By the time this video is published, voting in the Pakistan general elections would have ended. The results will be announced on February 22nd. Why have the elections become necessary? They have been long overdue. Following the parliament’s dissolution on August 9th, 2022, a caretaker government headed by Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, was established. As per the Pakistan constitution, the elections should have been held within 90 days of the dissolution. But that did not happen because the deep state was looking for a pliant alternative. We all know Imran Khan was proving to be a thorn in the Pakistan Establishment’s flesh. Anyway, the caretaker government has been tasked with ensuring fair and transparent elections. Despite this, there are still concerns about the impartiality of the caretaker regime and Election Commission of Pakistan, considering the prolonged crackdown on opposition leader Imran Khan and his PTI party. Let us not forget that the Pakistan Army has preferred puppets as PMs. There is no way it is going to be different this time either.
The 70-year-old Khan was removed from office in April 2022 after a no-confidence vote. He had been pushing for early elections since his ousting, but was apprehended in August 2022 on allegations of corruption. Khan, though released on bail, was later imprisoned again on charges related to the political misuse of a diplomatic cipher. To make matters worse, the PTI has lost its election symbol. So, its candidates are fighting the elections as independents.
The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif, are other major political parties in the election fray. The previous ruling coalition was formed by the PPP and PML-N.
For the statistically minded, here are some facts and figures related to the current elections:
About 13 crore registered voters are eligible to vote in the 2024 Pakistani General Elections
Male registered voters make up about 7 crore (53.87%) of the total.
There are about 6 crore (46.13%) female registered voters
Over 2 crore new voters added since 2018 elections
44.22% voters are between ages 18-35
National Assembly
Voters will elect 336 Members of the National Assembly
266 seats will be filled through first-past-the-post single-member constituencies
60 seats are reserved for women, allocated proportionally based on general seats won
10 seats are reserved for non-Muslims, allocated proportionally
Provincial Assemblies
749 members will be elected across 4 provincial assemblies
593 general seats are allocated through first-past-the-post system
132 seats are reserved for women
24 seats are reserved for non-Muslims
Reserved Seats Nominations
459 women candidates have filed for 60 National Assembly reserved seats
1,365 women candidates have filed for 132 provincial assembly reserved seats
The elections are taking place at a time of economic turmoil and rising militant attacks across Pakistan. The outcome will be crucial in determining the country’s future policy trajectory across multiple fronts.
Context and Significance
As the world’s fifth most populous nation, Pakistan faces monumental challenges that require competent leadership and good governance. The February 8th general election is thus pivotal for the country’s 237 million citizens and regional stability in South Asia.
Pakistan spent much of 2023 on the brink of potential debt default. It is crucial to cooperate with the IMF and international lenders to sustain the recent economic recovery. The crisis had severe consequences, including inflation, shortages, and hardship, emphasising the urgent need to restore living standards. Add to that the increasing number of militant attacks and you have the picture of a very vulnerable nation.
Fair polls and smooth transitions in government are vital amid such underlying volatility. The new administration will need to deliver on multiple fronts—spurring growth, generating jobs, relieving poverty, enhancing basic services, improving security and pushing reforms.
Candidates and Election Mechanism
More than 22,700 candidates from over 80 parties are competing for 1,085 seats in the national and four provincial assemblies. As stated earlier, top contenders include former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which has been barred from using its election symbol, and the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition led by Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N and the Bhutto family’s PPP.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) conducts polls under constitutional oversight. Technology enhances transparency—electronic voting machines are being introduced and over 800,000 security personnel deployed. Biometric verification minimises identity fraud. Women’s reserved seats encourage participation.
Yet, allegations abound regarding misuse of state resources to influence results. The ECP’s autonomy and ability to prevent rigging also face questions given crackdowns on the PTI. Such issues could spur post-election discontent.
Economic Woes and Public Hardship
Whoever forms government will inherit an economy that saw growth plunge below 2%, inflation breach 27% and reserves nosedive in 2022. Devastating floods compounded underlying weaknesses.
Costly energy and food imports strain external accounts. Debt servicing and defence expenditures limit fiscal flexibility. Falling rupee value stokes price pressures. Loss-making state-owned firms add to inefficiencies. Tax revenues are not enough to meet routine expenditures. To secure $3 billion financing, Islamabad devalued currency, raised taxes, energy tariffs and interest rates—hitting people already reeling from job losses and reduced incomes.
Pakistan economy’s future prospects hinge on continuing reforms—broadening the narrow tax base, enhancing productivity, curbing wastages and maintaining consistency in policies. Innate resilience, overseas aid and China’s infrastructure support offer hope. But leadership vision is essential.
The problem of extremism and its impact on security.
The Pakistan Taliban’s resurgent militancy producing rising civilian casualties spotlights instability in border regions and major cities. Ethno-nationalist groups remain active in Balochistan despite state attempts at pacification. Militant attacks surged in 2023, killing over 1,000 people—the highest toll in six years. Ongoing security threats have been compounded by developments in Afghanistan and the intricate dynamics in provinces such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Weak police capacity allows criminal gangs and militant penetration of urban areas. Corruption saps efficiency of institutions managing internal security challenges.
Approaches to Military Control and Counterterrorism
National security policies in Pakistan, concerning both external defence and internal militancy, are shaped by the country's military, including the influential Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Attempts by non-military leaders to gain more control have been unsuccessful. This imbalance has produced mixed outcomes.
Although the army is perceived as a source of stability, its approach in troubled areas such as Balochistan has led to increased alienation because of human rights abuses. Space for operation is still maintained by militant groups, particularly those aligned with perceived strategic interests.
Calibrated approaches are vital—avoiding blunt force while crafting political solutions wherever possible. This includes conditional amnesties that incentivise demilitarisation. Regional security partnerships to eliminate cross-border havens also remain important.
Yet the failure of multiple peace attempts with groups like the TTP underlines risks. Temporary deals enabled militants to regroup before resuming attacks. Force modernisation is essential to counter militancy—both technology upgrades and enhancing soldier capabilities to execute specific missions like counterinsurgency in non-traditional battlefields.
Afghan Refugee Crisis and Regional Instability
Decades of conflict in Afghanistan have resulted in a vast refugee population in Pakistan—1.3 million registered and over a million more unregistered. This protracted humanitarian crisis has sparked tensions. Refugees drain socioeconomic resources and distort labour markets. Clashes with locals flare up, especially where refugees outnumber Pakistani inhabitants.
Islamabad now seeks a coordinated Afghan policy with China, who considers stability vital for regional trade and security obligations regarding dissident Uighur groups. But border tensions persist despite the Taliban administration in Kabul. Pakistani extremist factions continue to find sanctuary and support across the border.
In effect, while shared interests drive China-Pakistan cooperation on Afghan reconciliation and counterterrorism, results remain uncertain. Extremism survives as the foremost existential threat to Pakistan, requiring consistent long-term measures rather than tactical deals alone.
The Impact of Climate Change
Extreme weather events in Pakistan highlight climate vulnerability. Floods and heatwaves in 2022 followed similar disasters in 2010 and 2015 on a compressed timeline. Such calamities destroy livelihoods and push millions into poverty each time.
Strengthening resilience is thus an urgent priority. Upgrading dams and drainage capacity, improving forecast systems, enhancing social safety nets and diversifying agriculture are vital along with climate-proofing infrastructure. Effective regulation and restoration of natural buffers like forests can mitigate future climate risks.
Experience from previous emergencies provides templates for disaster management and rehabilitation frameworks. But prevention through climate adaptation and mitigation policies needs leadership backing along with community participation. Resolving governance shortcomings in crisis response is also essential.
Conclusion: Will the Election Outcome Affect India-Pakistan Dynamics?
Pakistan remains locked in a tense rivalry with neighbouring India, even as both countries face pressing domestic issues from poverty to governance deficits. The 2024 elections are hence not just critical for Pakistan’s internal stability, but also broader South Asian geopolitics.
A dysfunctional Pakistan heightens regional volatility. Election irregularities or a confrontational government in Islamabad would inhibit reconciliation attempts with New Delhi. It may even spur escalatory rhetoric for nationalist diversionary purposes. In contrast, mature policymaking focused on institutional reform and economic revival would shrink space for cross-border tensions.
Democratic continuity and strengthening governance in Pakistan—critical to improving internal security, extremism and investor confidence—also bears positively on India ties. Bilateral progress enables breakthroughs in trade, counterterrorism coordination and reducing defence costs. Plus, averting external crises allows Pakistan to concentrate resources on domestic needs.
In effect, Pakistan’s ability to resolve its monumental economic and political challenges through reformist leadership and people-centric policies would ease historical rivalry with India. But failure on internal fronts risks greater regional instability and enmity—limiting progress for both countries beset by poverty, inequality and climate risks. The 2024 election is thus the first test of Pakistan’s path ahead, with significant implications across borders.
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