Political parties play a pivotal role in the functioning of modern democracies, serving as vehicles for citizens’ representation, policy formulation, and governance. However, in recent decades, many established political parties across the globe have witnessed a decline in their influence and support base. This phenomenon can be attributed to a complex interplay of various institutional, societal, and external factors that collectively shape the destiny of political parties within a democratic framework.
Institutional Factors: The Framework of Governance
A. Regime Type and Democratic Consolidation
The nature of a country’s political regime significantly impacts the landscape in which political parties operate. Well-established liberal democracies with robust checks and balances, such as the United States, United Kingdom, and several Western European nations, provide a more conducive environment for multiple parties to compete for power and represent diverse interests.
Conversely, authoritarian regimes or hybrid systems that restrict genuine democratic competition pose significant challenges for opposition parties to thrive. In such contexts, the ruling party often wields excessive control, limiting the space for dissent and alternative voices, ultimately undermining the principles of democratic pluralism.
B. Concentration of Power and Accountability
Excessive concentration of power within a single party or government can breed corruption, nepotism, and a lack of accountability, ultimately eroding public trust and support. When power becomes overly centralised, it can lead to the curtailment of civil liberties, suppression of dissent, and alienation of large sections of the population.
The Indian National Congress (INC) faced such challenges during periods of its dominance, particularly under the leadership of Indira Gandhi. Imposing the Emergency in 1975-1977, suspension of civil liberties, and allegations of nepotism and corruption contributed to a temporary decline in the party’s popularity and support base.
C. Historical Legacy and Perception
A party’s historical legacy can be a double-edged sword. While a proud legacy as a freedom movement or a force for positive change can garner respect, it can also become a burden if the party is perceived as being out of touch with contemporary realities or steeped in outdated ideologies.
For instance, the INC’s association with the freedom struggle against British colonial rule is a source of pride, but it has also led to perceptions of the party being too entrenched in the past and unable to adapt effectively to modern challenges. Similarly, its association with the Emergency period has left a lasting negative perception among certain sections of society.
Societal Factors: Bridging Divides and Representing Diversity
A. Historical Background and Social Cleavages
The historical background of a nation and deep-rooted social cleavages along ethnic, religious, linguistic, or economic lines can significantly influence the fortunes of political parties. Parties that fail to bridge these divides or cater to diverse interests may face fragmentation and a loss of voter confidence.
In India, the INC has grappled with the challenge of maintaining a broad-based support across various social divides. Allegations of catering more to specific interest groups, being perceived as elitist, or failing to adequately represent minority communities have contributed to the erosion of its support base.
B. Rise of Identity Politics and Populism
The rise of identity politics and populist movements has posed a significant challenge to traditional political parties in many democracies. Populist leaders and parties often tap into public discontent, amplify divisive narratives, and capitalise on economic insecurities or feelings of disenfranchisement among certain sections of society.
The success of Donald Trump’s “America First” populist movement in the United States and the rise of populist parties like the National Rally in France, Alternative for Germany, and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands exemplify this trend. These parties have gained significant ground by mobilising disaffected voters disillusioned with mainstream politics and capitalising on issues like immigration and economic insecurity. In India, the BJP has gained phenomenal success by resorting to identity politics. It has crafted a narrative of Hindu victimhood that has resonated with a sizeable chunk of Indians. By cleverly merging religion with patriotism, the BJP has become the most powerful political entity in India.
C. Declining Voter Turnout and Disillusionment
Low voter turnout and declining public participation in the democratic process can indicate a broader disillusionment with mainstream political parties and their ability to effectively address the concerns of the electorate. This phenomenon has been observed in various democracies, including the United States, where voter turnout had been declining in previous elections before rebounding in 2020.
In the United Kingdom, voter turnout in general elections has been steadily declining since the 1990s, reflecting a growing disconnect between the public and the traditional political establishment. Such trends can further erode the credibility and legitimacy of political parties, exacerbating the cycle of disillusionment and undermining the principles of representative democracy.
Mediating Variables: The Dynamics of Power and Governance
A. Party System and Fragmentation
The structure and stability of a country’s party system play a crucial role in shaping the fortunes of individual political parties. Fragmented party systems, characterised by many small parties and frequent shifts in alliances, can hinder effective governance and undermine the credibility of individual parties.
Italy and Spain serve as examples of how traditional two-party dominance has given way to a more fragmented and dynamic party system. In Italy, the rise of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League (Lega) has challenged the established centre-left and gunter-rigged coalitions. Similarly, in Spain, the emergence of Podemos and Ciudadanos has disrupted the traditional dominance of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and the People’s Party (PP). These changes reflect the evolving dynamics of European politics, where stability and coalition-building remain ongoing challenges. Podemos and Ciudadanos are two relatively new political parties that have emerged in Spain and disrupted the traditional two-party dominance of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and the People’s Party (PP).
Podemos (meaning “We Can”) disrupted the status quo. Podemos, a left-wing party, emerged advocating for social justice and anti-austerity measures.
Ciudadanos, also known as Citizens, is a liberal political party in Spain. It was founded in Catalonia in 2006, and initially emerged with a strong opposition to Catalan independence and Catalan nationalism. Its early motto was: “Catalonia is my homeland, Spain is my country, and Europe is our future.” Over time, it has been described as post-nationalist and has advocated for a populist Spanish nationalist ideology. Ideologically, Ciudadanos positions itself as progressive, secular, constitutional, European federalist, and post-nationalist. It rejects the autonomous communities’ right to self-determination. It started off as a left-of-centre party with social democratic and progressive liberal stances. Later, it shifted closer to the political centre, removing any mention of social democracy from its platform in February 2017.
The rise of these new parties has contributed to a multi-party system in Spain and the need for coalition governments, as no single party has commanded a majority in recent elections.
B. Coalition Dynamics and Governance Challenges
In many democracies, the formation of coalition governments has become increasingly common, often causing compromises and power-sharing arrangements among diverse and sometimes conflicting interests. While these coalitions can provide stability during their tenures, they can also lead to perceptions of policy paralysis, ineffective decision-making, and an inability to project a consistent and cohesive agenda.
The Indian National Congress (INC) has been part of several coalition governments at the centre, such as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) from 2004 to 2014. While these coalitions provided stability, the compromises and power-sharing arrangements often led to perceptions of policy inaction and ineffective governance, ultimately denting the party’s credibility and support base. However, unlike the two editions of UPA, the NDA has been quite stable during the two terms so far. This is because the BJP has been in the majority on its own, and its allies cannot destabilise the government no matter what their grievances may be.
C. Governance Record and Public Trust
A party’s governance record and its ability to deliver on promises and address the concerns of the electorate are critical factors that shape its political fortunes. Allegations of corruption, policy failures, or a perceived inability to provide effective and accountable governance can significantly erode public trust and support.
The short-lived tenure of the INC-led UPA-II government from 2009 to 2014, marred by corruption scandals and policy inaction, significantly dented the party’s image as an effective governing force. Similarly, the perceived mishandling of crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic by certain governments, has further undermined public trust in democratic institutions and the ability of political parties to respond effectively to pressing challenges.
External Factors: The Influence of Global Dynamics
A. Foreign Disinformation and Influence Campaigns
In the age of digital media and interconnectivity, concerns have arisen about the potential spread of disinformation and misinformation campaigns by foreign actors, particularly through social media platforms. While these campaigns may not directly target specific political parties, the dissemination of false or misleading information might influence public opinion and voter behaviour, indirectly impacting the fortunes of various political forces.
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has engaged in disinformation campaigns to undermine Western democracies. Putin aims to weaken Western unity, alter policies (e.g., economic sanctions), and revive Russia’s global role. Russian disinformation targets politicians and democratic institutions, including elections and independent media.
The United States has a long history of interfering in the political affairs of other nations, often through covert operations aimed at influencing or overthrowing foreign governments. One notable example is the 1951 Rawalpindi conspiracy in Pakistan, led by Maj. Gen. Akbar Khan, left-wing activists, and sympathetic officers, which aimed to overthrow the government of Pakistan’s first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan.
However, Pakistan is far from the only victim of American interference. Between 1946 and 2000, the U.S. performed at least 81 overt and covert interventions in foreign elections. This includes the 1953 Iranian coup d’état, where the U.S. and the UK orchestrated the overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, the 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion targeting Cuba, and support for the removal of Indonesian President Sukarno by General Suharto. The U.S. has also influenced national elections in countries such as Italy, the Philippines, Japan, Lebanon, and Russia.
More recently, leaked documents suggest U.S. involvement in the 2022 no-confidence motion against former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, potentially because of his neutral stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These instances highlight the extent of American interference in shaping the political landscapes of various nations around the world.
B. Allegations of Foreign Funding
Allegations of foreign funding being received by political parties from external sources or non-resident citizens have been a recurring issue in many democracies. However, these allegations are often unsubstantiated, and parties typically assert that they follow legal and regulatory frameworks for funding. Such allegations can contribute to public skepticism and erosion of trust in the political process.
C. Geopolitical Considerations and Narratives
A country’s foreign relations and geopolitical alignments with various nations and blocs can influence domestic perceptions and narratives surrounding political parties and their policies. For instance, a party’s stance on issues such as trade agreements, military alliances, or diplomatic relations can shape public opinion and impact its support base, particularly among sections of the electorate with strong views on these matters.
Safeguarding Democracy: Strengthening Institutions and Fostering Accountability
The complex interplay of factors contributing to the decline of political parties highlights the need for concerted efforts to safeguard democratic institutions, promote inclusive governance, and foster accountability. Governments, civil society organisations, and citizens must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these challenges.
Strengthening the independence and impartiality of democratic institutions, such as electoral bodies, judiciary, and media, is crucial to ensuring transparency and upholding the integrity of the political process. Promoting civic education and fostering a culture of critical thinking and informed decision-making can empower citizens to make informed choices and hold political parties accountable.
Political parties themselves must embrace reform and renewal, prioritising internal democracy, transparency, and responsiveness to the evolving needs and concerns of the electorate. Embracing inclusive policies, bridging social divides, and addressing issues of economic inequality and disenfranchisement can help restore public trust and revitalise the principles of representative democracy.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the health and vibrancy of political parties are intrinsically linked to the broader state of democracy within a nation. By addressing the complex challenges posed by institutional, societal, and external factors, and fostering a culture of democratic accountability and responsiveness, societies can safeguard the integrity of the political process and ensure that political parties remain effective vehicles for citizens’ representation and governance.
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