Pakistan’s Curse

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Will Pakistan cease to exist as a state? Are the threats to its existence real and insurmountable?

Actually questions about Pakistan’s viability and durability as a state have been raised off and on ever since its birth. These became sharper after the formation of Bangladesh but died down over the years. However, in the post-Zia-ul-Haq phase, more and more people have focused on Pakistan’s viability.

Let us have a brief look at the various challenges facing Pakistan.

Economic Viability:

Pakistan’s economy stands at a crucial moment, as longstanding structural weaknesses threaten to derail its positive trajectory in the absence of reforms. Over 240 million citizens’ welfare depends on sustainable expansion. So, it becomes essential to replace the current consumption-dominant model, which is marked by poor investment in productivity and human capital, with an export oriented model of development.

Pakistan’s failure to expand its tax revenue base, which contributes a paltry 13% to its GDP, has hit its development aspirations hard. The low industrial base has become a major cause for inadequate investment in health, education and other vital public services. A high 90% debt-to-GDP ratio and import-driven economy have led to abysmally low rate of job creation. Pakistan needs to look beyond textiles to strengthen its industrial base. Similarly, it needs to significantly increase the agricultural yields to absorb its rural labour force.

While remittances and external partnerships provide temporary relief, over-reliance on overseas patronage is unsustainable amid global downturn risks. The perpetual political turmoil from alternating civilian and military governments unnerves investors seeking stable policy environments and robust regulatory frameworks which are essential for corporate planning.

Pakistan must pursue multilayered economic reforms simultaneously to reorient from consumption to investment-focused foundations. Improving tax machinery and widening the formalised enterprise base can expand revenue streams for spending on human development that uplifts productivity. Special export zones, public-infra partnerships, agricultural revamps and leveraging information technology for growth provide immense potential.

But reform sustainability requires a strong political leadership with a will to do the right thing. Nurturing democracy by empowering civil society and fostering new political talent offers a huge scope for stability. This will enable visionary governments to pursue structural changes and create the space for long-term planning. With its bulging youth population eager for opportunities, Pakistan cannot afford business as usual. Economic revival beckons via far-sighted reforms before demography overwhelms the state’s capacity. Embracing competitiveness and accountable governance holds the key to lasting prosperity.

Political Viability

Pakistan’s turbulent democratic transition remains captive to unelected centres of power. This has deprived Pakistan of a civilian supremacy that alone can lead to meaningful consolidation. Let us be clear, Pakistan’s polity is in a dangerous disarray as accountability has been given a short shrift. Short-lived civilian governments beholden to the military establishment have become Pakistan’s curse.

Pakistan’s military dominates not only its national security policies but almost every aspect of decision making at all levels. It enjoys outsized budgets, nuclear custodianship and intelligence apparatus control. Add to that civilian incompetence and the misery of Pakistani politics becomes complete. Military top brass have monopolised the nation’s commercial assets, including infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing. There is complete opacity when it comes to the working of military-owned influential conglomerates like the Fauji Foundation.

This powerful economic clout directly enables political interference. The army is the ultimate arbiter in making and breaking political leadership. Although sporadic attempts at transparency and streamlining asset holdings signal positive if modest shifts, these lack depth to ensure the military’s subservience to representative oversight.

The military is unlikely to ever voluntarily cede its backseat driver policy. Constant political turmoil hampers governance capabilities essential for voter trust and party growth. With divided opposition parties immersed in personality platforms rather than institution building, public faith in democratic progress suffers.

While Pakistan’s vibrant media and civil society provide checks against excess, true civilian supremacy requires military confinement to strict constitutional bounds. Asset transparency and real democratic oversight would signal meaningful reform, reinforcing independence from personal interests. In the absence of necessary course corrections, the present hybrid rule leaves faith in democratic evolution tenuous among disenchanted citizens.

Societal

Religious minorities face growing intolerance, violence, and unequal justice as extremist elements have hijacked the state and the society. Jinnah’s successors showed little respect for his vision of an egalitarian Muslim homeland. Ideological divisions have only sharpened over decades.

Blasphemy laws disproportionately target minority faiths like Hindus and Christians with mandatory death sentences for vague offences. They are frequently subjected to mob abuse over mere accusations. When a fanatical group is banned under international pressure, it re-emerges under an alternative name, retaining reactionary support. Mainstream assimilation of radical interpretations has only strengthened the anti-minority culture in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the Talibanisation trends, which have been spreading since the 1980s Afghan jihad, have powerfully reinforced sectarian divides, giving rise to militancy. Moral policing campaigns by clerics in different parts of Pakistan have become a norm. Weak and sporadic fightback by the civil society has only produced nationwide militant networks like the TTP, killing over 70,000 Pakistanis by some accounts, until recent military actions reversed the tide.

Extremism persists through civic, religious indoctrination and online pathways. This has infected the educated youth and diaspora alike. The trend towards identity based consolidation has strengthened. While counter-movements gradually mobilise to reclaim moderate ground, mass-scale societal transformation remains uncertain without muscular state efforts.

In order to redeem the long forgotten vision of a democratic, liberal Pakistan it is essential to enforce constitutional protections for women, minorities, dissenters and cultural freedom. There is a strong need for regulation of madrasas and implementing counter-radicalisation programs.

The unresolved clash between ideological conformity and pluralistic tolerance leaves Pakistan at crossroads. It remains to be seen whether repressive uniformity enforced through militant and majoritarian channels prevails further; or whether societal resilience will stem the radical tides. In the latter case, it would be a tremendous progress towards building an inclusive civic nationalism. Otherwise, minority alienation and extremist mainstreaming is guaranteed. Only powerful reforms, which firmly re-channel the state policy against appeasing radicals, can guarantee a hope for reconciliation.

Pakistan needs to take urgent steps for course correction. Otherwise, the damage by decades of misrule and persecution will become irreversible. They need to learn lessons from the Bangladesh experience.

Pakistan’s judiciary:

Pakistan’s courts have an indispensable duty as guardians of justice and law. However, they remain mired in contradictions, which undermine their institutional independence. This deters them from dispensing genuine justice and protect the rights of common citizens. 

Despite spearheading democratic pushback against a former dictator’s overreach, Pakistan’s Supreme Court soon condoned fresh infringements, resulting in the weakening of elected governments. The judicial flip-flopping hints at prolonged military influence over judicial processes, which frequently result in the enabling of coups and legitimising swearing-in ceremonies before pliant benches, with dissent brutally silenced over the decades.

Lower courts fare worse with obsolete policing laws and mounting case backlogs, which erode timely justice. Torture and corruption nurture a culture of impunity. Military interference destabilises civilian authority in the name of accountability, sparing establishment figures and fuelling allegations of bias against political class.

Reducing the military’s overbearing influence over judicial mechanisms remains essential to nurture consistency, merit and integrity as nonpartisan arbiters. There is an urgent need for rehabilitating institutional credibility as stewards of justice, and not saboteurs of democracy.

Geopolitical

Pakistan’s strategic location at the crossroads of major regions leaves its viability hostage to intense great power competition. This has resulted in serious difficulties for Pakistan’s act of balancing between major powers. Presently, strong Chinese ties have expanded with massive Belt & Road infrastructure investments topping $28 billion. China has also become an important partner in security cooperation against India. The deeper partnership aligns mutual interests but also risks over-dependence. Although the USA has resumed aid, differences persist over Taliban policy in Afghanistan and nuclear weapons. 

Gulf partners like Qatar provide economic lifelines enabling temporary relief. However, perpetual conflict with neighbouring India remains the biggest long-term drain on Pakistan’s resources and stability. Four wars and border clashes have defined ties since independence. Water disputes over Kashmiri glaciers risk escalation as climate impacts accelerate. Terrorism threats invite retaliation like the 2019 Balakot strikes. Although both have nuclear weapons that deter a full-scale war, miscalculation dangers exist.

Ultimately, despite its useful global partners, Pakistan cannot fulfil its economic potential without resolving outstanding crises. Constitutional settlement of Kashmir is indispensable to enable democratic consolidation domestically and unlock regional development through South Asian integration. In the absence of fundamental rapprochement that will allow relaxation of sanctions and connectivity, the unfinished business of Partition will haunt future generations indefinitely. Resolving the Kashmir impasse holds the key towards lasting viability through fostering reconciliation over retribution.

In conclusion, we can say that Pakistan faces intense economic, political, and social pressures undermining its viability. It requires comprehensive reform before instability overwhelms its fragile foundations. Despite its vital geopolitical location and partnerships, dysfunctional power dynamics stunt its democratic evolution and social cohesion.

Military dominance over nominal civilian rule manifests through weak political parties, which cannot foster grassroots legitimacy while radical elements subvert inclusive nationalism. Perpetual external conflicts drain resources. Economic takeoff remains hampered by instability.

Pakistan’s leaders must urgently overhaul dysfunctional governance and social contracts through constitutional reforms that will power-sharing, and end internal colonisation. Imaginative visions summoning unified reconstruction can re-channel youth towards sustainable democracy. Reviving Pakistan’s promise as a secular state is indispensable for realising its remarkable potential through urgent structural reboot.

Do they have the political will for taking up this task? Only time will tell.