AAP: A credible third alternative, or the declining Indian National Congress's replacement?

It will be sad if AAP turns out to be merely a replacement for INC as BJP’s rival at the national level instead of becoming a credible third alternative. 

Arvind Kejriwal’s letter of 14 December to Rajnath Singh and Sonia Gandhi lists 18 issues, including the Jan Lokpal, on which he has asked the two leaders to unambiguously clarify their respective parties’ stand. He did this in response to their offers of support mixed with challenges and taunts that AAP should now “fulfill the promises made to the people of Delhi.”  Clearly, the AAP leader is no fool, even if he is a newcomer to the political arena. He is not only going to see the gift horse in the mouth, but examine it rather too minutely for the gift donors’ comfort. Both BJP and INC want AAP to form the government in Delhi. The INC has gone to the extent of offering unconditional support to the AAP. It would be naïve to attribute altruistic motive to this gesture. Actually, there is an element of desperation in the attempts of the two national parties to prevent re-elections in Delhi. This desperation stems from their angst over the probability of AAP getting a majority if reelections are held, given the euphoria among common Delhi voters over rediscovery of their power to change regimes after 15 years. And, quite a significant chunk of this populace looks upon AAP as a credible vehicle for such change (this chunk is apparently increasing by the day, thanks to the BJP-Congress duo’s transparent nervousness over the emergence of a clean political alternative to them). Neither of the two national parties wants to see this happen since greater stakes are on the anvil in the fast approaching 2014 general elections. AAP is proving to be a rejuvenating breeze that has energised hope for honesty’s redemption, despite wheeling dealing and other pollutants having turned the country’s political waters murkier. You never know when a breeze might turn into a storm. Before that happens, BJP and Congress want to fortify their respective citadels that have demonstrated their vulnerability to popular disapproval. 

One might well argue that other political parties too, on different occasions, had promised what AAP is offering now. Straws in India’s politico-administrative winds have often remained just that – possibilities that refuse to fructify. Including the JP Movement of the 1970s, there have been all sorts of protests and “reformist movements” against maladministration, corruption etc that have had little effect on the country’s politico-administrative culture. Even attempts to change the system by someone from within the establishment, Rajiv Gandhi for example, have invariably come to grief. Things had reached such a pass that people watched helplessly as political parties – regional as well as national – increasingly started resembling a cartel of exploiters. With increasing fury, the aam aadmi could only wring his hands and watch the evil spread its tentacles. But that seething anger against the rot setting in the system did not die down – something that our politicos had been taking for granted, as epitomized by the popular phrase, “public memory is short.” Instead, like lava swirling through the earth’s innards, the fury sought an outlet. So far, the judiciary’s proactive and frequent interventions to uphold the law in letter and spirit offered the lone safety valve that kept the socio-political temperatures at below the explosion-point. However, mercifully, the Delhi elections provided a more popular and democratic outlet in the form of the AAP’s impressive showing. “Mercifully,” because popular anger has the habit of manifesting itself in unpredictable forms; it could take a violent turn if things had been allowed to drift vis-à-vis rampant corruption and rotten governance. There are instances of frustrated youth taking to arms against an unresponsive system – be it Naxalites in the 1960s-70s or various tribal protests in different states.

Anna Hazare’s focus on corruption by pegging his protest on Jana Lokpal Bill caught the imagination of the middle class, especially the youth. Attempts to discredit it began in right earnest, proving that our political establishment’s dirty tricks department is alive and well. However, the Spartan Anna’s undoubted honesty and his unwavering commitment to the cause proved more than a match to all such shenanigans. The AAP is a child of that movement, which decided to plunge into the muddy waters of Indian politics in order to cleanse them. Its first outing has been impressive – decimating the mighty Indian National Congress in Delhi, and stopping the BJP juggernaut to boot. No wonder the rookies are getting increasingly self-confident and have now set their sights on the forthcoming general elections, to test their mettle at the national level.  

The Indian National Congress should take heed. Instead aiming at retaining power at the centre it should focus on winning enough seats to win the runners-up trophy in the 2014 elections, wherein the BJP is all set to emerge as the largest party thanks to the increasing popularity of Narendra Modi throughout the country, especially small towns and the countryside – the two areas where BJP could never make inroads earlier. Will Rahul Gandhi make bold by getting rid of all politicians with tainted image in his party and bring in fresh faces with impeccable reputations? Will he democratize the INC? This might entail the Dynasty’s end and emergence of a truly democratic regime. There is every chance that young rivals to Rahul will emerge from the grassroots. Will he take this risk? His action may not win the elections in 2014, but can help form a core team for INC’s eventual rejuvenation. The Grand Old Party of India is too important to drown in the sleazy quicksands of Indian politics.

It will be sad if AAP turns out to be merely a replacement for INC as BJP’s rival at the national level instead of becoming a credible third alternative.