Sunday, September 22, 2024

India's Secret Weapon: The 12,000 km Missile That Could Change Everything

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The missile systems of India continue to play a vital role in its national defence infrastructure. These provide extensive protection across land, sea, and air domains. Integrating these systems with conventional forces enables India to project power and deter adversaries. Yet, whether missiles can entirely substitute combat aircraft in India’s aerospace demands a detailed examination. We will study India’s missile systems and their impact on national defence, including how they work with manned aircraft. Missiles are crucial for India’s defence but can’t replace combat aircraft.

Land-Based Defense Systems

India has invested significantly in land-based missile systems, focusing on both offensive and defensive capabilities.

Ballistic Missiles

India’s land-based nuclear deterrence relies on its ballistic missile arsenal, particularly the Agni series. Over the years, the Agni series evolved.

1. Agni-I to Agni-V missiles, with ranges from 700 km (Agni-I) to over 5,000 km (Agni-V), are designed for delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads. With the Agni missiles, India can reach even distant adversaries during an attack.

2. The Agni-P is a canistered missile introduced in 2021 with a range of 1,000-2,000 km. It’s more manoeuvrable and has a quicker response time than earlier Agni variants.

3. Agni-VI, India’s first ICBM, is being developed with a range of over 8,000 km. The Agni-VI missile is rumoured to be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), which will enhance India’s strategic deterrence capabilities. The missile is said to include advanced technologies for accuracy and survivability. There are speculations that Agni-VI will have a range of 12,000 km.

These fresh additions to the Agni series possess the capability to hit targets at various distances.

Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs)

India’s surface-to-air missiles provide a robust defence against enemy aircraft and missiles.

1. The Akash system intercepts aerial threats within a 30 km range, enhancing India’s ground defence. Recent developments include the improved Akash-NG with enhanced range and accuracy.

2. The Barak-8, jointly developed with Israel, has a range of up to 100 km and enhances India’s air defence. It has been integrated into land and naval platforms.

3. S-400: India has received deliveries of the Russian S-400 Triumf air defence system. It can engage targets at ranges up to 400 km. This system enables India to safeguard itself against a range of airborne threats. These include planes, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems

India’s anti-ballistic missile (ABM) program has made significant strides:

1. The Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) is designed for exo-atmospheric interception of ballistic missiles at altitudes up to 150 km. In other words, this system intercepts incoming missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere

2. The Advanced Air Defence (AAD) is capable of endo-atmospheric interception. The endo-atmospheric missile remains within the earth’s atmosphere, i.e., at an altitude below 100 kilometres

3. In Phase II Development India is improving its interceptors to build a multi-layered missile defence shield.

These systems have undergone successful testing, and aim to shield major cities from missile attacks. India’s ABM systems are making progress towards a complete national missile defence network.

Sea-Based Defense Systems

India’s sea-based missile capabilities, like the Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and anti-ship missiles, enhance its maritime defence. This system has advanced significantly.

1. The K-15 Sagarika has a range of 750 km. This SLBM forms the initial backbone of India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent.

2. The K-4 SLBM has a range of over 3,500 km. It gives India substantial reach from underwater platforms.

3. India is now developing the K-5 and K-6 longer-range SLBMs. The K-6 is expected to have a range of up to 6,000 km, further enhancing the country’s second-strike capability.

The indigenous Arihant-class nuclear-powered submarines carry these SLBMs. Additional submarines of the same type are being manufactured.

Anti-Ship Missiles

The BrahMos missile system continues to be a cornerstone of India’s maritime strike capability:

The BrahMos has been developed jointly with Russia. It remains one of the fastest cruise missiles in the world, capable of travelling at speeds up to Mach 3.

2. The BrahMos-ER is an extended-range version with a reach of over 400 km., which has been successfully tested.

3. The BrahMos-II is a hypersonic version of the missile. It is under development, with speeds expected to reach Mach 7-8.

These sea-based missile systems contribute significantly to India’s overall defence posture, especially in ensuring a credible nuclear triad and deterring potential naval threats.

Air-Based Defense Systems

India’s air-based missile systems defend its airspace and include air-to-air and air-launched cruise missiles.

Air-to-Air Missiles

1. The Astra is a beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile. It has a range of up to 100 km. An extended-range version, Astra Mk-II, is under development with an expected range of over 150 km.

2. India has acquired MICA missiles from France for use on its Rafale fighter jets, enhancing its air-to-air combat capabilities.

3. The R-77 and R-27 are Russian missiles, which enhance India’s Su-30MKI fleet with long-range air-to-air capabilities.

Air-Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCMs)

1. The BrahMos-A is an air-launched variant of the BrahMos missile. It has been successfully integrated with the Su-30MKI fighter. It gives India the capability to strike high-value targets from a safe distance.

2. The Rafale fighters have SCALP cruise missiles that can hit land targets from far away. It is also known as the Storm Shadow. It is a long-range, air-launched, stand-off attack missile developed jointly by France and the UK.

These air systems are crucial for India’s air defence, as they can intercept and neutralize airborne threats, offering flexibility and extended reach.

Missiles vs. Combat Aircraft

India’s missile systems have improved. But can they replace combat aircraft in defending the country’s airspace? The answer remains no because:

1. Combat aircraft are more versatile than missiles. These fighters excel in air superiority, ground attack, support, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare. Missiles are designed for specific purposes only.

2. Combat aircraft have an unmatched ability to redeploy in response to changing battlefield conditions. Fighters can cover extensive areas, attack multiple targets, and return for rearmament and refuelling. Launched missiles cannot be recalled or reassigned.

3. Fighter jet pilots make real-time decisions based on evolving tactics. Missile systems are advancing with AI and improved guidance, but lack the adaptability and situational awareness of human pilots.

4. Air superiority demands constant aerial presence with combat aircraft. For example, the S-400 missiles have area denial capabilities but can’t establish air superiority like fighter aircraft.

5. Modern combat aircraft can strike moving or emerging targets with advanced sensors and precision-guided munitions. Manned aircraft have a unique capability to loiter in contested airspace, gather intelligence, and strike based on real-time data.

6. Both missiles and combat aircraft are advancing. Advances in hypersonic and stealth missile technology are accompanied by improvements in fighter aircraft design, stealth technology, and networked warfare capabilities. Fifth and sixth-generation fighters highlight the importance of manned aircraft in modern warfare.

7. Despite their cost, advanced missile systems are often a cost-effective solution for specific missions. Combat aircraft’s reusability and multi-mission capability make them cost-effective for day-to-day operations and deterrence.

8. Combat aircraft are essential in international military exercises and cooperative missions, unmatched by missiles. Aircraft deployment offers diplomatic advantages that missile systems lack.

Integration of Missile Systems and Combat Aircraft

India’s aerospace defence relies on integrating missile systems and combat aircraft.

It is integrating its sensor and weapon systems into a cohesive network. This improves coordination between missile batteries and combat aircraft, enhancing capabilities.

India is developing Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles or UCAVs like the Ghatak that blur the line between missiles and aircraft. These systems could bridge the gap between aircraft and missiles.

The Cooperative Engagement Capability or CEC concept enables sensor data sharing between platforms. This enhances the defensive network’s effectiveness.

4. India is developing a Multi-Layered Integrated Air Defense system. It combines different missile systems and combat aircraft to protect against aerial threats.

India’s missile systems offer a strong defence against various threats. India’s commitment to a strong deterrent is demonstrated by the development of systems like Agni-VI ICBM, advanced SLBMs, and BrahMos-II hypersonic missiles. These systems improve India’s defence capabilities and contribute to its strategic deterrence.

Geostrategic Implications of India’s Long-Range ICBM Development

Like every country, India is within its rights to develop effective deterrents against hostile neighbours like China and Pakistan. There is also a need for keeping the fast-evolving global geostrategic scenarios beyond our neighbourhood. In this context, the development of ICBMs with a 12,000 km range would be wholly justified. The far-reaching geostrategic implications need to be addressed. Here’s a potential consequence breakdown.

1. Global Power Projection

An ICBM with a 12,000 km range would enable India to target anywhere on Earth, except for some areas in South America and Antarctica. This capability would enhance India’s global military power.

It could bring India closer to nuclear parity with the US, Russia, and China, altering global power dynamics.

2. Regional Balance of Power

These ICBMs would cover China and beyond, providing India with a credible deterrent. This could influence the Sino-Indian strategic equilibrium.

Short-range missiles cover Pakistan, but long-range ICBMs complicate strategic calculations and escalate the arms race in South Asia.

3. Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy

India may reconsider its ‘No First Use’ nuclear policy because of long-range ICBMs being linked to first-strike capabilities.

India’s long-range missiles could impact its nuclear force posture, leading to changes in alert levels and command systems.

4. Diplomatic and Economic Consequences

Developing long-range ICBMs could invite international scrutiny and impact India’s relationships with Western powers. Let us be clear, no great power would ever tolerate a challenge to their hegemony. So, the concerned countries may impose economic sanctions or technology transfer restrictions because of nuclear proliferation concerns. This had happened before, when India had conducted its first and second nuclear tests.

India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and other non-proliferation regimes could be affected.

5. Arms Control and Disarmament

The development may be considered a setback to global disarmament efforts. India’s long-range ICBM development could impact arms control talks among major powers.

6. Technological and Economic Implications

It could affect the India-US strategic partnership, causing proliferation concerns in Washington. Russia’s historical role in supporting India’s missile program may contribute to stronger strategic ties between the two countries.

Smaller nations might seek security guarantees from larger powers, changing regional alliances.

7. Regional and Global Security Dynamics

Long-range ICBMs could either enhance strategic stability through stronger deterrence or decrease it by creating first-strike incentives during crises.

It could trigger a new arms race, not just in South Asia but also involving other powers concerned about India’s expanded reach.

8. Strategic Stability

On the positive side, the development of advanced missiles can strengthen India’s aerospace and defence sectors. Technologies developed for ICBMs could have civilian applications, thus benefiting India’s space program.

Conclusion

To conclude, the development of 12,000 km range ICBMs by India would alter the global strategic balance. It would enhance India’s strategic deterrence and global standing and create challenges in international relations, arms control, and regional stability. The implications depend on India’s management of its capabilities and the response of other powers.





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