When the BSP supremo Mayawati expressed suspicions regarding Modi’s
stupendous victory in Uttar Pradesh, wondering how the BJP could have won in
Muslim majority areas without having a single Muslim candidate in its fold, she
was unwittingly confirming the rise of the New Indian – young, aspirational and
impatient with traditional faultlines. The fact that Modi’s BJP did not back/nominate
a single Muslim candidate and yet won in Muslim majority areas goes to the credit
of the rise of the New Indian that comprises the Muslim youth too. While other
parties were still pigeon-holing voters into traditional vote-bank slots, Modi
recognised the change in the voters’ mood and came up with his ‘sab ka saath,
sab ka vikas’ vision, which is standing him in good stead.
In fact, with landslide victories in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand,
BJP can legitimately claim to have finally won the so-called referendum on PM
Modi’s policies, programs and performance, although the party leadership had
unequivocally refused to look at the five state assembly polls as referendum.
Ever since Narendra Modi’s 2014 General Elections victory, several
explanations were put forward by intrigued news analysts, political pundits and
seasoned journalists. Some ascribed the victory to his rock-star image that
dazzled the youth. Others described him as the darling of the middle classes who
had promised them freedom from corruption, inflation and unemployment. Of
course, there was no dearth of those who cited his unprecedented media blitzkrieg
that overshadowed everything that the opposition parties could muster in terms
of resources and rhetoric. Then there was the original image of Modi being the
Great Hindu Hope, which he is keen to downplay if not shed altogether. All
these factors have propelled him onto a journey of unprecedented and undreamt
of political victories.
Modi’s every subsequent success was ascribed to the momentum gained
in 2014, to divisive politics, to the purported appropriation of Congress icons
like Netaji Bose, Sardar Patel, Shivaji etc., and ‘saffronising’ of the UPA-designed
policies and programs. But, most mentioned and believed argument was that the
Modi Magic was a creation of our media. Everybody believed that it would be
impossible to defeat Modi in elections, until Bihar happened and the mood
changed. Opposition parties heaved a sigh of relief. At last, the Modi
juggernaut had been halted, the saffron balloon burst. Demonetisation was
presented as the beginning of the end of Modi Magic. But that hasn’t happened,
as proved by the poll results of 11 March, 2017.
Admittedly, along with its ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP has
been routed in Punjab. It has also slipped from the seat of power in Goa and has
ended up as runner-up in Manipur (it might yet form governments in the two
states with the help of ‘others’). Yet the question remains: How has the Modi
Magic endured for so long and is apparently becoming stronger? Demonetisation
was supposed to boomerang on BJP’s poll prospects in these elections,
especially in UP. But, the contrary has happened. In UP it has achieved an
unprecedented landslide victory. In Uttarakhand, Harish Rawat seemed to be
going strong, but has been unceremoniously unseated by the voters. Obviously
something has gone terribly wrong for the rival parties. Currently, both the
INC and the Samajwadi Party are under the scanner.
Uttarakhand presents a classic case of various
ills that have come to be associated with the Indian National Congress:
corruption, myopic vision and bad governance. The BJP had been trying every
trick – legitimate or otherwise – to unseat Harish Rawat. It managed to take
advantage of dissensions within the INC. Consequently, on 18 March, 2016, 9
Congress MLAs and 27 BJP MLAs met the state’s governor and claimed that the CM
had lost majority in the Assembly. Irrespective of the result, it showed how
assiduously the BJP was working on breaking into the INC’s turf. Coupled with
rampant corruption and bad governance was the dispirited and divided Congress
cadre that proved to be no match to the aggressive and cohesive BJP’s
onslaught.
Although polarisation had been going on in UP for
several years, it would not have given the BJP much advantage as the state is
riven with mind-boggling divisions based on castes and sub-castes. BJP worked
on those castes that were not empowered enough and had no political party to
back them, the Rajbhars for example. BJP leaders claim that the Triple Talaq
issue has brought young Muslim men and women into their fold. It is clear that
Muslims did not vote as a block and got divided among BSP, SP, and Congress,
with Shias probably voting largely for the BJP. But the deciding factor was the
people’s ire and angst against large scale corruption and goondaism in the
state. And the BJP leadership exploited this factor to their advantage. The
infighting in the Yadav clan did not help matters at all. Akhilesh Yadav’s belated
efforts at expediting various developmental projects did not beguile the
voters. As for the Congress, it has clearly lost touch with the current
political and economic aspirations of the common man. They are still caught in
the 1980s mind-set. They talked of MGNREGA and subsidies, they tried to appeal
to various caste groups and took the moral high ground vis-à-vis BJP’s ‘divisive
politics’, but in vain. But for its landslide victory in Punjab, the INC was
clearly heading for the oblivion.
However, the Indian National Congress would be
mistaken if it looked upon the Punjab victory as a decisive turnaround in its
fortunes. There are simply too many chinks in its armour. The Punjab victory is
a combination of Amarinder Singh’s clean image and the people’s despair at the
rampant corruption and crime perceived to be encouraged, if not actively
patronised, by powerful elements within the SAD-BJP alliance. There was hardly
any investment in the industrial sector. Services and agriculture sectors too
were stagnating. Consequently, unemployment had reached scary levels. Then the
government’s refusal to even acknowledge the widespread drug addiction among
the state’s youth only reinforced the public perception that drug mafias had
protection of powerful politicians.
If the Congress wants to capitalise on the
unexpectedly huge electoral gain in Punjab, it will have to make earnest
efforts at complete revamp right from top to bottom. Internal democracy will
have to be introduced. Leaders will have to earn their place in the party’s
hierarchy. Hard work, leadership qualities, positive image and track record
must begin to matter in a Congress leader’s political profile. This will entail
genuine interactions with common people, understanding their problems and
making honest efforts at resolving them. This will not get them immediate
results because it takes time for the distrust to turn into trust. And Congress
politicians’ credibility has reached rock-bottom.
Coming back to the Modi Magic, there could be
several reasons for its working. But, to my mind, the rise of the New Indian is
proving decisive. He is not interested in traditional politics. He is not
really interested in socialist shibboleths and has developed contempt for
‘secularism’ – which has come to be identified with cynical vote bank politics
that has done immense harm to our social fabric and economic development. Ideologies
leave him cold. He is aspirational and interested in tactile benefits. So, even
as the left and liberal parties, especially the Congress, cry themselves hoarse
over the Hindu Right’s identity politics, the ratcheting up of xenophobic and
communal rhetoric, the New Indian has refused to be swayed away
from what he wants. He refuses to be steadfast in his commitment to specific
ideologies and is willing to vote across ideological and socio-economic fault
lines. This should force political parties to recalibrate their public stances,
something Modi has been quick to do. He has not hesitated from reinventing his
political /ideological priorities if not the entire narrative. So, we have the
face of the hard-core Hindutva BJP party refusing to abolish the populist
welfare measures he had so disdainfully dismissed as wasteful and hotbeds of
corruption. Modi also feels compelled to tone down, if not disown his party’s
Hindutva agenda and reach out to minority communities. And this is what one
finds so striking. A right wing politician has recalibrated his government’s
policies by adopting left-liberal socio-economic policies and programs. He is
now positioning himself as a genuinely secular, mainstream political personage
and succeeding too.
There is a lesson in all this for the BJP and the Sangh Parivar.
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