THE STUNNING TALIBAN TRIUMPH: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

YOUTUBE

Endless anarchy & a trillion misfortunes

The common folks of Afghanistan are unaware that they are sitting on a mineral wealth that is estimated to be worth between one and three trillion dollars. This ignorance is due to a lack of access to quality institutions of education and information, which need a liberal, progressive and peaceful environment to bloom. Historically, Afghanistan has remained the battleground for Great Gamers since ancient times. Over the millennia, Kambojs, Persians, Macedonians, Mauryas, Bactrians, Scythians, Parthians, Mongols and many others had either annexed or ravaged this hapless region. Consequently, Afghanistan has many ethnic groups ranging from Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Aimak, Baloch, Nuristanis, Pashayi, Pamiris, Nuristanis and many others.

The traditional warlords from Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara, Durrani and Ghilzai tribes resort to periodic bloodletting, which has continued for generations. The scenario turns more gruesome with running battles between Shias and Sunnis. Fierce tribal pride and a fanatical devotion to medieval values have only made the region ungovernable.

The most powerful colonial power of its time, Great Britain had to pay a heavy price for trying to subjugate Afghanistan. It settled for a compact in the form of the Durand Line. The mighty Soviet Union too was forced to retreat ingloriously. Now it is the turn of the United States of America to suffer the disgrace. These invasions, coupled with the stranglehold of local warlords ensured that the march of civilisation bypassed Afghanistan.

The Taliban and their friends and foes

Will the second coming of the Taliban stabilize Afghanistan? Will it bring the badly needed peace and prosperity? Have the Taliban changed enough to realise the value of modern and civilised governance? Will they enable the people to realise their full potential as global citizens?

Unfortunately, peace may not prevail in Afghanistan anytime soon. The Taliban regime’s domestic policies are not yet clear. How would the minorities and women be treated? How harshly the Sharia will be implemented? Its economic and social policies including education too will influence the state of Afghanistan. Despite their public assurances to the contrary, the Taliban may find it difficult to forgive former supporters of the US occupation forces.  Already, resistance movements are sprouting up in various parts of Afghanistan, especially in the Panjshir Valley – which has remained unconquerable. Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud are leading the Panjshir resistance.

Pakistan

Pakistan has always looked upon Afghanistan as its potential backyard that would provide strategic depth during a military confrontation with India. The Pakistan military will certainly try to put up their stooge in Kabul, which will create resentment across the tribal divides. A sure recipe for another round of civil war. It is really strange how the Pakistani leaders have refused to learn their lessons from past blunders. The gun culture, the widespread drug abuse and the spiralling crime rates have been direct results of Zia-ul-Haq’s policy of supporting extremists both in Afghanistan and India with the help of American arms and dirty money. Now they have done the same with tacit support from China and Russia. What is worse, neither the Haqqani Network nor Tehreek-e-Taliban of Pakistan has forgiven and forgotten the Pakistan Army’s duplicities. The relentless US drone attacks against Taliban and Pakistan Army’s Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the FATA region and North Waziristan, against Al Qaeda, Tehreek-e-Taliban, Haqqani Network and Islamic State affiliates, have made the Pashtuns develop massive resentment against the Pakistan Military.

China and Russia

China and Russia had their reasons for extending covert support to the Taliban. China has its eyes on the trillion-dollar worth mineral reserves of Afghanistan, especially the abundance of rare earth elements, which have a strategic value that cannot be quantified in terms of any currency. Moreover, a Taliban government provides an opportunity to China for lending funds and virtually take over its strategic assets and dictate terms to the government, as it has done to several countries including Sri Lanka and Myanmar in our neighbourhood. This also provides it with the opportunity to acquire greater clout among Central Asian countries.

For Russia, the American departure from Afghanistan presents a pleasant prospect of a vastly reduced US clout in the former Soviet states like Ukraine and Georgia. Already, Ukraine has seen how ineffective the Americans have been in preventing the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Yet, neither Russian nor China can be too comfortable with the rise of the Taliban. Both countries have significant Muslim populations which are not exactly reconciled to their second-class statuses in the two countries. The Chechens in Russia may feel encouraged to renew their bid for an independent Chechnya. There is every possibility of Islamist terrorists renewing their bid to destabilise Central Asian republics. There are confirmed reports of Al Qaeda presence in several parts of Afghanistan. This terrorist group is working in tandem with the formidable Haqqani Network, which is the Taliban’s ally. They may foment trouble not only in Chechnya but also in Dagestan. Although the Russians are making cautious friendly overtures to the Taliban, they may be discreetly working with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to create resistance against the Taliban in Northern Afghanistan, even while keeping open the channels of communication in Kabul. With memories of the Chechen war horrors still fresh, Russians are well aware of the consequences of allowing Islamist terror groups to enter the Central Asian republics.

Uighurs in China’s Xingjian province have been smarting under the Han domination for long and their resentment is bound to explode into an armed uprising with the backing of an ultra-right regime in Afghanistan. The East Turkistan Islamic Movement, also known as the Turkistan Islamic Movement,  may renew its violent activities in the Xingjian province to avenge atrocities committed by the Chinese government on Uighur Muslims. Moreover, its all-weather friend Pakistan is bound to become more vulnerable to hostile activities funded and backed by the new Taliban government in Kabul. This is evidenced by the recent spate of terror attacks on Chinese workers and assets in Pakistan executed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

India

India may find it hard to reconcile to the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan at a time when it is facing a real possibility of fighting on more than two fronts – the land frontiers in the North and the seas in the South. There is every possibility of Pakistan and China using Afghanistan’s Islamic militias to create disturbances in India. Would India join hands with its friends in the Northern Alliance to destabilise the  Taliban government? Or, would it take the diplomatic path to either have a working relationship with Afghanistan or convince the international community to ostracise it? Whatever it does, the government needs to stamp out the divisive elements within its rank and file who are creating a massive population of resentful minorities. It is unwise to alienate those who are your own.

United States of America

Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan has been widely criticised. Even Great Britain has made disapproving noises. Doubts have been ignited in Taiwan about Americans as reliable allies. If China decides to go all out to annex Taiwan, can the US be trusted to remain steadfast in its commitment to protecting Taiwan? This question is no longer hypothetical. However, it must be admitted that American interests are vested in Taiwan on a vastly greater scale than they were in Afghanistan. If America does an Afghanistan there, it is going to have implications for the entire NATO’s credibility.

The American President may have corrected a historic blunder committed two decades ago. Successive American Presidents, especially the Bush father-son duo, have been resorting to mindless violation of the sovereignty of several West Asian nations. It made neither economic nor strategic sense to destroy Iraq and Libya. Strangely, Americans ignored history while deciding to invade Afghanistan. No power on earth has ever been able to subjugate Afghanistan. Moreover, the invasion appeared more a case of hurt egos than any sensible strategic move.

Taliban’s Big 7 and Afghanistan’s future

Can Afghanistan break out of the stereotype in which it has remained trapped for centuries? Can it emerge as a modern Islamic state? It would be unrealistic to expect them to adopt a western-style democracy as Turkey did under Kemal Ataturk. But surely, the Taliban can provide a far more liberal and progressive government than what they did during their previous stint? Let us not forget that the present Taliban coalition has several groupings that have diverse characteristics. Right now, they appear united in their vision of a Taliban ruled Afghanistan. They would need to remain so and rein in the possibility of individual ego clashes and ambitions to pull the country out of the swirling dark waters of despair.

Much will depend on the Supreme Commander, or Emir, Haibatullah Akhundzada. Born in 1961, Akhundzada became the Taliban's third supreme commander after the U.S. killed his predecessor in a 2016 drone strike. He is better known as a religious leader than a military commander and maintains a low profile. It remains to be seen whether he remains reticent or turns into a fiery demagogue.

Abdul Ghani Baradar has been the most visible face of the Taliban. Most probably he will head the next government. He was closely associated with Osama bin Laden and co-founded the Taliban along with Mullah Mohammad Omar, who was the group's first supreme leader. At present an unknown personality, Baradar’s actions may well mould the future of Afghanistan society.

Abdul Hakim Haqqani is Akhundzada’s close confidant and has been in charge of negotiations with the US-backed Ghani regime. He also heads the council of senior religious scholars.

Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai speaks English fluently and has travelled the world extensively as deputy foreign minister when the militants last controlled power in Afghanistan. But, not much can be expected of him in terms of influencing the Taliban’s domestic policies.

Zabiullah Mujahed, the main Taliban spokesperson may play an important role in influencing the global perception of the Taliban. He is good at interacting with journalists and does everything within his power to brighten the Taliban image.

The above five leaders may well try to fashion a steady and relatively progressive polity in Afghanistan. But the same cannot be said of the following two.

Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the Haqqani Network, has the potential to destroy the coalition from within. He controls the coalition’s finances and military assets across Pakistan and Afghanistan. If his ambitions get the better of his good sense, one can say goodbye to the prospects of peace there.

Mohammad Yaqoob is the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar. He may well feel cheated out of his rightful place at the top of the hierarchy. Since he is a product of the Pakistan-run madrasas and now manages military activities in tandem with Sirajuddin Haqqani, he can be a problem for the current Taliban dispensation.

Let us not forget the trouble brewing in Panjshir. Saleh and Massoud can upset all calculations if they manage to garner vital military and logistic support from neighbouring Central Asian countries. But that is a big ‘if’.

Afghanistan needs an eternal respite from the vicious circle of turmoil and killings. It needs modern institutions of governance and education that will nurture tolerant and progressive attitudes among the rulers and the ruled, the electors and the elected. It may appear idle or too idealistic but let us imagine if the Afghan leaders play the role of a unifying force, provide solidity to the nation, and adopt a scientific temper and progressive vision. Afghanistan would have a bright chance of becoming an economic power with a high degree of technological sophistication. Do they have it in them to perform the miracle of creating a new template for a liberal, progressive and Islamic democracy?

If this miracle does not happen, the Balkanisation of Afghanistan may well be the real consequence in the not too distant future. That is a horrific prospect for South Asia in particular and the rest of the world in general. The Taliban will have to make the choice right now.