Sharad Pawar’s stepping down
as the Nationalist Congress Party’s Chief does not come as a surprise. Pawar’s
ambitions of becoming India’s Prime Minister or, at least, a major player in
the national politics, were gradually dissipating. When his party lost the “national
party” status, it only confirmed his diminishing stature. His failing health
and the age factor only made him more vulnerable to his ambitious nephew Ajit
Pawar’s aggressive behavior. A seasoned politician, he may still try to
preserve the turf for his daughter, Supriya Sule, but that may not be easy now.
Pawar’s stepping down will
facilitate BJP’s expansion plans in Maharashtra. Already they have cut Uddhav
Thakre’s Shiv Sena to size through Eknath Shinde. Now they will use Ajit Pawar
to destroy NCP, which should put an end to the Maratha lobby’s supremacy in the
state’s politics. Sharad Pawar has so far kept the Maha Vikas Aghadi together
even though Uddhav Thakre’s Shiv Sena is not comfortable with the Congress
Party. Look at their differences over Savarkar, for instance. Will Pawar’s
resignation spell disintegration of the Maha Vikas Aghadi? As for the Indian
National Congress, in the absence of a leader of substance, it will remain a
has-been for the foreseeable future. Sanjay Nirupam is a middleweight leader
whose support base is amongst the Hindi speaking Mumbaikars. The party does not
have a Pan-Maharashtra leader of stature right now.
So, Maharashtra politics is
in for interesting times. It remains to be seen, how Ajit Pawar plays his cards
from now on. Will he stay within the present NCP’s fold or do a Shinde to his
party? If he walks into the BJP camp, will he be satisfied with a niche in the central
government, or will he go all out to replace Shinde’s Shiv Sena in the state as
BJP’s partner in the Maharashtra government? Eknath Shinde has already
demonstrated that he is no pushover for the rough and tumble of Maharashtra politics.
He won’t let go easily.
With the Karnataka Assembly
elections upon us, political experts have already started speculating on the
2024 General Elections. It’s surprising that our experts are more concerned about
the election result’s fallout vis-à-vis coming general elections than on the
fate of the contesting parties in the state elections. This maybe because BJP’s
loss is already being taken as a forgone conclusion. Will BJP’s loss in
Karnataka result in some sort of ripple effect leading to its ouster from the Center?
What about the Modi factor? Is it waxing, waning, or as steady as ever? Supriya
Sule’s prediction of the first bombshell has proven accurate with Sharad
Pawar’s resignation. Will the Delhi bombshell be in the shape of Modi’s replacement
with Yogi Adityanath? If that happens, would it encourage the opposition
parties to join hands and snatch power from the BJP led NDA?
Let us be clear on one
thing. The Karnataka election results cannot be taken as reliable indicators of
the General Election results. The local issues in Karnataka, especially
corruption, have overshadowed the issues which BJP would have liked to bank upon.
Like Tipu Sultan, Hijab, etc. The politics of polarization will not work when
people are fed up with corruption, rising poverty and unemployment and mis-governance.
Again, they have no real choice except for replacing the Tweedledum with
Tweedledee. Neither Congress and JDS nor BJP etc are paragons of honesty and
good governance.
If Sharad Pawar’s
resignation has jolted the opposition parties’ efforts to unite against Modi in
the 2024 general elections, the Karnataka assembly election results may not
affect the process either way, unless Congress scores an overwhelming victory
that might attract support from the parties that have been reluctant to accept the
Congress Party in the leadership role.
Talking of leadership roles,
there are too many regional satraps aspiring to become India’s Prime Minister.
Sharad Pawar never gave up his dream of leading the nation. Nitish Kumar is
another aspirant, with Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal being potential
challengers. Although, so far, Rahul Gandhi appears to be the Congress Party’s
unstated PM face, one would not be surprised if Priyanka Gandhi replaces him
for the post at the last moment. We all have seen that Rahul is not really comfortable
playing a politician’s role, while Priyanka sparkles in action.
The leadership glut is not
the only problem in the way of opposition unity. Unlike BJP, none of the
parties have dedicated cadres on the ground – barring perhaps the DMK. Others
make do with the flotsam and jetsam of the political landscape in various
regions. The Congress had a disciplined cadre once upon a time. Now it has
time-servers, a few of whom are prepared to sweat it out at the grassroots
level for the party.
Agreeing on a common agenda
and vision statement are certainly going to pose problems for the opposition,
given the fact that most of these parties – barring the Dravida parties and the
Congress – do not have any credible ideological moorings. Shiv Sena’s track
record as anti-North Indian and anti-South Indian campaigner is bound to jar
the unity efforts.
In the absence of a common
agenda and a credible leadership, it is going to be well-nigh impossible for
the opposition to build-up a political narrative that would overshadow the
BJP’s jingoistic-polarizing strategy based on a storyline of victimhood. The
Congress Party’s eagerness to project itself more Hindu than its Hindutva rival
has eroded its credibility among the minorities and those Hindus who still
swear by the Gandhi-Nehru brand of liberal secularism. Worse, their socialist
credentials have been stolen by Modi’s populist welfare schemes that have won
over the economically weaker sections’ loyalty for Modi.
Then there have been missed
opportunities for triggering a mass movement against the BJP. Most glaring was
the demonetization blunder. If only the opposition parties had shown some
political savvy, the 2019 general elections would have thrown up extraordinary
results. The Vyapam scandal is another missed opportunity, which should have
channelized the common man’s aversion to corruption against BJP. The recent
revelations by Satya Pal Malik on the Pulwama tragedy, too, could have been
turned into a rallying issue. Similarly, the case of sexploitation of our women
wrestlers could have put the BJP on the mat. It is not happening.
The reasons are not far to
seek. Every political party is guilty of corruption, mis-governance and crimes
against women. Moreover, clashing egos, political myopia and collective fear of
the Enforcement Directorate, CBI and Intelligence Bureau are preventing the
politicians from coming together on a common platform.
But the greatest tragedy
hitting the Indian democracy is the spineless media that has so far refused to
play its assigned role as a watchdog and upholder of facts. The Nirbhaya case
gained nationwide traction thanks to the media’s role. But, today, news
channels are vying with one another for the crumbs thrown at them by the ruling
party, and they are happy with their status as lapdogs.
Whether one likes it or not,
the Indian National Congress is the only party that can redeem India’s liberal,
secular and democratic values. The party must rebuild its mass base by
recruiting truly dedicated grassroots cadre. Set up a screening process that
would allow only persons with clean image and credible track-records to join
the party. Internal democracy must be restored in full so that the best and
most deserving rise to the top echelons of the party’s hierarchy. This will
ensure a vibrant Congress and a strong democratic India.
There is no other option.
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