Narendra Modi is serving his third term as India’s Prime Minister; his current term will end in May 2029, when he will be 78. The lack of a formal retirement age in Indian politics is highlighted by the lengthy careers of former Prime Ministers such as Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, not to mention Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Modi’s own party, the BJP, similarly lacks formal age restrictions for its leadership. Succession talk intensifies as Modi nears eighty. In March, Sanjay Raut claimed the RSS would pick Modi’s successor, possibly from Maharashtra. This happened following his Nagpur visit and meeting with Mohan Bhagwat.
Modi’s charisma, strategic thinking, and broad appeal have made him a leading figure in Indian politics, dramatically altering the national political landscape for the last ten years. Time, however, inevitably raises questions about his succession; speculation is rife regarding his future and who will inherit his leadership of both the BJP and possibly India. There’s no simple answer to the question of succession. Let us examine potential successors to Modi, the broader political context, and various scenarios shaping the path to the 2029 elections.
BJP’s Strong Position
Although the BJP fell short of a majority in the 2024 general elections, it remains the dominant force in Indian politics. The BJP, leading the NDA coalition with allies such as the JD(U) and TDP, enjoys 293 seats, guaranteeing a stable government. The party’s post-2024 electoral victories further highlighted its strength. The BJP ended the Aam Aadmi Party’s 27-year reign in Delhi by winning the February 2025 election. Strong performances in Haryana and Maharashtra’s state elections further solidified the party’s organisational strength and Modi’s continued popularity. These wins solidify the BJP’s hold on power. The BJP’s adaptability, strong RSS ties, and extensive grassroots organisation make it India’s dominant political force, thus making succession an internal matter.
Potential BJP Successors
A few BJP leaders stand out as likely successors, known for their influence, popularity, and administrative achievements. Each of the top contenders to replace Modi—Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, and Nitin Gadkari—offers a different set of advantages and disadvantages.
1. Amit Shah (Age 60)
Why He Could Succeed: Amit Shah, India’s Home Minister, is a key advisor to Modi and a top strategist for the BJP. At 60, he combines extensive experience with a fresh perspective, which could be a significant asset for the party’s future. Since 2014, Shah has been the chief architect of the BJP’s electoral success, masterminding victories in numerous states and strengthening the party’s organisation. His key role in significant decisions, such as the 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status (Article 370), shows his strong agreement with the BJP’s ideology. His strong reputation as a decisive leader, especially in law enforcement, adds to Shah’s credentials.
Challenges: Shah’s strengths are counterbalanced by significant weaknesses. His rigidity on security and Hindutva could jeopardise his alliances within the NDA, as coalition partners prefer a moderate approach to retain regional support. Moreover, Canada’s 2024 accusations regarding Shah’s involvement in Sikh separatist tensions, while unproven, have damaged his global image. Critically, Shah lacks Modi’s exceptional charisma and ability to connect with diverse groups, which could hurt his chances in a national election.
Likelihood: However, Shah’s prospects are strong, especially if Modi willingly steps down and backs him as his successor. Given his proximity to Modi and command of the party’s organisation, he’s a front-runner; but his victory may depend on the BJP’s choice between ideological purity and mass appeal.
2. Yogi Adityanath (Age 52)
Why He Could Succeed: Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, is known for his strong views. He is a powerful figure within the BJP. At 52, he brings both substantial experience and considerable vigour to the position. Yogi’s leadership in Uttar Pradesh since 2017, a state crucial to Indian politics with 80 Lok Sabha seats, has cemented his reputation as a determined Hindutva proponent and a decisive administrator. Despite aggressive policing and numerous development projects, his approval ratings as Modi’s successor have consistently hovered between 19% and 24% across different polls. Yogi’s youth and appeal to the BJP’s core supporters make him a strong contender.
Challenges: Still, Yogi’s polarising nature carries risks. His rigid Hindutva ideology, as shown in policies such as anti-conversion laws and his anti-minority rhetoric, may hinder his ability to build coalitions, a crucial skill in India’s diverse political landscape. Yogi is not known for any development-oriented policies. This hinders his broader appeal beyond North India.
Likelihood: However, Yogi’s chances will improve if he wins Uttar Pradesh in 2027 and expands his national influence. But to match Shah’s organisational power, he has to shed his regional image.
3. Nitin Gadkari (Age 67)
Why He Could Succeed: Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari is a pragmatic, results-oriented leader known for his infrastructure achievements. At 67, he offers a balance of experience and youthful vigour. Gadkari’s ambitious road projects have revolutionised Indian connectivity, garnering bipartisan praise and suggesting his potential as Modi’s successor. His ties to the RSS, coupled with his collaborative style, allow him to unite people beyond the party’s most staunch supporters, which is a key skill in coalition building.
Challenges: However, unlike Shah and Yogi, Gadkari is not a ruthless politician and lacks the crucial skill of mobilising the masses. Working outside Modi’s inner circle puts him at a disadvantage in a succession battle likely to be controlled by loyalists.
Likelihood: So, Gadkari has a moderate chance of success. While a compromise candidate could emerge from factional splits within the BJP, his success is unlikely without Modi’s clear endorsement.
Other Potential Candidates:
There are other candidates like Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who brings decades of experience and a steady hand, but at 78 in 2029, he may be deemed too old to lead. Another candidate, the 66-year-old Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is gaining prominence, but his national influence is still limited.
The RSS Factor
Ideologically and through grassroots support from its widespread volunteers, the RSS is deeply entwined with the BJP. Narendra Modi, along with many other top BJP figures, previously worked for the RSS. Historically, the RSS has influenced the leadership indirectly by cultivating and advancing Hindutva-aligned individuals. Yet, the BJP’s internal workings, including parliamentary board decisions and its elected MPs’ preferences, can sometimes differ from the RSS’s priorities.
If the RSS could influence things, a successor with a strong RSS background, such as Nitin Gadkari, is a likely possibility. Although influential, the RSS doesn’t have absolute power in choosing Modi’s successor. It will face BJP infighting, Modi’s choices, and electoral factors. And we know that Modi is still powerful enough to limit RSS to an advisory role.
Congress and the Opposition: Can They Mount a Challenge?
The Indian National Congress continues to be the BJP’s principal national challenger. A resurgence for Congress is suggested by its doubling of its 2019 seat total, but it’s still far behind the BJP. To gain power, the party needs strong leadership, united allies, and a dramatic shift in how voters feel by 2029.
Rahul Gandhi (Age 54): Since 2019, Rahul Gandhi has made significant efforts to reshape his public persona and revive the Congress Party’s grassroots presence. His ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra aimed to counter the perception of Congress as a disconnected, elite-driven organisation, but its electoral impact remained limited. His leadership has been marked by sporadic bursts of energy followed by periods of inactivity, raising concerns about his long-term political strategy. The Congress party’s continued structural weaknesses—factionalism, weak state units, and a heavy dependence on regional allies—pose a serious challenge to his prime ministerial ambitions. Unless he undergoes a radical transformation in leadership style, strategic acumen, and electoral management, his path to the top remains highly uncertain.
Priyanka Gandhi (Age 53): Often compared to her grandmother Indira Gandhi due to her charisma, Priyanka Gandhi has been a key campaigner for Congress, especially in Uttar Pradesh. However, her late and limited entry into active politics has prevented her from gaining the necessary electoral experience to build a solid power base. Despite her appeal, Congress’s persistent decline in states like UP and her failure to deliver substantial victories raise questions about her potential as a national leader. A larger and more decisive role could allow her to emerge as a stronger leader, but with the 2029 general elections not very far away, time is running short.
Beyond the Gandhi Family: The Congress Party’s over-reliance on dynastic leadership has stifled the rise of alternative power centres. Figures like Shashi Tharoor, known for his intellectual appeal, and Sachin Pilot, with his youthful dynamism, represent potential future leadership. However, the party’s rigid hierarchy and lack of well-defined growth channels hinder their progress. Without a systemic overhaul to nurture fresh leadership, Congress risks further decline.
In the unlikely event of the BJP performing poorly in the 2029 election, a non-BJP prime minister could emerge from a coalition government. Despite their influence, the prospects of regional leaders such as Nitish Kumar (JD(U), Chandrababu Naidu (TDP), Mamata Banerjee (TMC, and Sharad Pawar (NCP) are limited by factors like age, changing political alliances, and limited national popularity. Forming such a coalition would require an immense effort from Congress.
Conclusion
As and when Narendra Modi approaches the end of his third term, the BJP will face a critical leadership transition. Amit Shah emerges as the frontrunner to succeed him, with Yogi Adityanath as a formidable rival. The Congress-led opposition could capitalise on the BJP's missteps, but a major realignment of political alliances is essential for a credible challenge. Over the next five years, India’s political landscape will either see continued BJP dominance or the emergence of a new power dynamic. With the 2029 elections still a bit away, India stands at a crossroads. Modi’s towering legacy leaves the BJP focused on selecting a worthy successor. Despite the BJP’s strong position, Congress and regional players could shift the balance. The post-Modi era, shaped in the coming years, will have profound implications for India’s future leadership and direction.
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