Sunday, June 28, 2020

India-China Confrontation: Taming the Dragon




Our northern borders have been simmering for quite a while now, occasionally exploding into violent faceoffs, like the one in the Galwan Valley.

We all know the history of Chinese expansionism since Mao Zedong ousted Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. China has turned its aggressive hegemonism into a fine art by posing as victim of historical wrongs perpetrated by the “imperialist forces”. It nimbly clambers up the high moral pedestal to claim territories belonging to other sovereign nations, as it is happening in Southeast Asia, Far East and Central Asia. The countries that are not in its immediate geographical periphery like Sri Lanka, Maldives etc are subjugated through a well-planned debt-trap.

Coming back to India, one thought the dragon must have learnt its lessons from the 1967 thrashing received from the Indian Army in Nathu La. Obviously that hasn’t been the case, as the Galwan Valley confrontation and brazen intrusion into the Depsang Plateau show.

China does not believe in political or any other morality. It is impossible to pin it down to its commitments. Pt. Nehru, Rajiv Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee tried to woo China, only to be taken up the garden path and promptly rebuffed. Now Modi has learnt to his mortification that hugs and homilies do not count for much in hard-headed realpolitik. Mrs. Indira Gandhi was the only Indian Prime Minister who had rightly treated China as a rival and gone ahead with nuclearizing India to send a strong message to China in May 1974.

The question remains, how do we tame this dragon on the rampage? First, we need to cure ourselves of the genetic malaise of sitting on our laurels. After our triumph in the Bangladesh Liberation war and the exploding of nuclear device in 1974 several lotus eaters wanted the government to disband the armed forces. Our stupid, short-sighted babu-neta combine plotted to downgrade the soldier’s stature. This was apparent in the humiliation of Field Marshal Sam Maneckshaw. This, in combination with corruption, adversely affected our military preparedness and building of defence infrastructure.

Well begun, but…

Narendra Modi began his innings as India’s PM on a bright note when he invited the South Asian heads of state to his swearing-in ceremony. Great strategic wisdom was attributed to Modi’s move. But soon the cookie crumbled. Thanks to irresponsible and counter-productive anti-Muslim rhetoric Pakistan got further pushed into the waiting Chinese arms. Nawaz Sharif was ousted and the military ratcheted up terrorist strikes in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Today we have a rather hostile strategic environment. Almost all our small neighbours look upon China to counterbalance the big brotherly attitude of India. We cannot count upon even Nepal as a friend. On the other hand, China has cemented its presence in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan and Maldives. Now it is targeting Bhutan to complete its strategic stranglehold on India.

Dealing with the Dragon

No wonder the dragon is spewing flames all along the LAC. So, how do we send it back to its caves? Some firm steps ought to be taken on the diplomatic, economic and strategic fronts.

Diplomatic

Although India’s equation with Western democracies is far better than ever before, there is a need for mending fences with our neighbours. We cannot afford to have hostile neighbours. Our tendency for big brother approach must be replaced with a reassuring friendship on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Naturally, economic cooperation will be the most powerful binding factor. Can we provide an alternative to the Chinese model of economic cooperation to Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and other countries?

We have a positive image on the world stage, which needs to be leveraged to solidify the world opinion which is increasingly becoming wary of Chinese intentions. The COVID 19 pandemic has inflicted a mortal blow to the Chinese credibility at the global level. Its goodwill is at its nadir. India should campaign to generate global consensus for taming the dragon’s rampaging ambitions.

Economic

Well, if power flows through the barrel of gun, we must have the means to acquire and maintain that gun, its ammunition and attendant infrastructure. This is possible only through technological excellence and economic progress.

Our policy makers must be well aware that technological advancement and economic prosperity go hand in hand. But our investment on science related R&D has been inadequate. India’s Gross Expenditure on Research & Development is about 0.7 percent. This is way behind Israel’s 4.6 percent, South Korea’s 4.5 percent, Japan’s 3.2 percent, Germany’s 3 percent, USA’s 2.8 percent and China’s 2.1 percent. The economic and commercial spinoffs of technological advancements are there for all to see. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China and Singapore have prospered through exports of high-tech goods and services. Their industrial products – both consumer and capital goods – are now much in demand. France, China, Russia, USA and Israel are among the major exporters of highly sophisticated military hardware and software.

India imports a variety of finished products from China. These include engineering and electronic goods, automobile spare parts, bicycles, toys and leather goods, apart from raw materials for pharmaceuticals. In the financial year 2019-2020 the import bill was more than 65 billion dollars. On the other hand, our exports were about 17 billion dollars consisting of cotton yarn and ores etc.


Clearly, there is a vast scope for import substitution, provided the Indian government formulates right economic and industrial policies. India needs to step up investment in R&D to speed up import substitution and become a major exporter of industrial goods.

Strategic

Chinese transgressions across the LAC have increased from 75 in 2017 to more than 150 in 2019. In 2020, these have become far more menacing.

The QUAD Alliance is still an informal entity and will take time to acquire enough muscle to deter Chinese designs on our territory. At least for now, we must ratchet up our own military presence on land and sea. Especially now, when the government has given the armed forces a free hand to deal with any situation on the LAC.

A vital spinoff of economic and technological progress can be creation of a powerful military-industrial complex. This will make us self-sufficient in military equipment, boosting exports of military hardware, which can be leveraged to consolidate India’s position as a power to reckon with.

It is imperative for the government and the opposition to ensure that the destabilising forces within the country are stamped out. Politics of polarisation must end. Our minorities must be reassured of their stakeholder status in the country’s unity, safety and prosperity.

A united, stable and strong India is the surest deterrence against even the most powerful and determined enemy. It is possible to tame the dragon. If only our babu-neta combine summons up the right vision, attitude and courage.



No comments:

Featured Post

RENDEZVOUS IN CYBERIA.PAPERBACK

The paperback authored, edited and designed by Randeep Wadehra, now available on Amazon ALSO AVAILABLE IN INDIA for Rs. 235/...