The political landscape of India is in a state of flux as the nation goes through one of the most transformative elections in its history. At the forefront of this electoral battle are two formidable contenders: the ruling BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA (Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance) Alliance. While the BJP has enjoyed significant success in recent years, securing a thumping majority in the 2019 general elections, the ongoing polls present a fresh set of challenges for the party. The INDIA Alliance, comprising several major opposition parties, is leaving no stone unturned in its bid to dethrone the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As the nation goes through this high-stakes political contest, it is imperative to analyse the factors that could shape the outcome and determine the future trajectory of Indian politics.
BJP’s Overconfidence, Hubris, and Complacency
The BJP’s meteoric rise to power in 2014 and its subsequent landslide victory in the 2019 general elections have solidified its position as the dominant political force in India. Overconfidence has seeped into its ranks. The party’s convincing performance in several state elections since then has only reinforced this sense of invincibility. However, such overconfidence can breed complacency, leading to a disconnect between the party leadership and the electorate. The BJP must recognise that electoral victories are not guaranteed and that it must continuously earn the trust and support of the people through effective governance and responsive leadership.
Hubris, or excessive pride, is another potential stumbling block for the BJP. The party’s tendency to take credit for every success while deflecting blame for failures could alienate swing voters and erode its support base. A humble and accountable leadership is essential to maintaining the trust and confidence of the electorate.
There have been rebellions and dissent in the BJP over giving tickets to outsiders, ignoring the claims of those who have been lifelong members of the party.
The INDIA Alliance Has Become a Formidable Threat
As the BJP grapples with internal challenges, the INDIA Alliance emerges as a formidable adversary, poised to wrest power from the ruling dispensation. Comprising several major opposition parties with diverse ideologies and regional aspirations, the alliance has launched an aggressive campaign to spotlight the perceived failures of the BJP-led government and position itself as a viable alternative.
The INDIA Alliance’s critique of the BJP’s economic policies, particularly its handling of issues such as unemployment, inflation, and income inequality, resonates with the electorate. By capitalising on the discontent and frustration of various segments of society, including farmers and youth, the alliance has successfully tapped into the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment.
The INDIA Alliance’s emphasis on unity and collective strength has enabled it to present a credible alternative to the BJP-led NDA. By rallying leaders from disparate parties and advocating for a common minimum program, the alliance seeks to transcend ideological divergences and forge a united front against the ruling dispensation.
However, the INDIA Alliance confronts its own set of challenges. The coalition’s heterogeneous composition, comprising parties with distinct regional aspirations and ideological stances, threatens to sow discord and internal strife. The alliance must articulate a cohesive national agenda and instil confidence among the electorate to emerge as a credible alternative to the BJP.
The Battleground Language: Manifestos and Agendas
I have no intention of enumerating the levels to which BJP’s star campaigners have fallen in their knee-jerk reaction to the perceived voting trends. Instead, I am attempting to understand what the common would weigh after ten years of BJP’s rule at the centre. If we go by what various analysts are saying, then the voter turnout has fallen compared to the 2019 elections, which goes against BJP’s interests. They see this trend as an anti-incumbency vote in favour of the INDIA alliance. But common wisdom tells us that if the voters want to remove the incumbent party from power, they would turn out in larger than usual numbers to support the opposition. Is this happening? Nobody has answered this question. They are content with the formula “low voter turnout equals BJP’s defeat.”
Now let us have a look at how the two combatants, NDA and INDIA, have approached the elections.
BJP’s Sankalp Patra: Continuity as Alibi for Peddling the Same Old Stuff
The BJP, riding on the wave of its previous electoral successes, has presented its “Sankalp Patra”, which aims to build upon the party’s existing policies and initiatives. It has offered nothing new or game-changing.
BJP’s economic agenda repeats the familiar intent of making India the third-largest economy in the world. To achieve this aim, it has pledged to maintain low inflation rates and create a stable and conducive environment for businesses and citizens alike. Yet, it has done nothing notable in ensuring peace, stability and harmony in the society. The venomous divisive propaganda against minorities continues with the same brazenness as before.
The party’s manifesto emphasises policies and initiatives designed to boost job prospects across various sectors, ranging from manufacturing to services. But is not clear how this would be achieved.
One of the key pillars of the BJP’s economic agenda is the promotion of scientific research and technological advancements. The party has announced plans to establish an Anusandhan Fund with a staggering investment of ₹1 lakh crore. The purpose is to drive innovation and foster an environment conducive to innovative research and development.
The BJP has also promised to simplify state-level regulations and collaborate with state governments to reduce the compliance burden on small traders and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). This move is expected to enhance the ease of doing business and create a more favourable environment for entrepreneurship and economic growth at the grassroots level. These should have been done by now. Ten years in power were long enough for this.
If the BJP’s economic agenda is a hotchpotch of outdated ideas packed in old containers, its political agenda seems to have evaporated in thin air. Are they still in favour of establishing the Hindu Rashtra? The ground-level acolytes keep stressing the intent to change the Constitution of India. Secularism is still treated as a dirty word. But at the national level, Modi swears by Ambedkar’s constitution. Such lies do not fool anybody but only confuse the voter.
The INC’s Nyay Patra: New & Pathbreaking but is it Implementable?
The Congress party has presented a distinct economic vision through its “Nyay Patra” (Justice Document), with a strong emphasis on social welfare measures and inclusive development. One of the party’s key promises is to conduct a nationwide Socio-Economic and Caste Census, providing a comprehensive understanding of India’s diverse population and their specific needs. This initiative is aimed at informing and shaping targeted policies to address the unique challenges faced by different segments of society.
The Congress has also pledged to raise the reservation cap beyond the current 50% limit for Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The party has proposed a 10% quota in jobs and educational institutions for economically weaker sections across all castes and communities.
Recognising the importance of the agricultural sector and the plight of farmers, the Congress has promised to provide a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Prices (MSP). This move aims to safeguard the interests of farmers and ensure fair compensation for their produce, potentially contributing to rural economic growth and stability.
To address the pressing issue of unemployment among the youth, the Congress plans to introduce the “Right to Apprenticeship Act.” This legislation would ensure that every diploma holder or graduate below the age of 25 receives a one-year apprenticeship, enhancing their employability and facilitating a smoother transition into the workforce.
In a bold move to uplift the standard of living for workers, the Congress has proposed a national minimum wage of ₹400 per day. This initiative aims to boost consumer spending and stimulate economic activity by providing a decent income for the labour force.
The party’s “Mahalakshmi Scheme” promises to provide ₹1 lakh per year to every economically disadvantaged Indian family. This ambitious welfare measure aims to ease poverty and empower underprivileged households, potentially leading to increased economic participation and growth from the grassroots level. Here, it is important to state that while the BJP too claims to have empowered the women of India, the Congress has a clearer vision on the issue.
The Indian National Congress (INC) has made women’s empowerment and gender equality a cornerstone of its Nyay Patra manifesto for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Pledging to remove discrimination against women and advance their rights, the party has outlined a comprehensive set of provisions aimed at promoting gender justice and creating an enabling environment for women’s progress. Notably, the INC promises to immediately implement the long-standing demand for one-third reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies, ensuring greater representation and participation in decision-making processes.
The party aims to reserve 50% of central government jobs for women starting in 2025, a bold and unprecedented move to address gender imbalances in employment and provide equal opportunities. Recognising the persistent gender biases enshrined in laws, the Congress vows to scrutinise and amend legislation to eliminate discrimination and enforce the principle of “Same Work, Same Wages,” ensuring fair and equitable treatment of women in the workforce. The party proposes to double the contribution to the pay of frontline health workers, acknowledging the invaluable role played by women in the healthcare sector.
Enhancing women’s economic empowerment is also a key focus, with plans to enhance credit access, enabling women to pursue entrepreneurial ventures and achieve financial independence. The Congress aims to implement various measures to expand women’s participation in the workforce, breaking down barriers and fostering an inclusive and supportive environment for their professional growth and development.
So, while the BJP’s economic agenda focuses on continuity and building upon its existing successes, the Congress’s manifesto presents a more radical approach, emphasising social welfare measures, inclusive policies, and addressing the needs of marginalised sections of society.
However, both parties share common ground on certain issues, such as promoting infrastructure development, supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and fostering entrepreneurship and innovation.
Nobody Can Take the Voter for a Ride or for Granted
As the election campaign progresses, the economic promises made by the BJP and the Congress will be subject to intense scrutiny and debate. Voters will weigh these promises' feasibility, implementation strategies, and potential impact on their lives and the nation’s overall economic trajectory.
One of the key considerations for voters will be the parties’ track records and their ability to deliver on their promises. The BJP’s incumbency and its achievements during its previous tenure, such as initiatives like “Make in India” and “Digital India,” will be scrutinised. Conversely, the Congress will need to convince voters of its ability to implement its ambitious welfare schemes effectively and efficiently.
Another crucial factor influencing voter decisions will be the parties’ approaches to addressing pressing economic challenges, such as unemployment, income inequality, and the impact of globalisation on various sectors.
The BJP’s focus on promoting domestic manufacturing, attracting foreign investment, and fostering an environment conducive to business growth may resonate with those seeking economic stability and job opportunities. The Congress’s emphasis on social welfare, inclusive growth, and addressing the needs of marginalised communities may appeal to those seeking a fairer distribution of resources and opportunities.
The parties’ stances on issues such as environmental protection, sustainable development, and labour rights will play a significant role in shaping voter preferences among the youth and environmentally conscious segments of the population.
It is important to note that implementing these economic promises will not solely rely on the winning party’s efforts but will also depend on effective governance, policy execution, and collaboration with various stakeholders, including state governments, industry bodies, and civil society organisations. The global economic landscape and geopolitical factors may influence the feasibility and success of certain economic policies, highlighting the need for adaptability and pragmatism in governance.
While the Congress positions itself as the champion of inclusive development and social justice, the BJP needs to return to its claims of being the custodian of economic growth and stability.
BJP’s communal agenda has significant support among the voters. Complacency, borne out of nearly a decade in power at the centre, poses a significant threat to the BJP’s prospects in 2024. The party should have guarded against taking its support base for granted and failing to address emerging challenges and changing voter priorities. The electorate demands proactive governance and tangible results.
While assessing their respective track records, the voters will weigh the merits and drawbacks of each party’s economic vision and priorities for the nation’s future. The outcome of this high-stakes political contest will not only determine the trajectory of India’s economic policies but also have far-reaching implications for the country’s development, global standing, and the well-being of its citizens.
Today’s voter does not like to be taken for a ride.
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