Hindi-Paki Bhai Bhai?

 

YOUTUBE

When the Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa backed Prime Minister Imran Khan’s peace overture and suggested that India and Pakistan bury the past, three questions arose immediately:

1.    Why this sudden about-turn?

2.    Is it feasible for the two neighbours to live in peace?

3.    What sort of impact such a development will have on regional geopolitics?

Let us have a look.

Reasons for the latest overture

Until the other day, Pakistan and India were at each other’s throats. Infiltration into India from the Pakistan side remained unabated. Exchange of artillery fire had become a daily affair. Just when one thought that this had become the new normal at the LOC, suddenly we learned of the two neighbours' ceasefire. Now the two sides appeared inclined towards maintaining peace on the borders. Apparently, this was not voluntary, nor did the wisdom suddenly dawn on the belligerents. So, what could the reasons be for this development?

THE GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO

China’s rise as a military and economic superpower has upset the emerging global geopolitical order after the Soviet Union disintegrated. It appeared that the USA would be the sole big brother of a unipolar world. However, the dawn of the 21^st century witnessed the awakening of the sleeping dragon. From being a struggling Third World economy, China transformed into an economic and military superpower, as if by magic. In quick but well-thought-out moves, China spread its influence in Asia and Africa through military pacts and economic “cooperation”. China targeted the ASEAN and SAARC countries to emerge as a powerful neo-colonist.

Just when it appeared that Trump’s America was all set to curl into a shell and leave the Chinese to rule the roost, Joe Biden became the US President. He reversed the Trumpian foreign policy and restored to America its traditional role as the supreme hegemon. Now Americans are aggressively pushing back the Chinese expansionism in the Asia Pacific region while ensuring that the AF-Pak region remains in its camp after the US forces leave Afghanistan. This is why Americans are backing India to play a bigger role in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. Indians have been, for the first time, included in the Afghan peace talks despite opposition from Russia and China. Similarly, with active encouragement from the USA, the Quad is being turned into a trade-cum-military outfit to contain China’s aggressive moves vis-à-vis Taiwan, Australia and South-East Asia.

Moreover, with India’s strong pushback against Chinese aggression on the LAC, Pakistanis have apparently realised that their all-weather friend cannot be trusted to look after their interests vis-à-vis India. This belief has been reinforced because the Chinese are revising their strategy by refocusing on trade ties with India and placing border disputes on the backburner once again. The dragon seems to have realised that India is no pushover when it comes to military confrontation.

It seems there are other players interested in bringing India and Pakistan together. Americans are keen on this because they want the subcontinent to act as a bulwark against the Chinese expansion. One sees the United Arab Emirates’ move to broker peace between India and Pakistan in this light. And we all know the UAE is firmly in the US camp. The recent visit of US Defence Secretary Lloyd J Austin might also have been used for this purpose. Of course, his visit had a broader agenda.

PAKISTAN’S WORRISOME ECONOMIC HEALTH

According to the World Economic Forum, the youth unemployment rate in Pakistan stands at 8.5 per cent in a country where 64 per cent of the population is below the age of 30. The overall unemployment rate is touching 15%. The inflation rate has hit over 16%, with prices of food and other essentials going out of control. Its per capita income has seen a strong fall. The rampaging inflation and spiralling unemployment must be pushing Pakistan to rethink its confrontationist policy towards India.

Add to the above the fact that Pakistan's total public debt, which includes both domestic and external, was more than Rs. 36.3 trillion in the financial year 2019-20. Worse, the United Arab Emirates has demanded that its loan of $1billion be returned. With Saudi Arabia refusing to remain as generous as before, Pakistan’s traditional funding sources in West Asia are apparently drying up. For now, China is the only one left, and it is not exactly a generous elder brother. In fact, China has put even Shylock to shame – how it extracts much more than its pound of flesh as interest. With pittances trickling in from the World Bank, IMF etc., and the Financial Action Task Force's sword hanging over its head, Pakistan’s misery has hit through the ceiling.

BAGGAGE

Is the path to a permanent peace between India and Pakistan going to be smooth? Let us not forget that this is not the first time that Pakistan’s most powerful political institution – the Military Establishment – has made such a suggestion. At least two previous such gestures come readily to mind because they turned out to be deceptive. Gen. Zia Ul Haq had been making friendly overtures to India while harbouring, training and funding Khalistani terrorists during the 1980s. Secondly, while PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pak PM Nawaz Sharif were taking some serious steps towards peace and cooperation, General Musharraf resorted to the Kargil misadventure.

The baggage has other ingredients too. The Pakistani Establishment has institutionalised Hate India psyche as the only means of keeping their nation united. No matter what the doves may say, it will not be possible for any Pakistani ruler to do a complete about-turn and start singing Hindi Paki bhai bhai hymns. The hatred for India is too widespread and too deep to be cleansed in one go. It will take a united, coherent and sustained effort by all the Pakistani stakeholders to bring about the desired change. Realistically speaking, even if they make genuine attempts in this direction, the results will take several years, if not decades, to manifest. And obviously, this seems unlikely, given the hold bigots have on popular sentiment there. According to an estimate, there are around fifty Islamist outfits operating in Pakistan. Some of these operate across the borders with India and Afghanistan. Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Ansar aka Harkat-ul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Al Badr etc are some of the more ;prominent ones. There are hardly any signs of Pakistan dismantling its terror infrastructure. Either it is unwilling or unable to do so. Similarly, despite General Bajwa’s peace overture, nobody can guarantee that the rest of the Pakistani military establishment agrees with him.

The scenario has become more complex with the rise of Hindutva forces in India since 2014. It is not only non-state actors but also several central and state government ministers who have spewed venom against Pakistan while equating Indian Muslims with traitors or fifth columnists. The sentiment against Muslims in general and Pakistan, in particular, has turned so hostile in certain parts of India that one wonders how will the Modi government roll it back to create a political and social atmosphere conducive to facilitating India Pakistan friendship. It is true that Prime Minister Modi has made some positive gestures recently, like wishing Prime Minister Imran Khan quick recovery from COVID-19. But such courtesies are certainly not substantial enough. They are just that – courtesies, sans policy content. Much more needs to be done by the two countries for peace to become a permanent reality.

Why Indo-Pak peace is essential

ECONOMIC REASONS

Neither India nor Pakistan can afford to remain in the present state of permanent hostility, with their respective militaries ever ready for war. The economic costs are simply too high. Pakistan’s low-intensive warfare policy is proving costly to them in terms of men, money and social degradation. India, too, has to maintain a huge military presence on its borders to keep the infiltrators at bay and maintain peace within its borders that is socially, militarily and economically unhealthy. It will be stupid to keep nurturing past humiliations – real or imaginary – at the cost of a far better future for all.

Peace will certainly bring huge dividends to the two countries. Trade will boom. Investments in industries, infrastructure, healthcare, education, and many other fields can usher in unprecedented prosperity to both countries' people.

STRATEGIC REASONS

For India, it is essential to avoid two-front military conflict. We may be strong enough to defend our territory, but the cost would certainly be prohibitive. It would be wiser to neutralise such a possibility. It may not wean Pakistan away from China, but it would encourage them to avoid becoming the Chinese catspaw in South Asia.

Besides, India and Pakistan have among the best-trained militaries in the world. Their synergies can help bring peace and stability to not just South Asia but also in the Indian Ocean and Asia Pacific regions. This will also keep hegemons in check. China is having a free run of Asia and most of Africa, which is bound to hurt other nations' interests, including India and Pakistan, in the long run. If India and Pakistan join hands, they have an immense potential for rebalancing power equations in West Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia, which will benefit all. This may appear unlikely right now. But let us not forget that there are no permanent enemies and friends in politics – including its international version. Things can change radically. Who thought that the once bitter enemies like France and Germany or Japan and America will become such staunch allies?

SO, HOW TO BRING ABOUT PEACE

I believe that internal politics has a vital influence on a country’s foreign policy. Therefore, before launching into the Hindi-Paki bhai bhai anthem, there is a need for taking firm steps towards building mutual trust. The two countries must focus on cleansing their internal politics of hate towards minorities and stop equating them with traitors and fifth columnists. This has been happening both in Pakistan and India. Minorities in India and Pakistan must have the same status and rights as their compatriots.

The two countries must realise that the time for cosmetics has run out. This is clear from the BJP’s tactical silence on Bangladeshis, Muslims and Ghuspaithiyas in the Bengal election campaigns. With Joe Biden reversing Trump’s several policies, it will not be possible to get away with creating a false international image of being liberal, secular and progressive. Pakistan, too, will have to watch its steps in domestic politics. Both the countries need to bring about genuinely seismic transformation in their domestic politics. The 18th-century mindset must give way to a more liberal, secular and progressive mindset. Politics of hate must be replaced with politics of development. In India and Pakistan, there is an urgent need for healthy, positive and vibrant institutions in various fields, be it jurisprudence, economics, education or any other. This will greatly help remove mutual distrust and acrimony and lay a foundation for durable peace and prosperity in the region.

Will the rulers in the two countries realise this?

Let us wait and watch.