Imagine this.
There are over 40 million people in the world who share a language, culture, history, and homeland… but no country.
For over a century they have fought rebellions, survived massacres, and even helped defeat ISIS.
Yet every time history seems ready to give them a state, the great powers of the world politely say: Thank you for your help… now please go back to not existing.
So the question is simple. As the Middle East enters another period of chaos and shifting alliances…
Could the Kurds finally achieve the country they were promised a hundred years ago? Or will they remain the world’s most convenient ally—and most disposable one?
Before we take a closer look, here’s something most people don’t know. The Kurds actually did have their own country once.
In 1946, in the mountains of northwestern Iran, the Kurds briefly created an independent state called the Republic of Mahabad.
It had a president—Qazi Muhammad—its own army, and even Kurdish-language schools. For the first time in modern history, the dream of Kurdistan seemed within reach. And then—less than a year later—it vanished.
The Iranian army moved in. The republic collapsed. And its president, Qazi Muhammad, was publicly executed in the town square.
Just like that, the Kurdish state disappeared. But the story of why Mahabad collapsed reveals something crucial about Kurdish history— and why every Kurdish attempt at independence has faced the same problem ever since.
The Kurds occupy one of the most paradoxical positions in modern geopolitics. They are a nation of roughly 30–45 million people with a shared language family, culture, and historical memory, yet they remain divided across four states—Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Their homeland, often described as Kurdistan, lies in a strategically vital region rich in oil, water resources, and mountainous terrain that has historically provided both refuge and isolation.
Because of this geography and the political fragmentation created after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire—especially through the treaties of Treaty of Sèvres (1920) and Treaty of Lausanne (1923)—the Kurds became a people without a state. Since then, Kurdish movements have oscillated between autonomy, rebellion, and uneasy alliances with global powers.
The current turmoil in West Asia—ranging from tensions involving Israel and Iran to instability in Syria and Iraq—could significantly reshape Kurdish prospects. History suggests that periods of regional upheaval often create both opportunity and danger for stateless peoples. For the Kurds, the coming decade could unfold through several very different scenarios.
Scenario 1: Kurds as Strategic Pawns in Regional Power Games
One of the most likely scenarios is that Kurdish groups once again become instruments in the strategic rivalries of larger powers.
For example, Turkey has long viewed Kurdish political movements—especially those linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—as existential security threats. Ankara considers Kurdish militias in northern Syria to be extensions of this organisation. As a result, Turkey has repeatedly launched cross-border military operations to prevent Kurdish-controlled territories from consolidating along its southern border.
If regional tensions intensify, Turkey could expand its military presence in northern Syria and northern Iraq. Under such a scenario, Kurdish groups might be forced into tactical alliances with external powers such as the United States or Russia for protection. These alliances would likely remain temporary and transactional, echoing previous episodes in Kurdish history where external support evaporated once geopolitical priorities changed.
In this situation, Kurdish forces might win tactical victories—securing towns, oil fields, or limited autonomy—but they would remain dependent on external patrons and vulnerable to sudden diplomatic shifts.
Scenario 2: Kurdish Regions Become Buffer Zones in a Fragmented Middle East
Another possibility is that Kurdish territories evolve into semi-autonomous buffer zones between rival states.
Northern Iraq already provides a model through the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), headquartered in Erbil. This region operates with its own parliament, security forces known as the Peshmerga, and control over certain economic resources. However, its autonomy exists within the framework of the Iraqi state.
In a prolonged period of regional instability, similar arrangements could emerge in other Kurdish areas. In northeastern Syria, the Kurdish-led administration known as Rojava could persist as a semi-recognised autonomous entity. Meanwhile, Kurdish regions in Iran might gain limited cultural or administrative concessions if Tehran seeks to reduce internal unrest during wider geopolitical crises.
Under this scenario, the Kurdish world would resemble a patchwork of quasi-autonomous regions rather than a unified state. Kurds would gain greater local control but remain politically fragmented across national borders.
Scenario 3: A Harsh Backlash and Renewed Suppression
Periods of geopolitical turmoil often provoke strong nationalist reactions from existing states. If regional governments fear that instability might encourage separatism, they may intensify repression.
For example, if tensions between Iran and Israel keep escalating dramatically, Tehran might tighten security across its western provinces, where Kurdish activism is already closely monitored. Similarly, Turkey could intensify its military campaigns against Kurdish militants both domestically and across borders.
Historically, such crackdowns have been devastating. The Kurdish population in Iraq suffered immensely during the Anfal Campaign under Saddam Hussein in the late 1980s, including the chemical attack on Halabja. While such extreme violence may not be repeated on the same scale, the pattern of forced displacement, arrests, and cultural restrictions could intensify if governments perceive Kurdish activism as a threat to national survival.
In this scenario, Kurdish aspirations for independence would retreat in the face of overwhelming state power.
Scenario 4: Kurdish Political Unity and Gradual Confederation
A more optimistic—but still challenging—scenario involves greater political coordination among Kurdish regions.
Historically, Kurdish movements have been divided by ideology, tribal loyalties, and the different political environments in which they operate. Kurdish parties in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran often pursue divergent strategies.
However, prolonged instability across West Asia might push these groups toward greater cooperation. If Kurdish leaders succeed in building a cross-border political framework—perhaps a loose confederation of autonomous regions—they could strengthen their bargaining power with regional governments and international actors.
Such a confederation might initially function as an informal alliance rather than a sovereign state, coordinating economic policies, cultural initiatives, and diplomatic outreach across Kurdish regions.
Scenario 5: The Emergence of an Independent Kurdistan
The most dramatic possibility is the eventual creation of an independent Kurdish state.
For this to happen, several conditions would likely need to converge. First, at least one of the existing states controlling Kurdish territory would need to weaken significantly—either through political fragmentation, regime change, or prolonged conflict. Second, Kurdish regions would need to demonstrate administrative stability, economic viability, and internal unity.
Northern Iraq offers the most plausible foundation for such a development. The KRG already possesses many features of statehood: a parliament, armed forces, international diplomatic offices, and control over oil resources in areas like Kirkuk.
If the Iraqi state were to undergo severe political crisis, Kurdish leaders might revive the independence mandate expressed in the 2017 referendum, in which an overwhelming majority supported statehood. An independent Kurdish state emerging from northern Iraq could then gradually integrate Kurdish regions from neighbouring countries if political circumstances allowed.
Such a state—often envisioned as Greater Kurdistan—would span parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, covering roughly 392,000 square kilometres. It would control significant energy reserves, major water sources of the Tigris–Euphrates basin, and key transit corridors between the Middle East and Central Asia.
However, achieving this outcome would almost certainly require international recognition from major powers—something that has historically been absent.
A Nation at the Mercy of History
The Kurdish story illustrates how geography, great-power politics, and historical accidents can shape the fate of entire peoples. Despite a shared identity rooted in language, culture, and centuries of collective memory—from the era of Saladin to modern resistance movements—the Kurds remain divided by borders drawn a century ago.
The current upheavals across West Asia could either deepen this fragmentation or open unexpected paths toward unity. As history has repeatedly shown, moments of regional crisis can transform the political map of entire continents.
For the Kurds, such moments have often brought both hope and betrayal. Whether the coming decade will finally move them closer to the long-envisioned homeland of Kurdistan—or once again relegate them to the margins of geopolitics—remains one of the most consequential unanswered questions in the politics of West Asia.
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