous until one realises it means “We would like your cobalt and lithium, please, and we would prefer that China and Russia do not get them first.”

Development aid is politely trimmed. Democracy promotion is queued for later review. Security cooperation is limited unless vital minerals are threatened or China builds another infrastructure project without consulting Washington.

Strategic Paradoxes: America Wants Everything at Once

One of the greatest joys of reading the NSS 2025 is observing its internal contradictions performing gymnastics. America wants to reduce global commitments while increasing global influence. It wants partners who are independent but obedient. It wants to protect global trade while using tariffs as weapons. It wants to avoid wars while building the sharpest set of military teeth in human history.

This is not strategy—it is ambitious multitasking. It is the foreign-policy equivalent of wanting to lose weight while eating cake, get eight hours of sleep while staying up watching geopolitical TikToks, and maintain global dominance while pretending not to want it.

Analysts Respond: Equal Parts Panic and Popcorn

Scholars are alarmed by the NSS’s cultural rhetoric and fear it resembles a global TED Talk delivered by a nationalist interior minister. Economists worry that protectionism will lead to retaliation and disrupted supply chains. European leaders sigh, realising they must now choose between raising defence budgets or listening to American lectures for another decade. Human-rights activists are distraught that the U.S. has demoted moral leadership to an optional add-on.

Meanwhile, realists smile with satisfaction. To them, the NSS is merely America finally getting a haircut and admitting that idealism was always just a convincing wig.

Consequences: A More Fragmented World and a More Honest America

The NSS 2025 may accelerate the shift toward a multipolar world where every nation looks out for itself. Climate cooperation may slow down because America has chosen oil and coal as nostalgic comfort foods. Human rights may lose the only heavyweight champion who claimed to care. Tech blocs may harden into Cold War 2.0. Arms races may resume with renewed vigour. Allies may drift into strategic autonomy or strategic confusion.

Yet in all this, one must admit: the NSS is brutally honest. America is tired. America is anxious. America is self-interested. America is no longer pretending otherwise.

Conclusion: Hypocrisy Unmasked—But Not Removed

Has America confessed its Big Power hypocrisy? Yes, in its way. It has peeled off the glitter, the slogans, and the speeches about world citizenship. But it has not renounced power. It has simply updated its branding.

The global village utopia is retired; the fortress has been renovated; the sermon has been replaced with a service contract; and the world is politely invited to adapt.

America is not stepping down from global leadership. It is merely changing job description—from “guardian of humanity” to “manager of selective global influence.” And the NSS 2025 is its comically elaborate cover letter. 


US National Security Strategy 2025, NSS 2025, American foreign policy, US global power, political geopolitics, US hypocrisy, American empire, US realism foreign policy, end of liberal world order, decline of globalism, America First, US military dominance, global order, superpower hypocrisy, US isolationism, transactional diplomacy, US China rivalry, Indo Pacific geopolitics, NATO burden sharing, Monroe Doctrine, US immigration policy,  human rights hypocrisy, geopolitical analysis, international relations, power politics, American exceptionalism, global village myth, strategic realism, world order transformation


Friday, December 12, 2025

Putin's December 2025 Visit to India: Geopolitical Ripples and the Trajectory of Indo-Russian Relations


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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s December visit to India unfolded amid rising global tensions and sharp Western criticism. Days before his arrival, the British, German, and French ambassadors published a blistering op-ed in India calling him a “war criminal” and attacking Russia’s “unprovoked” invasion of Ukraine—an unusual diplomatic move that underscored the West’s urgency to isolate Moscow. Yet India welcomed Putin with full honours, held a joint press conference, and signed more than a dozen agreements. These included an Economic Cooperation Programme till 2030 to raise bilateral trade from $68 billion in 2024 to $100 billion, commitments of uninterrupted fuel supplies despite U.S. sanctions, defence upgrades to Su-30MKI jets and BrahMos systems, and progress on the INSTC to cut freight times by 40%. The visit reflected a pragmatic, interest-driven partnership.

Outcomes and Impacts on Key Stakeholders

India-Russia Stakes in the Indian Ocean

India and Russia share an important but often understated stake in the Indian Ocean, where their post-Putin-visit cooperation is likely to expand. For India, the region is its maritime backyard and the key to security, stability, and strategic autonomy. It is vital for trade and energy flows, and for countering China’s growing naval presence, strengthened by the “String of Pearls” network of ports and facilities such as Gwadar, Hambantota, and Djibouti. These developments have intensified India’s need for reliable partners for naval modernisation and for maintaining a multipolar balance without excessive dependence on the West. For Russia, the Indian Ocean offers coveted access to warm waters and a way to sustain global relevance at a time when Europe has largely shut its doors. Moscow seeks a bigger role in Indo-Pacific energy routes, port logistics, and defence-industrial linkages. A stronger presence in the region—through joint naval exercises, technology collaboration, and potential logistics agreements with India—helps Russia maintain visibility and influence despite Western isolation.

Europe: Undermining Sanctions and Exposing Divisions

For Europe, the summit was a sobering reminder of the limits of its Russia-containment strategy. Still grappling with energy shocks triggered by the Ukraine war, European governments have tightened sanctions to cripple Moscow’s war effort. Yet India’s growing dependence on discounted Russian oil—nearly 40% of its crude imports in 2025—has weakened these measures. Putin’s assurance of steady supplies, along with ongoing discussions on new reactors at Kudankulam, signals deeper Indo-Russian energy ties and further reduces Europe’s leverage.

Economically, the $100 billion trade target risks diverting Indian interest away from European green-tech partnerships, as Moscow offers cheaper options in fertilisers, energy, and defence spares. Geopolitically, the visit strengthens Russia’s narrative of a rising multipolar order, encouraging other Global South states to skirt Western sanctions. Europe may respond with tighter scrutiny of Indian firms involved in transshipping Russian goods, potentially complicating EU–India free-trade talks. Meanwhile, Putin’s remark that Russia is “ready for war if Europe initiates one” serves as a thinly veiled warning against escalation. Overall, the visit pushes Europe toward greater reliance on U.S. LNG—while straining ties with an increasingly assertive India.

United States: A Cold Shower Amid Trump 2.0

Washington has long seen the Indo-Russian partnership as a hurdle to its Indo-Pacific strategy and has repeatedly urged India to cut its dependence on Russian arms and oil. But the visit signalled clearly that India will not act as a junior partner in any U.S. plan to contain Russia or China. New defence co-production efforts—particularly the expanded joint manufacturing of BrahMos systems—also challenge America’s dominance in India’s $75-billion defence modernisation programme. The summit is unlikely to please Washington because it highlights India’s desire to hedge against U.S. unpredictability. With India running a $30-billion trade surplus, Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs could become real, adding further strain. Yet the U.S. still needs India as a key QUAD partner against China, and pushing too hard risks driving Delhi closer to Moscow or even Beijing. The irony is that while U.S. outreach to Russia has made no progress on Ukraine, India positions itself as a neutral player. Washington may now speed up the iCET tech plan, but likely at higher costs, even as India’s INSTC push builds sanction-resistant Eurasian routes that dilute U.S. pressure tools.

Pakistan: Heightened Insecurities and Regional Disequilibrium

Moscow’s renewed defence focus on India—through Su-30 upgrades, air-defence cooperation, and expanded joint production—further tilts the regional military balance against Islamabad. Although Russia briefly courted Pakistan after 2014 with limited sales like Mi-35 helicopters, the 2025 agreements firmly prioritise Delhi and may embolden India’s counter-terrorism posture along the Line of Control.

Geopolitically, the visit deepens Pakistan’s isolation. India’s integration into the INSTC, routed via Iran, bypasses Pakistan and undercuts Gwadar’s strategic value under CPEC, reducing even China’s leverage. With FATF pressure and a battered economy, Islamabad may seek renewed U.S. engagement for F-16 support, though Trump’s “America First” stance may limit assistance. The Indo-Russian anti-terror pledge, implicitly naming groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, further strains Russia-Pakistan ties and raises the risk of sharper Indo-Pak friction under a volatile nuclear backdrop.

China: A Balancing Act in the Dragon-Bear-Tiger Triangle

China's response is nuanced, blending wariness with strategic calculus. As Russia's "no-limits" partner, Beijing benefits from Moscow's pivot to Asia, but India's warming ties threaten Sino-Russian exclusivity. The summit reviews the "full spectrum" partnership, including space and nuclear tech, positioning India as a counterweight to Chinese dominance in the Indian Ocean. BrahMos expansions enhance India's maritime deterrence, a direct hedge against China’s incursions in the South China Sea and LAC standoffs.

The $100 billion trade goal diversifies India's basket beyond Chinese imports, but Russian mediation could facilitate India-China détente. Putin's visit, defying Western isolation, mirrors Xi's Global South outreach, strengthening BRICS cohesion. Beijing may also take steps to deepen SCO engagements, but the INSTC—which rivals BRI—fragments Eurasian integration, forcing China to concede ground. Overall, it fosters a tripod dynamic: Russia balances the duo, preventing outright rivalry while amplifying collective heft against the West.

India: Empowerment Amid Autonomy

For India, the windfall is tangible. Energy security is fortified against volatile Brent prices, with Russian supplies ensuring GDP growth buffers. Defense self-reliance advances via localised BrahMos production, reducing import dependencies from 60% to under 40% by 2030. Trade diversification—from commodities to hi-tech—cushions against U.S. tariffs, while people-to-people ties, including 25th-anniversary cultural exchanges, bolster soft power. India’s "powerful global message" of non-alignment resonates domestically, elevating India's G20 presidency legacy.

Broader Geopolitical Reconfigurations

Globally, the summit accelerates multipolarity. It validates the Global South's sanction fatigue, with BRICS expansion gaining momentum for de-dollarisation via rupee-ruble settlements. Ukraine's shadow looms: Putin's "victory" claims, aired during the visit, underscore stalled talks, positioning India as a peace convener. This erodes U.S.-led unipolarity, fostering Eurasian corridors that link Mumbai to Murmansk, diluting Western naval primacy. Climate diplomacy intersects too—Russian Arctic routes aid India's green shipping goals. Risks include escalation if U.S. secondary sanctions bite, but upsides dominate: A more equitable order where middle powers like India dictate terms.

Forward Trajectory of Indo-Russian Relations

Defense: From Buyer to Co-Creator

Post-summit, defense cooperation will evolve from transactional to transformative. The Su-30MKI overhaul, valued at $4 billion, includes indigenous avionics integration, aiming for 70% local content by 2028. BrahMos NG (Next Generation) joint ventures will export to Southeast Asia, generating $2 billion revenues. Air defense pacts, potentially S-500 tech transfers, fortify India's layered shields against hypersonic threats. By 2030, co-development of sixth-gen fighters could materialise, blending Russian stealth with Indian AI, which will  make F-35 superfluous for the Indian Air Force. Maritime focus also intensifies: Akula submarine leases extend, with indigenous Scorpene variants incorporating Russian quieting tech. This "Make in India" synergy not only bolsters deterrence but positions both as arms exporters, challenging Western monopolies.

Education: Bridging Minds Across Continents

Education, often overlooked, will see exponential growth. The 25-year partnership milestone spurred 500 new scholarships for Indian students in Russian STEM programs, focusing on AI and nuclear engineering. Exchanges via Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Fund will double to 1,000 annually, emphasising Eurasian studies to counter Western narratives. Virtual platforms, like Rosatom-IGNOU collaborations, democratise access to Arctic research. Rosatom  is Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, responsible for nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons complex, uranium mining, fuel cycle operations, and nuclear exports. Some Russian universities run nuclear-related programmes in partnership with Rosatom. So, in the long term, this fosters a cadre of bilingual experts, underpinning hi-tech ties and soft power.

Trade: Diversification Beyond Discounts

In order to achieve their trade's $100 billion benchmark, diversification is essential. While energy dominates with 60% of volumes, the 2030 Programme targets manufacturing which would involve Russian fertilisers for Indian agri-exports and Indian pharma to Eurasian markets. Rupee-ruble mechanisms will settle 50% of deals, shielding against SWIFT exclusions. Investments are expected to surge. The energy giant Rosneft's $15 billion Sakhalin infusion meets India's $20 billion in Siberian infra. E-commerce bridges via Yandex-Flipkart tie-ups, while INSTC logistics cut costs, enabling just-in-time supply chains. By 2030, balanced flows—$50 billion each way—will embed resilience against global shocks.

Hi-Tech Cooperation: Fusion of Frontiers

Hi-tech cooperation between India and Russia spans multiple sectors and is evolving beyond traditional defense ties. In space, the two sides are working toward GLONASS–NavIC satellite navigational systems’ interoperability, which would give India more independence from the Chinese Beidou navigation system and give India a reliable navigation network. There are also plans for expanded lunar collaboration later in the decade. In nuclear energy, work at Kudankulam Units 3–6 continues with Russian assistance. Emerging fields such as AI and quantum communications feature collaborations between Rosatom’s research institutes and Indian partners like IITs, focusing on secure networks and advanced materials. Joint biotech projects aim to strengthen pandemic-response capabilities. Civil aviation cooperation—such as discussions on assembling Russia’s MC-21 aircraft in India—adds a competitive dimension to the sector. According to the joint statement, this wide-ranging technological partnership supports “socioeconomic and technological advancement” and includes dual-use innovations such as drone fleets suited for disaster management. Ethical safeguards, including agreements on data sovereignty and responsible technology use, are meant to build long-term trust.

Conclusion

Putin's December 2025 India visit was a geopolitical masterstroke, yielding outcomes that ripple far beyond bilateral gains. Europe and the U.S. confront sanction circumvention and alliance strains; Pakistan grapples with disequilibrium; China navigates a rivalrous equilibrium; and India emerges empowered. Globally, it heralds multipolarity's dawn, where strategic autonomy trumps coercion. Looking ahead, Indo-Russian ties will deepen asymmetrically—defense for security, education for intellect, trade for prosperity, hi-tech for innovation—forging a resilient axis in an unpredictable era. Clearly, Putin’s visit to India signals the dawn of a less unipolar and more equitable world. 


Russia, India, Putin, GLONASS–NavIC, Rosatom, IITs, Civil Aviation, Beidou navigation system, Rosneft, Siberian infra, STEM programs, Su-30MKI, defence deals, INSTC, BRI, CPEC. Pakistan, Nuclear Reactors, Kudankulam, Green Tech, Scorpene Submarines, Akula, LAC, Terrorism, Brahmos

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

When the Rupee Trembles: What India’s Currency Slide and IMF ‘C’ Grade Really Tell Us

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Is India’s economy groaning under heavy debt burden? Is the falling rupee an indicator of a worrisome economic situation? Is there no improvement in the country’s unemployment situation? The answers are quite surprising. 

Every once in a while, a single economic headline sends a tremor through public discourse. Over the past few days, that headline has been the Indian Rupee’s sudden slide toward—and, in some speculative corners, beyond—the psychologically daunting level of 100 against the U.S. Dollar, which has not happened as yet. But the very fact that people believe it will crash to triple digits tells us that confidence is wobbling.

The other headline that grabbed attention—a less glamorous but equally consequential one—came from Washington. The IMF’s Article IV report for 2025 assigned India a ‘C’ grade for the quality of its national accounts, the second-lowest rating on its A-to-D scale. Overnight, social media declared that India’s GDP figures were “fake,” that the growth story was over, and that “Viksit Bharat by 2047” was nothing more than a political fairy tale.

Both reactions—panic over the rupee, outrage over the grade—are emotionally understandable. But they miss the larger, complex reality. India’s economic narrative in late 2025 is not one of collapse or free fall. It is a story of strong domestic momentum mixed with external vulnerabilities, a story where data quality needs scrutiny, not cynicism, and where a currency slump is less an omen of doom than a reminder of how deeply India is now entangled in the volatile geopolitics of global trade.

Nevertheless, it does matter that the rupee has crossed the 90 mark. Because exchange rates are often as psychological as they are economic. Crossing 90 sends a signal—whether valid or not—that something is out of balance.

Why Is the Rupee Falling? A Reality Check

The rupee’s 4–5% depreciation this year stems mainly from external pressures rather than internal weakness. Aggressive U.S. tariffs, which have pushed effective rates on some Indian exports to nearly 38%, have hurt competitiveness. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn around $10 billion since mid-year, adding volatility. Meanwhile, a widening trade deficit driven by costlier imports and weak merchandise exports has increased external stress. With U.S. interest rates still high, global investors are fleeing to safer assets, putting further downward pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee, which has become one of Asia’s weaker performers in 2025.

However, the Indian Rupee (INR) has shown mixed performance against major Asian currencies in early December 2025, with general depreciation trends against the Japanese Yen (JPY), South Korean Won (KRW), and Singapore Dollar (SGD), while fluctuating slightly against the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The chart illustrates the percentage change in exchange rates (INR per unit of foreign currency) from December 1, 2025, as the baseline. A positive percentage indicates INR depreciation (weaker INR), while negative shows appreciation (stronger INR).

Is This a Crisis? No. Not Even Close.

With around $695 billion in forex, India’s robust reserves offer extensive protection from external problems. As of December 2025, India’s outstanding World Bank debt (IBRD + IDA) is about USD 39.3 billion, based on data available up to October 2025, and no major updates have altered this figure since. This is only around 5% of India’s total external debt of roughly USD 747 billion (June 2025), a modest share for the Bank’s largest borrower and one mainly used for long-term infrastructure, social, and development projects. India’s external debt-to-GDP ratio stands at about 19%, well below the 30% level usually considered risky for emerging markets, and World Bank loans amount to less than 1% of India’s projected USD 4.19 trillion GDP in 2025. With more than ten months of import cover in forex reserves and a resilient financial system highlighted in the IMF’s November 2025 review, India’s debt profile remains stable. World Bank lending is also largely concessional, lowering repayment burdens. Overall, India’s borrowing aligns with its development goals and remains comfortably sustainable, though global shocks or slower growth would warrant routine monitoring.

External debt is manageable at around 19% of GDP, which is a stronger position than most emerging economies with tighter financing issues. Strong foreign investment continues, reaching almost $44 billion in the initial five months of FY25/26, reflecting investor trust in India’s future. These strengths demonstrate the rupee’s decline is a test, not an upcoming crisis. India’s situation is not unique or alarming, as many currencies are weakening against the dollar during global tightening, and countries like Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia face similar issues. However, ignoring the depreciation entirely would be unwise, as a weaker rupee raises the prices of essential imports like oil, fertilisers, electronics, and industrial inputs—items India can’t easily replace. A slight depreciation usually increases inflation by about 0.2–0.3% in the coming quarters. The real issue is if India can handle these increasing outside pressures with its internal strengths.

The alarmist statements on India’s total debt burden are also unfounded. Based on the latest 2025 projections from sources like the IMF and other economic databases, India's general government gross debt stands at approximately 81% of GDP. This places it in the moderate range—higher than some emerging markets like Russia (15%) or Saudi Arabia (30%) but significantly lower than advanced economies like Japan (255%), Italy (135%), the United States (122%), and France (111%).

The IMF’s ‘C’ Grade: A Reality Check, Not a Final Verdict

India’s national accounts statistics received a ‘C’ grade from the IMF, which caused strong political reactions; critics accused data manipulation, and supporters saw the report as Western bias. Both sides are missing the mark. The IMF’s evaluation cites methodological flaws, not fraud. It has three main concerns: poor measurement of India’s informal sector, which employs almost 90% of its workers; Crucially, this grade applies only to a specific segment of India’s statistical system, not the entire framework. India’s data rating is ‘B,’ suggesting data is mostly reliable for economic analysis and policy, despite room for improvement.

Does This Mean India’s Growth Is Overstated?

According to the IMF, India’s growth numbers may be overstated by about 0.5 to 1%, but even after trimming the excess, India still outruns every other major economy. In other words, the debate is more about optics than outcomes. And the private-sector data boosts optimism. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been sitting comfortably above 59, signalling factories that are very much alive. Record-high e-way bill generation—the digital permits required for moving goods across states—shows trucks and warehouses are active. Additionally, 21 million new jobs in the year to September, reflects the economy’s health. The IMF isn’t saying the growth is fake; it’s simply pointing out that India’s fast-expanding, partly informal economy needs better tools to measure what is actually happening.

India’s Domestic Engine: Strong, Synchronised, and Unusually Well-Balanced

The scope of India’s internal economic growth in 2025 is a key feature. GDP growth was 6.5% in FY2024/25, then accelerated to 7.8% in Q1 FY2025/26; the trend is still strong, despite data concerns. Personal spending increased by over 7%, while investment saw nearly 9% growth, and service exports stayed at a high level. Inflation also reached historic lows, with CPI at 0.25% in October, thanks to GST, harvests, and base effects. Even underlying inflation remained within the RBI’s comfort zone. Indian employment, usually a weak spot, has unexpectedly strengthened, creating about 21 million jobs in the last year in both cities and the countryside. The expansion has also been aided by banking conditions: the RBI’s 100-basis-point rate cuts since February led to increased credit growth, higher retail spending, renewed borrowing by small businesses, and controlled non-performing assets. Strong demand, low inflation, more jobs, and good credit make India different than most large economies. India’s domestic economy is a bright spot in 2025, outperforming China, Brazil, South Africa, the Eurozone, and the United States on multiple key domestic measures.

But certain problems should worry us.

The External Weaknesses: India’s Achilles’ Heel

India is susceptible to global shocks, and the rupee’s fall shows underlying issues. The trade deficit poses the biggest, ongoing problem. The Current Account Deficit, at 0.6% of GDP in FY24/25 and forecast to grow to 1% this year, masks underlying problems: struggling merchandise exports, high oil imports, and rising electronics imports, even with production incentives. If India doesn’t modernise its manufacturing, broaden its supply chains, and get better free trade deals, the rupee will stay susceptible to outside volatility. Another critical area of concern is how foreign portfolio investors act. FPIs see India as a volatile, high-return market, sensitive to global rates, tariffs, and politics. The irregular flow of money causes market instability in stocks and bonds, and this movement affects the currency, making the rupee more reactive to world finance.

A Balanced Scorecard for Late 2025

India’s economic reality is revealed by examining key indicators. Strong growth persists, potentially over 6.5% after revisions, with low inflation providing relief for consumers and the RBI. India is indeed creating more jobs, but too many of them are low-quality—informal, insecure, low-wage, or without benefits—while not enough stable, productive, well-paying jobs are being generated in manufacturing, modern services, and skilled sectors.

Fiscal policy is fairly controlled, and the deficit target is 4.4%. External balances seem steady but are vulnerable, with a rising deficit and rupee issues. Also, India’s large foreign exchange reserves protect against external shocks. The assessment is complicated by poor data quality, especially in the informal sector. In general, this depicts an economy that’s neither failing nor excelling, but a resilient system seeking equilibrium in a volatile world.

The Bigger Picture: What the Rupee and IMF Grade Reveal About India’s Path Ahead

India’s economic issues reveal a truth: it’s big enough to be watched but not strong enough for global instability. This moment is defined by four themes. India’s most pressing need is improved data; start with the census, household surveys, and tools for the informal sector. When data lacks credibility, investors pause, governments misuse funds, and the public’s faith weakens. Next, India has to diversify its trade, since its exports are too exposed to tariffs and geopolitical instability. India’s long-term success also depends on boosting productivity. India’s Total Factor Productivity has grown by around 1.4% yearly since 2000, and must significantly improve for India to achieve high-income status by 2047. India now requires closer alignment between financial and monetary policy. The nation can match fiscal tightening with monetary ease, thanks to low inflation and high growth.

Conclusion: A Moment of Sobriety, Not Panic

India faces a pivotal moment. The rupee’s decline to 90 isn’t a disaster, but a sign of weakness. The IMF’s ‘C’ grade doesn’t condemn, but it should cause us to reflect. The sensational headline about crossing 100 isn’t the real story of the Indian economy in 2025. The deeper story is about a strong internal economy, but vulnerable externally.

India’s rupee will become a small note if it improves statistical capacity, trade resilience, and productivity reforms in the present time. If it doesn’t, today’s worry may become tomorrow’s truth.

India’s economy is still robust, showing great potential, though it needs some adjustments.



IMF, GDP. WORLD BANK, Rupee, Yuan, Dollar, Yen, Ruble, WON, Singapore, South Korea, India, USA, Japan, Exchange Rate, Indian Economy, Growth Rate

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