Nitish has done it again. He has re-entered the BJP camp showing no sign of shame or scruple. But then, this is how politics in India works. Nitish is not the first nor will he be the last to change sides for political advancement, survival or greed. He has certainly made the likes of Bhajan Lal of Haryana look like novices in this game. Imagine, getting sworn in as chief minister thrice in 2 years without the state assembly being dissolved! That’s Nitish Kumar for you! By the way, some creative media outlets have described this as Ghar Wapsi! Now, which exactly is Nitish’s ghar? Not BJP and certainly not UPA. Not even his brainchild, the INDIA coalition. His real ghar is the CM’s chair, which he has used every low and high trick to keep under his occupation.
But this is not purely about Nitish, it is more about the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or INDIA which he had assiduously knitted together in 2023 to create a united opposition front against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance for the coming Lok Sabha elections. Now he has jumped into the BJP camp, which he had sworn to defeat in the 2024 general elections!
However, even before Nitish did his latest backflip, deep ideological differences between the INDIA partners had become manifest. TMC and AAP were wary of Congress asserting its dominance on the national stage. There were conflicts over sharing chief minister posts in states like Bihar and Jharkhand, where no single party was in the majority. The disjointed campaigns and statements during state elections exposed the lack of coordination. Their failure to mount a united challenge led to the NDA scoring comprehensive victories in Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Although they put up a better performance in Karnataka, the opposition was far from posing any serious threat to the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls.
Desertions and Distrust Deepen the Crisis
In Maharashtra, senior NCP leader Ajit Pawar led a faction to merge with the BJP, toppling the Congress-led government in the state. These key defections are signs of the deep crisis facing the INDIA coalition. It points towards the self-serving political ambitions of regional leaders who have repeatedly betrayed any sense of opposition solidarity. Their ideological and political commitment to the alliance stands highly questionable.
Mamata’s Regional Ambitions Limit Her Value to Opposition Unity
While TMC could have played a pivotal role in challenging BJP’s dominance through a united opposition, Mamata’s regional ambitions make her reluctant. She wants TMC to stay independent while keeping national options open depending on 2024 equations.
Fresh from two straight West Bengal election victories, with over 200 seats, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC dominates the state’s politics. This allows Mamata to maximise home advantage without accommodating demanding alliance partners by going solo. She harbours national ambitions for herself and the TMC as a Third Front, challenging both national parties. Contesting independently gives her more post-poll bargaining power compared to being a minor UPA or united opposition player. Past battles with Congress in the state also make TMC cadres wary of aligning with WB Congress leaders again.
Mamata keeps her options open for post-poll alignments by not openly tilting towards Congress. This allows negotiating better terms closer to the 2024 polls before any understanding. The TMC wants to avoid an alliance with Congress because the latter is still battling various investigations. The TMC too is vulnerable to investigation because of scams like ‘cut money’.
This calculative strategy may maximise TMC’s West Bengal clout but risks dividing the anti-BJP vote. It highlights the persistent challenge of powerful regional satraps harbouring national ambitions within the UPA bloc.
Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena
Uddhav Thackeray is facing a severe crisis in his party after a massive split led by Eknath Shinde, who defected to the BJP along with 40 MLAs and became the chief minister of Maharashtra. Uddhav’s faction, which was left with only 15 MLAs, also lost the party name, symbol, and office to the Shinde camp. Uddhav has challenged the Election Commission’s verdict in the Supreme Court, but the legal battle has drained his resources and morale. Uddhav resigned as the chief minister after the split and is now trying to retain his loyal supporters in the Mumbai-Konkan region, where he hopes to gain sympathy from the voters who feel betrayed by the BJP and the Shiv Sena rebels. However, his party has become weak and irrelevant in the rural areas of Maharashtra, where the BJP has a firm hold and influence. Uddhav is also seeking to revive his party by appealing to the Marathi identity and pride, and by opposing the BJP and the Shiv Sena rebels on various issues.
But Uddhav is in a difficult situation after losing his majority and power in the state. His faction is struggling to survive and compete with the BJP and the Shiv Sena rebels, who have the upper hand in terms of numbers and resources. Uddhav’s only hope is to rebuild his party from scratch, with the help of the sympathy factor in some urban areas.
Sharad Pawar’s NCP
The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by veteran leader Sharad Pawar, performed better than its allies in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, which collapsed after the Shiv Sena split. The NCP has a stable base of around 50-55 MLAs, making it the second-largest party in the state after the BJP. The NCP has yet to declare its strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and is exploring various options for forming a coalition against the BJP. However, the party is facing a lot of pressure from the central agencies, which are conducting raids and investigations into the corruption charges against some of its leaders and ministers during the MVA government. The BJP is trying to tarnish the NCP’s image, which was built on Pawar’s reputation and experience. The party also witnesses some infighting and defections in some of its strongholds, such as western Maharashtra, where some leaders are unhappy with Pawar’s decisions.
The NCP is still a relevant force in Maharashtra politics, thanks to Pawar’s leadership and experience. However, the party is on the back foot, as it has to deal with the challenges posed by the BJP, the central agencies, and the internal dissent. The party’s future depends on how well Pawar can forge an anti-BJP alliance, manage the internal conflicts, and counter the allegations arising from the previous MVA tenure.
Other partners, too, are choosing different paths for themselves.
The Samajwadi Party is aspiring to regain lost ground in Uttar Pradesh. Its boss, Akhilesh Yadav, has announced that the party will fight the 2024 polls alone without aligning with Congress or other regional parties as it limits its positioning.
The Biju Janata Dal enjoys a dominant position in Odisha. Naveen Patnaik has kept BJD independent of national alliances to maintain flexibility. This stand continues for 2024.
The YSR Congress Party won a landslide victory in Andhra Pradesh in 2019. So, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy aims to sweep the state in 2024 single-handedly without requiring coalition support.
The abandoning of the INDIA coalition by these regional bigwigs further weakens and isolates the Congress-led opposition bloc. It cedes greater space for the BJP-led NDA to exploit in the upcoming electoral battle of 2024.
The Indian National Congress is facing internal desertions and strife. The latest deserter is Milind Deora of Mumbai, who has joined Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Earlier, Ghulam Nabi Azad, a veteran Congress leader, had resigned in August 2022 after spending over 50 years in the party. He has since launched his own political outfit, the Democratic Azad Party. Jaiveer Shergill, a young Supreme Court lawyer and national spokesperson, resigned citing internal conflicts within Congress. He later joined the BJP. RPN Singh, a Congress heavyweight from Uttar Pradesh, joined the BJP before the 2022 state elections. Jitin Prasada, a former minister under UPA rule, switched from Congress to BJP in 2021. Jyotiraditya Scindia, reputedly close to the Gandhi family, and a former Union Minister under Congress, joined the BJP in 2020, resulting in the collapse of the Kamal Nath government in Madhya Pradesh. Sushmita Dev, a former MP and Congress women’s wing chief resigned in 2021 and joined TMC. Priyanka Chaturvedi quit as a Congress spokesperson in 2019 to switch allegiance to Shiv Sena.
Can the ‘Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra’ Revive the Congress Party’s Electoral Fortunes?
Unfazed by the desertions and intrigues, the Indian National Congress has embarked on a high-profile mass contact program called the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ now renamed ‘Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra’ led by Rahul Gandhi. It aims to reconnect with people and mobilise grassroots support ahead of key state and national elections. However, this outreach faces deep organisational and structural challenges that have eroded Congress’ electoral competitiveness for decades.
The yatra has generated initial public interest, as is clear in decent turnouts and media coverage. Rahul comes across as more confident, combative, and in touch with people’s issues. However, early euphoria seems to give way to familiar troubles like thin attendance, factionalism and an inability to translate rally support into booth-level mobilisation.
Congress continues to suffer from a lack of decisive leadership, bureaucratic conflicts, mass desertions to the BJP and an inability to build strong regional alliances. Unless Congress undertakes serious organisational revamps—around leadership, governance and alliances—high-profile rallies cannot mask the deep rot that has rendered it electorally ineffective.
If the Indian National Congress is really serious about staging a comeback, it must restore genuine internal democracy. This will facilitate new leadership talent with a vision more in tune with the needs of 21st-century India. The old fogies surrounding Rahul are incapable of rejuvenating the party.
It would be a good idea for Rahul, Priyanka and Sonia to take political sanyas and let the Indian National Congress sink or swim in political seas hit by the saffron tsunami!
No comments:
Post a Comment