Our
northern borders have been simmering for quite a while now, occasionally
exploding into violent faceoffs, like the one in the Galwan Valley.
We
all know the history of Chinese expansionism since Mao Zedong ousted Chiang
Kai-shek in 1949. China has turned its aggressive hegemonism into a fine art by
posing as victim of historical wrongs perpetrated by the “imperialist forces”.
It nimbly clambers up the high moral pedestal to claim territories belonging to
other sovereign nations, as it is happening in Southeast Asia, Far East and
Central Asia. The countries that are not in its immediate geographical
periphery like Sri Lanka, Maldives etc are subjugated through a well-planned
debt-trap.
Coming
back to India, one thought the dragon must have learnt its lessons from the
1967 thrashing received from the Indian Army in Nathu La. Obviously that hasn’t
been the case, as the Galwan Valley confrontation and brazen intrusion into the
Depsang Plateau show.
China
does not believe in political or any other morality. It is impossible to pin it
down to its commitments. Pt. Nehru, Rajiv Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee tried
to woo China, only to be taken up the garden path and promptly rebuffed. Now
Modi has learnt to his mortification that hugs and homilies do not count for
much in hard-headed realpolitik. Mrs. Indira Gandhi was the only Indian Prime
Minister who had rightly treated China as a rival and gone ahead with
nuclearizing India to send a strong message to China in May 1974.
The
question remains, how do we tame this dragon on the rampage? First, we need to
cure ourselves of the genetic malaise of sitting on our laurels. After our
triumph in the Bangladesh Liberation war and the exploding of nuclear device in
1974 several lotus eaters wanted the government to disband the armed forces. Our
stupid, short-sighted babu-neta combine plotted to downgrade the soldier’s stature.
This was apparent in the humiliation of Field Marshal Sam Maneckshaw. This, in
combination with corruption, adversely affected our military preparedness and
building of defence infrastructure.
Well
begun, but…
Narendra
Modi began his innings as India’s PM on a bright note when he invited the South
Asian heads of state to his swearing-in ceremony. Great strategic wisdom was
attributed to Modi’s move. But soon the cookie crumbled. Thanks to
irresponsible and counter-productive anti-Muslim rhetoric Pakistan got further
pushed into the waiting Chinese arms. Nawaz Sharif was ousted and the military
ratcheted up terrorist strikes in Jammu and Kashmir.
Today
we have a rather hostile strategic environment. Almost all our small neighbours
look upon China to counterbalance the big brotherly attitude of India. We
cannot count upon even Nepal as a friend. On the other hand, China has cemented
its presence in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan and Maldives. Now
it is targeting Bhutan to complete its strategic stranglehold on India.
Dealing
with the Dragon
No
wonder the dragon is spewing flames all along the LAC. So, how do we send it
back to its caves? Some firm steps ought to be taken on the diplomatic,
economic and strategic fronts.
Diplomatic
Although
India’s equation with Western democracies is far better than ever before, there
is a need for mending fences with our neighbours. We cannot afford to have
hostile neighbours. Our tendency for big brother approach must be replaced with
a reassuring friendship on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Naturally,
economic cooperation will be the most powerful binding factor. Can we provide an
alternative to the Chinese model of economic cooperation to Sri Lanka, Nepal,
Bangladesh and other countries?
We
have a positive image on the world stage, which needs to be leveraged to
solidify the world opinion which is increasingly becoming wary of Chinese intentions.
The COVID 19 pandemic has inflicted a mortal blow to the Chinese credibility at
the global level. Its goodwill is at its nadir. India should campaign to
generate global consensus for taming the dragon’s rampaging ambitions.
Economic
Well,
if power flows through the barrel of gun, we must have the means to acquire and
maintain that gun, its ammunition and attendant infrastructure. This is
possible only through technological excellence and economic progress.
Our
policy makers must be well aware that technological advancement and economic
prosperity go hand in hand. But our investment on science related R&D has
been inadequate. India’s Gross Expenditure on Research & Development is
about 0.7 percent. This is way behind Israel’s 4.6 percent, South Korea’s 4.5
percent, Japan’s 3.2 percent, Germany’s 3 percent, USA’s 2.8 percent and
China’s 2.1 percent. The economic and commercial spinoffs of technological
advancements are there for all to see. Countries like South Korea, Japan,
Taiwan, China and Singapore have prospered through exports of high-tech goods
and services. Their industrial products – both consumer and capital goods – are
now much in demand. France, China, Russia, USA and Israel are among the major
exporters of highly sophisticated military hardware and software.
India
imports a variety of finished products from China. These include engineering
and electronic goods, automobile spare parts, bicycles, toys and leather goods,
apart from raw materials for pharmaceuticals. In the financial year 2019-2020
the import bill was more than 65 billion dollars. On the other hand, our
exports were about 17 billion dollars consisting of cotton yarn and ores etc.
Clearly,
there is a vast scope for import substitution, provided the Indian government
formulates right economic and industrial policies. India needs to step up
investment in R&D to speed up import substitution and become a major
exporter of industrial goods.
Strategic
Chinese
transgressions across the LAC have increased from 75 in 2017 to more than 150
in 2019. In 2020, these have become far more menacing.
The
QUAD Alliance is still an informal entity and will take time to acquire enough
muscle to deter Chinese designs on our territory. At least for now, we must
ratchet up our own military presence on land and sea. Especially now, when the
government has given the armed forces a free hand to deal with any situation on
the LAC.
A
vital spinoff of economic and technological progress can be creation of a
powerful military-industrial complex. This will make us self-sufficient in
military equipment, boosting exports of military hardware, which can be
leveraged to consolidate India’s position as a power to reckon with.
It
is imperative for the government and the opposition to ensure that the
destabilising forces within the country are stamped out. Politics of
polarisation must end. Our minorities must be reassured of their stakeholder
status in the country’s unity, safety and prosperity.
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