Chained and Shackled: How Ancient Slavery Evolved Into Today's $150 Billion Human Trafficking Industry

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The shocking deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants from the USA chained and shackled has brought the menace of human trafficking into the limelight like never before. Let us be very clear, this is not a modern phenomenon. Human trafficking is an ancient and enduring crime. It is a persistent shadow across all civilisations and throughout history. The story of human trafficking stretches from ancient India to the globally connected present. It reveals a continuous pattern of exploitation. Paradoxically, it also highlights the remarkable resilience and ongoing fight for human dignity. A prime example of this global tragedy is India’s history, which illustrates the persistence of exploitative systems across centuries. To comprehensively understand this dark phenomenon, we must look beyond India. This will make us realise that human trafficking has been rampant in Asia and worldwide for thousands of years. I shall try to trace the development of human trafficking in India, drawing comparisons with other parts of the world and demonstrating the grim reality of its contemporary existence.

Ancient Roots: The Foundations of Exploitation

The caste system and wartime plunder inextricably linked India’s history of human trafficking to ancient times. Our ancient literature frequently refers to Das Pratha or the tradition of slavery. War captives and those burdened by debt frequently faced slavery or servitude during the Mauryan and Gupta eras (approximately 322 BCE–550 CE). India wasn’t the only place where these practices existed. Even in Hammurabi’s Code, one of history’s earliest legal systems, kidnapping was a serious crime, punishable by death, reflecting its deep-seated presence in society.

The caste system in India intensified the exploitative practices. Individuals born into lower castes faced lives of inherited and inescapable servitude. The vulnerability of the marginalised, because of systemic inequality, created ideal conditions for trafficking to flourish. The boundaries separating slavery, servitude, and trafficking were frequently indistinct, leading to the normalisation of exploitative practices.

The similarities to other ancient civilisations are remarkable; for instance, in Rome, almost 40% of the population was enslaved. A well-organised system of slave trading existed in the Roman Empire. The captured individuals from conquered territories were sold across its vast expanse. What one finds both strange and remarkable is that these slaves worked not only as labourers but also as teachers, doctors, and entertainers. 

Medieval Shifts: The Globalisation of Trafficking

India’s trafficking landscape underwent significant transformation during the medieval period, especially after the arrival of Muslim invaders between the 10th and 18th centuries. Extensive trafficking of Hindu captives—mostly women and children—followed these conquests. They were sold in the slave markets across Persia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. However, Mughal emperors held differing views on slavery. Akbar attempted to curtail it, whereas Aurangzeb increased its prevalence. This era also marked the beginning of the devshirme system in the Ottoman Empire. Under this system, Christian boys from the Balkans were kidnapped and forcibly converted to Islam. They were trained as soldiers and administrators. The shared characteristics of these systems underscore the international reach of trafficking, demonstrating its vast, continent-spanning networks.

Meanwhile, across Europe, Vikings were creating a powerful presence in the global slave-trade market. These notorious raiders didn’t just plunder gold and silver; they also captured people from coastal communities and sold them in markets as far away as modern-day Istanbul and Baghdad. The Arab slave trade was equally widespread, and it operated for over a thousand years. It created vast networks that covered East Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe. Unlike later forms of trafficking, the Arab slave trade wasn’t racially motivated. Any vulnerable person could become a victim, irrespective of their ethnicity. This globalised trafficking network laid the groundwork for the even more devastating transatlantic slave trade that would follow. European traders kidnapped young Africans and sold them to Western countries, especially the newly colonised Americas. More about that later.

Colonial Exploitation: The Indentured Labour System

The advent of European influence in India significantly altered the course of trafficking. Between the 16th and 18th centuries, the Portuguese transformed Goa into a major hub for the slave trade. They supplied the enslaved Indians to markets in Europe, the Arab world, and Southeast Asia. The Dutch East India Company (VOC) forcibly relocated thousands of Indians from Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala to its colonies in Indonesia and South Africa. However, the British perfected the exploitative practices. They replaced slavery with indentured servitude, which was another term for legalised slavery, which adversely affected millions of people in India.

During the British Raj, recruiters, known as Arkatias in the present Hindi belt of India and Kangni in southeast Asia, travelled through impoverished Indian villages, spinning tales of prosperity abroad. They promised high salaries and comfortable living in places such as Mauritius, Fiji, Trinidad, Guyana, South Africa, and Burma. What actually happened was very different. Brutal conditions, such as physical and sexual abuse and extreme overwork, were commonplace for the workers. Numerous individuals died prematurely, failing to fulfil their contractual obligations. Although it was abolished in 1917, the system’s impact continues to be felt even today. People of Indian descent in former colonies still experience discrimination, a lasting consequence of colonialism.

Exploitation wasn’t limited to Britain; other nations participated as well. The enslavement and transportation of 12 to 15 million Africans across the Atlantic to the Americas constitutes one of history’s most horrifying crimes against humanity. The sufferings of African slaves have been poignantly described in Alex Haley’s historical novel “Roots: The Saga of an American Family”  published in 1976. The book traces Haley’s own ancestry back to Kunta Kinte, a Mandinka warrior from The Gambia. Kunta Kinte was captured in the late 18th century and sold into slavery in America. The novel follows his descendants over multiple generations, portraying their struggles under slavery, their fight for freedom, and their eventual survival and resilience.

Modern nations were built on the foundation of the transatlantic slave trade, a vast enterprise that irrevocably transformed societies across the Atlantic through the enslavement of millions. The similarities between the transatlantic slave trade and indentured servitude are striking; both systems relied on deception, coercion, and the exploitation of vulnerable groups.

Independence and New Challenges

India’s independence in 1947 marked a shift in the methods of human trafficking but did not eliminate the practice itself. Human traffickers quickly took advantage of the enormous refugee crisis caused by India’s partition. The vulnerability of women and children increased dramatically. Many were forced into prostitution or bonded servitude. The same pattern emerged again during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, which resulted in further displacement and increased vulnerability to trafficking.

The oil boom in the Gulf states marked another significant change in the 1970s. Job seekers from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh comprised a significant portion of the thousands of Indians seeking work abroad. They became victims of illegal agents, the dalals or dallas. Countless workers, especially in construction and domestic service, suffered exploitation such as stolen wages, confiscated passports, and forced servitude. This contemporary form of exploitation reflects the conditions faced by indentured servants a century earlier, underscoring the unchanging circumstances for those pursuing improved lives.

Modern Trafficking: A Globalised Crime

Today’s trafficking networks operate on a global scale. India has become a source as well as a transit centre for the traffickers. The number of people immigrating illegally to Western countries has dramatically increased. Many Indians resort to dangerous journeys arranged by human smugglers, either through Mexico to the US or via the Balkans to Europe. The perilous journeys often result in death or exploitation through forced labour and sex trafficking.

There’s a striking resemblance between historical and modern human trafficking. Like the Arkatis who once lured victims with false promises of plantation work, modern traffickers employ similar tactics using fake visas and fraudulent job offers. The same desperation that pushed Indians toward indentured labour contracts in the 1800s compels people to undertake risky illegal migration today. The influx of trafficked persons poses a significant challenge for India, particularly along its borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar. Rohingya refugees are particularly vulnerable. They often fall victim to exploitation in forms such as prostitution, forced labour, and the criminal trade of human organs.

Breaking the Cycle: Lessons from History

It is important to understand the history of trafficking to address this evil practice. Just as the abolition of indentured servitude necessitated reform, our current problems also require stronger border controls, increased public awareness, stricter regulation of recruitment agencies, and international collaboration among law enforcement agencies. Similar to the eventual demise of indentured slavery, concerted action and policy change can overcome modern human trafficking. Along with law enforcement, we must also address the underlying issues that make people vulnerable, such as poverty, lack of education, and limited economic options.

The UN Convention on Transnational Organised Crime (2000) has established the first internationally agreed-upon definition of human trafficking. It has also set up a comprehensive framework for the prevention, prosecution, and protection of victims. History, however, demonstrates traffickers’ ability to adapt to technological and global advancements. A serious threat has emerged in the form of cyber-trafficking, where traffickers utilise online platforms to exploit victims. Areas of conflict in West Asia are becoming centres for human trafficking.

Conclusion: A Legacy We Must Dismantle

Human trafficking isn’t merely exploitation; it’s a testament to human resilience and the enduring fight for dignity. Throughout history, from ancient Mesopotamia to modern India, a persistent, dark thread has adapted to changing circumstances. Egypt’s pyramids and the British Empire’s plantations serve as stark reminders of past exploitation, yet also testify to the enduring strength of those who resisted oppression.

Today’s challenge involves dismantling this inherited system. This problem needs a comprehensive solution in the form of robust legal frameworks, international partnerships, and focused efforts to address the root causes of vulnerability. We can only sever this long-standing, dark thread in human history through a sustained, collaborative effort. The battle against human trafficking transcends legal and political boundaries; it is a fundamental moral obligation, a test of our compassion, and a challenge requiring our unwavering resolve.

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human trafficking, Indian immigrants deportation, slavery history, indentured labor, modern trafficking networks, caste system exploitation, colonial exploitation, illegal migration, trafficking prevention, human smuggling, UPSC, IAS, IPS, CDS, CBSE, USA, British Raj, Gambia, Ottoman Empire, Roman Empire, Dutch, Portugal, Goa, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Muslims, Hindus, Fiji, Guyana, Myanmar, Trinidad

Vulgar Outrage on Outrageous Vulgarity

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Ladies, gentlemen, and perpetually offended netizens welcome to the grand circus of India’s most beloved pastime: Selective Outrage! Today’s episode features our self-appointed moral guardians making the earth-shattering discovery that the internet—yes, the same internet that brought us cat videos, conspiracy theories, and unsolicited life advice from strangers—contains inappropriate content.

In a revelation that has rocked the very foundations of our society, our esteemed social media influencers and cultural custodians have stumbled upon what the rest of humanity has known since the dawn of dial-up: some corners of the internet are vulgar. Who could have possibly imagined?

Picture this: a comedian cracks a joke about parents, and suddenly, the nation’s moral compass spins like a ceiling fan with the energy of a hyperactive teenager. FIRs fly faster than Twitter trends, and everyone from your neighbourhood chai-wala to the blue-tick brigade transforms into an overnight expert on family values. It’s as if vulgarity was invented yesterday, specifically to offend our delicate sensibilities.

But wait—where were these guardians of public morality when similar content was flooding our screens for the past decade? Ah, but you see, those weren’t the “right” targets. It’s like discovering alcohol is bad for you, but only after catching your arch-nemesis with a beer. The rest of the bars in town? Just serving apple juice, obviously.

The Moral Evolution of a Nation

Our moral evolution as a society is a fascinating spectacle. Much like how one progresses from beer to bourbon to becoming a regular at Alcoholics Anonymous meetings, our entertainment industry has its own graduation ceremony. It starts innocently enough—a little double-meaning stuff here, a suggestive eyebrow-raiser there. But soon, the audience develops an immunity to these mild doses of naughtiness. They demand stronger stuff, and before you know it, we’re mainlining pure, uncut profanity straight into our cultural bloodstream.

How fascinating it is to witness the profound artistic evolution of stand-up comedy! Isn’t it just absolutely brilliant how our brave comedic warriors progress from harmless poultry-related observations (because clearly, questioning a chicken’s road-crossing motivation is the height of intellectual discourse) to eventually reaching the pinnacle of their craft – shouting about a person’s questionable life choices? The audience, naturally, grows more enlightened with each escalating stage, graduating from polite little titters to full-blown hysteria once the family skeletons start tumbling out of the closet. And of course, the ultimate achievement in comedy is apparently reaching that magical moment when you can scandalise an entire family tree and somehow receive a standing ovation for it. What a truly sophisticated art form we’ve created here!

And suddenly, we find ourselves in a world where crossing lines isn’t just encouraged—it’s expected. It’s as if an invisible committee is handing out comedy licenses with the condition that each joke must be more outrageous than the last. Want to stay relevant? Better start mining the depths of depravity for your next viral hit!

The Dance of Hypocrisy

But here’s where our story takes its most delicious turn. Enter our latest protagonist, caught in the crosshairs of public outrage for asking an admittedly inappropriate question. The reaction? Multiple FIRs, because nothing says “we’re serious about moral policing” like overwhelming our already burdened legal system with complaints about a tasteless joke.

The real comedy, however, lies in the reaction of our social media intelligentsia. These are the same people who probably laughed at similar content last week, but now they’re writing lengthy threads about the decay of Indian values. It’s like watching a group of sugar-high children suddenly pretend they’re concerned about dental hygiene.

The hypocrisy reaches its peak when you realise that many of these moral crusaders have their own skeletons dancing in their digital closets. They’re like reformed alcoholics who still have an emergency flask hidden in their sock drawer, just in case their principles need a day off.

Meanwhile, our entertainment industry continues its merry dance on the graves of good taste. Movies push boundaries, TV shows compete for shock value, and political discourse makes stand-up comedy look like a kindergarten rhyme session. But that’s all fine because it’s “mainstream” vulgarity—the acceptable kind, you see.

The Apology Circus

The cherry on top of this pie of paradox? The apology circus that inevitably follows. Watch as our comedian performs the traditional dance of contrition: “I apologise for my lapse in judgment,” they say, while their social media metrics soar higher than their moral standards ever did. It’s a masterclass in crisis management—apologise today, trend tomorrow, repeat next month.

But let’s not pretend this phenomenon is new. Remember when the Censor Board was on a mission to protect our fragile minds from Western corruption? The same Censor Board that once banned a kissing scene because it was “against Indian culture” but had no problem with movies featuring lead characters chopping off limbs in high-definition slow motion? Yes, that Censor Board. If selective outrage had a Hall of Fame, they’d have a golden plaque right at the entrance.

The Morality Buffet

And let’s talk about Bollywood, the industry that treats morality like a buffet, picking and choosing as per convenience. If a mainstream movie features questionable humour or objectification, it’s “art reflecting society.” But if a stand-up comic makes a crass joke? How dare they pollute our cultural purity!

Meanwhile, our social media warriors—those fearless defenders of Indian values—continue their sacred mission. Their weapon of choice? Hashtag activism. #BanThis #CancelThat #ArrestSoAndSo. Because, as we all know, real change happens when enough people type in all caps and flood the mentions of government officials. Ah, the power of the digital mob! Gandhi may have marched for miles, but these brave warriors rage from the comfort of their ergonomic chairs.

The Political Opportunists

Of course, selective outrage wouldn’t be complete without the ever-reliable political opportunists. Politicians, who usually remain silent on actual governance issues, suddenly develop a keen interest in stand-up comedy. “This joke is an attack on our culture!” they thunder, as if they’ve just uncovered a grand conspiracy. Meanwhile, corruption, inflation, unemployment? Mere footnotes in the great war against tasteless humour.

And let’s not forget the Great Indian Hypocrisy Loop: outrage generates more outrage, which in turn fuels even more content consumption. The very people who cry foul about objectionable material are often the first ones to watch it, dissect it, and amplify it. Because let’s be honest, nothing goes viral faster than controversy. If you’re not offending someone, are you even relevant?

The Grand Comedy of Errors

Perhaps the most baffling part of this entire sham is the absolute conviction with which everyone plays their part. The comedians pretend to be shocked when their jokes cause a stir. The outraged public pretends they had no idea this kind of content existed. The media pretend to analyse the situation while secretly praying for more drama. And the politicians pretend to be cultural saviours while gleefully riding the outrage wave for votes.

So here we are, stuck in an endless loop of manufactured outrage and selective morality. We’re like goldfish in a bowl of hypocrisy, constantly surprised by our own reflection. Every few months, we’ll rediscover that the internet contains inappropriate content, act shocked about it, file some FIRs, and then go back to scrolling through equally questionable content on our phones.

Perhaps the real joke isn’t the vulgar content or the outrage it generates. The real joke is our collective pretence that we’re actually surprised by any of this. We’re all actors in a grand comedy of errors, playing our parts with such conviction that we’ve forgotten it’s all just theatre.

The Final Act

As for our moral guardians, they’ll continue their vigilant watch, ready to pounce on the next controversy—but only after it’s properly trending, of course. Because in the end, it’s not about the principle, it’s about the timing. And timing, as any comedian will tell you, is everything.

So here’s to the next outbreak of selective outrage, coming soon to the social media platforms. Same time, same place, different target. Don’t forget to bring your torches and stones—and maybe a mirror, if you’re feeling particularly brave.

After all, the only thing more entertaining than the outrage is the reflection staring back at us.

Budget 2025-26: A Journey from “Animal Spirits” to the “Spirit of Nyaya”

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget for 2025-26 identifies four engines of development, viz. Agriculture, MSME, Investment, and Exports. A few days later, the RBI announced a 0.25% cut in the repo rate, which is the rate at which RBI lends to the banks. The repo rate cut aims to reconcile economic growth while pegging inflation at 4.2% for FY 2025-26, in check.

The revised income tax limits and relief, along with the injection of one trillion rupees, should allow the economy to maintain its current GDP growth rate. Unlike the “animal spirits” Dr Manmohan Singh unleashed, Ms Sitharaman’s budget focuses on the “spirit of nyaya”. Nyaya literally means justice, equity, or fairness.

A key advantage of this tax reform is higher disposable income. Lower taxes will give middle-class families more financial freedom to save, invest, or cover essential expenses. Increased liquidity can lead to sustained financial stability and stimulate wealth creation via higher investments in assets such as mutual funds, fixed-income securities, or real estate. The government also expects greater household consumption, which would boost business, leading to increased production and investment. Consequently, more jobs would be generated.

The RBI lowered its repo rate to 6.25%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. This decision should lower borrowing costs, benefiting individuals and businesses. Lower monthly payments on home and personal loans would ease their financial burdens. Reduced loan repayments may free up consumer spending, resulting in higher demand for goods and services. This can boost economic activity and create a more dynamic marketplace. Better market sentiment and increased liquidity from the rate cut should facilitate corporate borrowing, aiding their expansion plans. Spending and investment would increase, thus accelerating economic growth.

The Role of Agriculture, MSMEs, and Education in India’s Economy

Although the finance minister has identified four engines of growth, we shall examine three critical sectors: Agriculture, MSMEs, and Education. Their distinct but connected roles shape the nation’s economic landscape. Agriculture provides industries with raw materials; MSMEs generate jobs and foster innovation; education develops a skilled workforce, boosting productivity.

Agriculture: Pulses

India’s economy heavily relies on agriculture, which employs about half its workforce. It improves food security, thus lessening poverty and hunger. Agriculture’s contribution to the GDP is about 18%. To maintain agricultural progress, there is a need to focus on improving productivity, and market access, and make the sector immune to climate change threats. Here, let us focus on two important crops – pulses and cotton.

India produces approximately 25% of the world’s pulses but accounts for 27% of global consumption. So it has to import heavily. During 2023-24, India saw a near doubling of pulse imports, increasing from 2.45 million metric tons to 4.5 million. This underscores the ongoing disparity between food production and consumption in India, and its reliance on imports to ensure food security.

There have been notable ups and downs in India’s pulse production. 2021-22 output was 23.02 million metric tons, which rose to 27.5 million metric tons by 2022-23. But, estimates for 2023-24 show a drop to 23.4 million metric tons. Erratic weather, such as unusual rainfall and temperature swings, has caused this volatility. The government plans to focus on developing and distributing high-yield, pest-resistant seeds that thrive in various climates. Masoor, Urad, and Tur pulses will receive special attention. It’s also suggested that farmers receive better prices thanks to improved post-harvest storage.

Cotton

India contributes about 23% of the world’s cotton supply. But lately, cotton production and acreage have fallen. Production fell from 35 million bales in FY21 to 32 million bales in FY24. The reasons for this decline include rising costs of production, unpredictable market returns, and heightened vulnerability to pests and diseases. This has burdened the cotton farmers and the textile industry.

Improving both the quality and quantity of cotton is essential for the livelihoods of millions of cotton farmers and the future of the textile industry. Moreover, India needs to boost cotton production sustainably to stay competitive internationally. Targeted interventions and strategic policy measures are required to address these concerns.

The government has initiated a five-year National Mission for Cotton Productivity to address these challenges. It intends to give farmers greater support for raising productivity and improving sustainability. So, the focus is on producing high-quality, extra-long staple (ELS) cotton, which would fetch premium market prices. There are provisions for technological aid, like high-yield and climate-resilient hybrid seeds, to boost farmers’ crop yields. The mission should revitalize India’s traditional textile industry and help cotton farmers improve their yields.

Makhana

Makhana is high in protein, fibre, vitamins, and essential minerals. Thus it’s a popular health food. It is primarily grown in India. Bihar accounts for over 80% of the country’s production. Makhana farming boosts the livelihoods of 5 lakh farmers in Bihar. Given its rising demand in domestic and international markets, efforts are being made to enhance its cultivation, processing, and export potential. To strengthen makhana farming and processing, the government has established a Makhana Board in Bihar, which will focus on improving production, value addition, and marketing. This board will also provide training to farmers and facilitate their organization into Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs).

To increase productivity, there’s a push to use high-yielding strains such as Swarna Vaidehi and Sabour Makhana-1. Furthermore, upgraded processing infrastructure aims to minimize waste and improve product quality. Government efforts to boost exports include developing cargo infrastructure, trade partnerships, and branding. Moreover, improved farming techniques and pest management are being pursued through increased collaboration with agricultural universities and institutions.

It remains to be seen how far the Union Budget’s intentions translate to actual results on the ground.

MSMEs

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises or MSMEs employ over 110 million people. Approximately 30% of GDP and 45% of manufacturing output come from these enterprises. MSMEs contribute to industrial diversification by driving innovation, entrepreneurship, and competition, besides economic growth. But, presently, MSMEs struggle with limited funding, old technology, and market restrictions, hindering their global competitiveness. The Union Budget aims to boost this sector through expansion, improved finances, and technological upgrades. The investment and turnover limits for MSME classification have been increased by 2.5 times and 2 times, respectively.

Under the Credit Guarantee Scheme, the government raised the credit guarantee cover for micro and small enterprises from ₹5 crores to ₹10 crores. This should lock an additional ₹1.5 lakh crore in credit over the next five years. Also, now startups enjoy enhanced guarantee cover, which has doubled from ₹10 crore to ₹20 crore, with a reduced fee of 1% for loans in 27 priority sectors. The National Manufacturing Mission intends to improve the ease and cost of doing business, develop a skilled workforce, and promote the production of high-quality, technologically advanced products.

The Focus Product Scheme or FPS is expected to enable the footwear and leather industry to generate 22 lakh jobs, achieve a turnover of ₹4 lakh crore, and drive exports worth over ₹1.1 lakh crore. India aims to become a top toy producer through cluster development, skill enhancement, and ecosystem strengthening. Similarly, the food processing industry will benefit from the establishment of the National Institute of Food Technology in Bihar, which aims to boost farmer incomes while generating new employment and entrepreneurship opportunities.

Education

Human capital development hinges on strong education, empowering individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for economic advancement. Industrial and economic growth is driven by higher education and research, which fuel technological advancements and innovation. Besides, education advances social mobility, decreases inequality, and contributes to sustainable development. 

Private institutions in India largely handle early childhood education, while government programs such as the ICDS or Integrated Child Development Scheme’s Anganwadi centres play a supporting role. These centres offer health, nutrition, and early learning programs for children from birth to age six. Government schools provide free, compulsory primary education as per the Right to Education Act. The National Education Policy was supposed to solve perennial issues through foundational literacy and numeracy, a reduced curriculum, and experiential learning. It also introduced multidisciplinary education in grades 6-12 in schools and eliminated long-standing divisions among arts, sciences, and vocational fields. However, inadequate infrastructure, teacher shortages, and poor learning outcomes have not allowed the benefits to fructify. Bridging gaps in access to better schools and colleges, improving infrastructure quality, and aligning education with industry demands is essential for building a skilled and job-ready workforce.

The NEP’s efforts to develop skilled workers, boost research and innovation, and improve job prospects have yet to show results. The workforce still faces significant skills challenges. The Skill India Programme has fallen short of its ambitious goals, training far fewer people than planned. Poor quality and irrelevant training programs result in low employment rates for graduates. Poor infrastructure and funding limit skill development program success, while employer reluctance to hire skilled workers arises from training costs and doubts about their preparedness. To overcome these shortcomings, collaboration between the government, businesses, and schools is crucial to create effective, relevant, and economically aligned skills training programs.

Conclusion

To conclude, targeted reforms, such as improving agricultural resilience, MSME financing, and aligning education with industry needs, will strengthen these sectors and ensure sustainable economic growth and development. The Union Budget 2025-26 marks a decisive shift from merely stimulating economic expansion to fostering equitable, sustainable, and inclusive growth. By giving priority to the economy’s three foundational pillars, which are agriculture, MSMEs, and education, the budget seeks to create a self-reliant and globally competitive India. While measures such as increased credit access, targeted sectoral interventions, and reforms in higher education signal intent, their success hinges on robust implementation and sustained policy support. Addressing structural inefficiencies, bridging skill gaps, and ensuring fair market access for farmers and small businesses will be crucial in translating these initiatives into tangible progress. Effective execution could transform India’s economy, fostering a balanced and just framework.

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RBIRepoRateCut, IndianAgricultureReforms, MSMEIndia, NationalEducationPolicy, SpiritOfNyaya, PulseProduction, CottonFarmingIndia, MakhanaCultivation, SkillIndia, Economy, Finance, Education, NEP, GovernmentPolicy, RuralDevelopment, IndustrialGrowth, SkillDevelopment, FoodSecurity, Aanganwadi, Nutrition, ICDS, UPSC, CBSE, IAS, IPS, IFS, CDS, NDA

Trump 2.0: The Mad Bull in China Shop is Out to Shatter Order: Global and Domestic.

 

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Does Trump’s second term resembles a bull in a china shop? His second tenure has seen a series of rapid executive actions and contentious decisions – both at home and abroad. His team had done their homework in advance. Without delay, he issued executive orders that froze federal spending, fired independent inspectors general, and issued many pardons. His actions have triggered considerable disapproval and bewilderment, primarily from Democrats. Trump is hardly facing a pushback from the Republican-dominated Congress. He is apparently quite enthusiastic about playing the role of The Great Disrupter with great enthusiasm.

In his second term, Trump is redefining the traditional political spectrum. His populist message, which combines nationalism and economic intervention, has reverberated globally. His government’s focus on powerful nations and leaders may signal a significant change in global politics. His policies may revolutionize America’s domestic conservatism by emphasising cultural battles and anti-globalist beliefs.

Domestic Policies

Trump’s actions within the US have created a sharp divide in the public opinion. He reinstated the federal death penalty, overturning his predecessor’s halt on capital punishment. This has renewed ethics-related discussions on criminal justice. He has also pardoned around 1,500 people linked to the January 6th Capitol riots. Political opponents are furious, accusing him of undermining the foundations of democracy.

Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants is controversial. This is already facing legal challenges. A federal judge halted the order calling Trump’s action unconstitutional. Legal analysts predict a lengthy court fight on this issue, which may go all the way to the Supreme Court.

Trump has rescinded Biden-era policies on immigration, climate, and racial equity. He is continuing with his first term’s declaration of national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border. The goal is faster construction of the border wall and more stringent enforcement of anti-illegal immigration laws. He stopped accepting refugees, citing national security, and labelled some drug cartels as terrorists. The administration’s orders for firing FBI agents are already being resisted from within the agency. In California, farm workers are failing to show up for work.

Foreign Policy

Donald Trump’s seismic political comeback threatens to rewrite the global rulebook. He is on track to overturn decades of conventions governing diplomacy, economics, and geopolitics. He prefers deal-making diplomacy, which is already showing adverse effects on global cooperation. His actions might break up the current power system, speeding up a shift to a more fragmented world order. His ambitions of keeping the United States as the sole superpower may backfire. His focus on “America First” and bilateral agreements may undermine global organizations like the UN and WTO. A multipolar world is inevitable as NATO and G7 weaken. This will open up the field for China, Russia, and India to become strong power centres in their own right.

Trump has once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, claiming the latter as harmful to the U.S. economy. The Biden administration had rejoined the PCA earlier. This funny revolving door scenario is captivating global attention. The decline in his support for global climate action reflects a shift toward national economic priorities. The decision is bound to generate a backlash from those who favour collaboration in fighting climate change.

USA-Russia-Ukraine Relations

Trump is likely to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy toward Russia, which could heighten strategic friction. Sanctions by his administration may escalate geopolitical conflicts, potentially leading to retaliatory economic and military measures from Moscow. Already, Europe is getting restless over reduced access to natural gas from Russia, further straining energy security and increasing costs for consumers. These actions are also harming Russia’s financial system, with the ruble facing continued pressure and economic stagnation looming. This approach could worsen US-Russia relations, potentially fuelling a new Cold Warlike standoff.

Trump is likely to favour short-term U.S. benefits over steadfast ideology, prioritizing transactional diplomacy. His administration might offer conditional support to Ukraine, which could prove unreliable in guaranteeing its sovereignty. He has previously criticized the scale of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and may insist on Europe taking greater responsibility. Linking aid to political or economic demands could weaken long-term support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, emboldening Putin. This erratic policy undermines Western alliances and the anti-Russia strategy, creating divisions within NATO. Furthermore, a weakened U.S. stance may encourage Russia to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, worsening regional instability and increasing global security risks.

USA-China-Taiwan-Southeast Asia Relations

The Trump administration might adopt assertive trade strategies. His first term prioritized tariffs on Chinese goods to counter perceived unfair trade practices. Higher tariffs on technology and manufacturing are a possibility under the Trump administration. Trump may offer Taiwan material backing, presenting it as a bulwark against Chinese expansion. This, even though Trump has cooled down anti-China rhetoric and has made certain reconciliatory gestures. China may not take Trump’s gestures seriously, given his pre-election rhetoric and the USA’s consistent efforts to contain China’s expanding global footprint from Panama to Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

There is a certain inevitability regarding a confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region between the present superpower and the wannabe. This has the potential to disrupt Southeast Asia’s economy and politics. Strong actions from the U.S. against China may lead to the breakdown of current supply chains. Southeast Asian nations might have to choose alliances, disrupting ASEAN’s economic objectives. It would be a global disaster if Taiwan became another Ukraine.

In recent developments, Trump has threatened higher tariffs on imports from BRICS nations, including India, which could further strain global trade relations. Additionally, the U.S. is set to impose new tariffs on China, which is its major trading partner. This aggressive stance may lead to increased economic tensions and further complicate international trade dynamics. The ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia continues to shape the region’s strategic landscape, with both powers vying for influence. As the situation evolves, the potential for economic and political disruptions remains high, making it crucial for Southeast Asian nations to navigate these challenges carefully.

Transatlantic Relations

New challenges, particularly those concerning NATO and overall security, may affect transatlantic relations. Trump’s pressure on Europe to increase military spending could harm NATO’s collective defence. NATO’s increased military spending highlights growing doubts about US alliance commitment, stemming from Trump’s transactional foreign policy. This could encourage European nations to bolster their strategic independence through initiatives like PESCO and the European Defence Fund, reshaping the power dynamics within the alliance. PESCO stands for Permanent Structured Cooperation, a policy framework for defence and security cooperation among EU member states.

Economic and climate concerns could threaten the strength of transatlantic bonds. The possibility of trade conflicts may arise again, involving digital services taxes, car tariffs, and farming regulations. The U.S. and Europe’s differing environmental ambitions were evident when Trump exited the Paris Agreement. Trump’s consistent dismissal of climate diplomacy could impede collaborative efforts to tackle global issues, such as energy transitions and technological advancements.

Trump’s comments about purchasing Greenland and annexing Canada have created tensions. Denmark’s Prime Minister stated that Greenland is off the market and underlined that its sovereignty is absolute. While Nordic countries are contemplating a joint front against Trump’s hegemonic tendencies, France is preparing to send troops to defend Greenland.

North American neighbour Canada has rejected Trump’s annexation remarks as disruptive. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has affirmed that Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state is not a possibility. Trump’s emphasis on renegotiating trade deals and safeguarding American industries might rekindle tensions with Canada, especially concerning dairy tariffs and energy exports. In fact, Canada which supplies 60% of the USA’s crude oil needs is contemplating shifting to other markets where it hopes to get more lucrative deals. Is a trade war on the cards? A possibility, since Mexico too is opposing Trump’s domineering policies.

USA-Latin America Relations

Trump is implementing stricter immigration measures, escalating tensions across the Americas. Increasing border security by adding more barriers and involving the military would be a key part of U.S. immigration policy. These policies, combined with harsh deportation tactics and stricter asylum rules, may worsen socio-economic problems in Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, which rely on remittances. The resurfacing of Trump’s threats to use tariffs against Mexico might strain their relationship. Unrest might escalate in the region, fuelling hostility and triggering diplomatic tensions.

Panama has expressed defiance against Trump’s aggressive policies. Panama’s rejection of Trump’s threats to take control of the canal cites its ownership, not a US gift. Panama has filed a formal complaint with the United Nations about Trump’s threats. It has cited the UN Charter’s rule against using force or threats to undermine a state’s independence or territorial integrity.

Trump’s strong opposition to leftist administrations and limiting immigration might escalate tensions with nations such as Bolivia and Nicaragua. His approach to governance and democracy may overlook the long-standing U.S. backing of democratic principles and human rights. By supporting leaders who benefit the U.S., irrespective of their democratic credentials, the government could strengthen regional dictators. This strategy has the potential to harm democratic movements and civil society groups in regions like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil, where democracy is not yet stable. Latin American countries could shift their allegiance to China and Russia if the US de-emphasizes human rights, leading to a credibility crisis.

USA-Israel-West Asia Relations

Trump is likely to maintain a strong stance in favour of Israel. This may lead to increased Israeli control of contested zones. This decision would be similar to Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. Stronger U.S.-backed Abraham Accords could further isolate the Palestinians by improving Israel’s relationships with Arab nations. Strengthening defence and technology partnerships with Israel, the administration might enhance joint research efforts in cybersecurity, AI, and advanced military technology.

A harder line on Iran, sustained sanctions, and increased diplomatic isolation may be part of Trump’s Middle East strategy. Since Iran is going all out to increase uranium enrichment, the American attempts to restrain its nuclear program may worsen tensions. And since Iran is a regional power in its own right, it will not brook Trump’s efforts to thwart its geostrategic aspirations.

The U.S. may select a strategy of selective engagement. It may support allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE while neglecting, or even intimidating, unfriendly countries.

USA-India Relations

India faces a challenging situation with Donald Trump’s re-election. The Trump administration’s efforts to counter China’s spreading influence in the Indo-Pacific region serve India’s regional interests. This strategy centres on the Quad alliance comprising India, the U.S., Australia and Japan that may bolster India’s defence and security. However, economic relations present challenges. There will be growing pressure on India to quit BRICS. Trump has called for trade rebalancing, criticizing India’s high tariffs and referring to it as the “king” of tariffs. Trump’s trade push pressures India to buy more US security equipment. Stronger defence ties are possible, but this may also put pressure on India’s domestic industries.

His administration has demanded the repatriation of at least 18,000 undocumented Indian immigrants. And, this is only for starters. One lakh seventy thousand Indians are estimated to be undocumented in the United States. The deportation of these immigrants in the coming months will cause a huge socio-economic problem in India, given the dismal unemployment scenario. Moreover, Trump’s protectionist trade policies, like potential tariffs, might harm India’s exports. India’s trade surplus with the US makes it vulnerable to US protectionism. Trump’s ego problem with Modi and a surprisingly soft stance on China is the worrying signs that demand attention.

Conclusion

The Trump administration has sparked enduring structural transformations. It has introduced a global standard of populist, transactional governance that might endure after his tenure. Beyond a mere change in politics, his second term might lead to a fundamental rethink of international interactions. His reputation rests on his administration’s capacity to dismantle existing systems, reject norms, and redefine the global political landscape. The major risk lies not in specific policy decisions, but in the potential impact of this approach on global dynamics. For instance, Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico has already boomeranged. Counter-tariffs are being contemplated in several countries. Will Trump 2.0 be remembered as a maverick reformer or a mad bull gone berserk? Let us wait and watch.

TrumpSecondTerm, GlobalPolitics, USForeignPolicy, ImmigrationPolicy, BorderWall, US-China, US-Russia, UkraineConflict, NATO, TransatlanticRelations, Taiwan, SoutheastAsia, BRICS, TradeTariffs, Israel-Palestine, IranNuclearProgram, India-US, Deportation, Greenland, Canada, PanamaCanal, LatinAmerica, AbrahamAccords, GlobalOrder, Populism, Diplomacy, InternationalTrade, NationalSecurity, Immigration, ClimateChange, ParisAgreement, EconomicSanctions, MilitaryAid, DefenceSpending, TerritorialDisputes

RUPEE CRASH 2025: Why India's Currency Just Hit SHOCKING All-Time Lows!

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Since 1947, the INR’s journey reflects India’s economic resilience, evolving policies, and the impact of international events. India’s economic shift from an underdeveloped, agricultural economy to a leading, rapidly expanding global economy is mirrored in the rupee’s performance against the US dollar. Let us explore the rupee’s historical phases, focusing on the government policies, RBI actions, and global factors influencing its value.

1947–1966: The Fixed Exchange Rate Era

When India gained independence in 1947, its exchange rate was pegged to the British Pound Sterling under the Bretton Woods system of 1944. The starting exchange rate was 1 USD to 3.30 INR, showcasing the rupee’s stability within the colonial economy. This stability, however, didn’t last long.

Because of Britain’s post-war economic problems, the Pound Sterling was devalued in 1949; India, being heavily reliant on the British economy, quickly adopted the same policy. The Indian rupee underwent a devaluation, resulting in a rate of 4.76 INR per USD. To stay competitive in the export market, India devalued its currency, a move that highlighted its global economic vulnerability.

India, in the 1950s and 60s, implemented import substitution industrialization to decrease foreign reliance and create an independent economy. This strategy, while boosting domestic industries, also caused trade imbalances and reduced foreign exchange reserves. While the rupee stayed linked to the Pound Sterling, the economy was burdened by growing fiscal deficits and slow growth.

The 1966 Devaluation: A Turning Point

India experienced a serious balance of payments crisis around the mid-1960s. Droughts, foreign aid dependency, and wars against China in 1962 and Pakistan in 1965 placed an enormous strain on the economy. Facing pressure from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, India devalued its rupee by 36.5% in 1966, fixing the exchange rate at 7.50 INR per USD.

This controversial devaluation was necessary to tackle the trade deficit and attract foreign aid. It indicated a change in India’s economic policy, prioritizing structural reforms and deeper engagement with the global economy. However, the initial period was tough because of devaluation, which caused inflation and public unrest.

The 1970s: Managed Float and Oil Shocks

Global finance entered a new era when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. Following the global move to floating exchange rates, India implemented a managed float for the rupee, relying on RBI intervention for stability. The Indian Rupee’s value was linked to a group of currencies, mainly the US dollar, British pound, and Japanese yen, starting in 1973. The 1970s saw global oil shocks as well. India’s heavy reliance on oil imports led to a sharp increase in its import bill following the 1973 OPEC embargo by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC in 1973, and the oil price surge in 1979. These shocks caused inflation and a weaker rupee, reaching an exchange rate of 8.39 INR per USD.

India managed float system, despite the challenges, provided some stability, enabling the RBI to mitigate excessive price swings. That decade, however, showed how vulnerable the rupee was to external pressures, thus emphasizing the need for a more diversified economy.

The 1991 Crisis and Economic Liberalization

The year 1991 marked a turning point for India’s economy. It faced a critical balance of payments crisis, worsened by the Gulf War and higher oil costs. Only three weeks’ worth of import funds were left. To prevent a default, the government used its gold reserves to secure IMF loans.

India started wide-ranging economic reforms under Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. The rupee was devalued in two stages: first to 21.20 per USD in July 1991, and then again to 25.80. The year 1993 saw India shift to a market-driven exchange rate, ending its fixed rate regime. Deregulation, privatization, and foreign investment, which were the hallmarks of liberalization reforms, sparked a new era of economic growth. India’s economic globalization caused the rupee to become more susceptible to market fluctuations.

Post-Liberalization Era (1993–2000s)

The IT services boom, outsourcing, and FDI spurred rapid economic growth in India during the 1990s and 2000s. Throughout this time, one dollar traded for approximately 40-50 rupees, with variations stemming from international and national economic factors.

India’s robust economy and investor confidence led to the rupee appreciating to 39 by 2007. However, the global financial crisis of 2008 created fresh challenges. The rupee crashed to 51 by March 2009 because of capital flight. The RBI stabilized the currency by selling dollars and attracting foreign capital.

Again, in 2013, the US Federal Reserve’s announcement to reduce quantitative easing, known as the “taper tantrum,” caused a capital flight from emerging markets. A record low for the Indian rupee was set in August 2013 when one USD was worth 68.80 rupees. To counter the situation, the RBI and the government introduced a range of measures, including raising interest rates, establishing swap windows for foreign currency deposits, and limiting gold imports. While these actions stabilized the situation, the event highlighted the rupee’s vulnerability to global finance.

Rising oil prices, global trade tensions, and the COVID-19 pandemic have pressured the rupee in recent years. A consequence of the 2020 pandemic’s economic instability was a drop in the rupee’s value to 76. The 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war worsened the situation, causing the rupee to fluctuate between 80 and 83 in 2023.

Despite some difficulties, the Indian Rupee enjoyed relative stability in 2023. Against the US dollar, it dropped only 0.8%, from 82.66 to 83.35. This was actually an improvement from 2022’s performance, which had been the rupee’s weakest since 2013. Although global tensions and a robust dollar pressured the currency, inflows of foreign investment and India’s sound economic base bolstered it.

But, the situation dramatically altered in January 2025. The Indian rupee hit a new record low of 86.62. This is a significant decrease of 4.2% compared to its value at the close of 2023. A further decline to 90 or below is expected in the coming days.

A few factors have caused this decline. A stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields globally have reduced the rupee’s appeal to investors. India’s economy is struggling with a widening trade deficit, slower growth, and inflation exceeding US rates. Foreign investors withdrawing from Indian markets has further weakened the rupee. The rupee’s 2023 resilience to global pressures contrasts with 2025’s more serious domestic and international issues, causing a steeper decline.

Key Factors Influencing the Rupee’s Value

Many domestic and global factors influence the Indian Rupee’s value. The range of factors spans government and central bank actions, as well as global and domestic economic trends. Policymakers, investors, and businesses must understand these elements to manage the currency’s volatility and its economic effects.

Government Policies and RBI Interventions

Government policies have historically played a key role in shaping the rupee’s trajectory. For example, the 1991 economic liberalization was a turning point, opening India’s economy to foreign investment and trade. This action stabilized the rupee, thus leading to further economic growth. Reforming India’s indirect tax system improved investor confidence and helped the Indian rupee.

To attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII), the government needs to implement further measures. India’s 49.3 billion dollar FDI during 2022-23 highlighted its successful policies. 

Active intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Reserve Bank of India is crucial for managing the rupee’s value. The central bank employs dollar sales and interest rate adjustments to control excessive market volatility. For instance, the RBI used dollar reserves to stabilize the rupee in 2022, when it had declined sharply. Liquidity management and inflation targeting by the RBI directly impact the Indian rupee’s value. 

Global Economic Environment

International factors affect the rupee’s value. India’s position as the world’s third-largest oil importer makes oil prices a key factor. India’s import bill and rupee were impacted in 2023 by the crude oil’s price volatility, ranging from 70 to 95 dollars per barrel. Once again, the US Federal Reserve’s 2022-23 rate hikes caused a capital flight from emerging markets such as India. All this weakened the rupee.

The rupee’s resilience has been challenged by global financial crises, including the 2008 meltdown and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The global flight to safety during the pandemic caused the Indian Rupee to reach an unprecedented low of 76.91 against the US dollar in April 2020. India’s strong foreign exchange reserves and quick policy actions, though, steadied the currency. But not for long.

Domestic Economic Conditions

Domestic economic indicators—inflation, GDP growth, and current account deficits—directly affect the rupee’s worth. Continued inflation can reduce what the rupee can buy. The current account deficit remains a concern. A higher current account deficit increases the demand for foreign currency, putting pressure on the rupee. 

So, to conclude, the rupee’s value is shaped by a dynamic mix of government policies, RBI interventions, global economic trends, and domestic economic conditions. While challenges like trade deficits and global volatility persist, India’s robust policy framework and resilient economy provide a strong foundation for the rupee’s stability. With further reforms and prudent management, the rupee can navigate future uncertainties. The Rupee’s trajectory mirrors India’s economic development. Its history, from the post-independence fixed exchange rate to today’s market-driven system, shows how domestic policies, RBI actions, and global economics interact. The future trajectory of the rupee will depend on India’s ability to sustain economic growth, manage external vulnerabilities, and adapt to an increasingly complex global financial landscape.

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