Does Trump’s second term resembles a bull in a china shop? His second tenure has seen a series of rapid executive actions and contentious decisions – both at home and abroad. His team had done their homework in advance. Without delay, he issued executive orders that froze federal spending, fired independent inspectors general, and issued many pardons. His actions have triggered considerable disapproval and bewilderment, primarily from Democrats. Trump is hardly facing a pushback from the Republican-dominated Congress. He is apparently quite enthusiastic about playing the role of The Great Disrupter with great enthusiasm.
In his second term, Trump is redefining the traditional political spectrum. His populist message, which combines nationalism and economic intervention, has reverberated globally. His government’s focus on powerful nations and leaders may signal a significant change in global politics. His policies may revolutionize America’s domestic conservatism by emphasising cultural battles and anti-globalist beliefs.
Domestic Policies
Trump’s actions within the US have created a sharp divide in the public opinion. He reinstated the federal death penalty, overturning his predecessor’s halt on capital punishment. This has renewed ethics-related discussions on criminal justice. He has also pardoned around 1,500 people linked to the January 6th Capitol riots. Political opponents are furious, accusing him of undermining the foundations of democracy.
Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants is controversial. This is already facing legal challenges. A federal judge halted the order calling Trump’s action unconstitutional. Legal analysts predict a lengthy court fight on this issue, which may go all the way to the Supreme Court.
Trump has rescinded Biden-era policies on immigration, climate, and racial equity. He is continuing with his first term’s declaration of national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border. The goal is faster construction of the border wall and more stringent enforcement of anti-illegal immigration laws. He stopped accepting refugees, citing national security, and labelled some drug cartels as terrorists. The administration’s orders for firing FBI agents are already being resisted from within the agency. In California, farm workers are failing to show up for work.
Foreign Policy
Donald Trump’s seismic political comeback threatens to rewrite the global rulebook. He is on track to overturn decades of conventions governing diplomacy, economics, and geopolitics. He prefers deal-making diplomacy, which is already showing adverse effects on global cooperation. His actions might break up the current power system, speeding up a shift to a more fragmented world order. His ambitions of keeping the United States as the sole superpower may backfire. His focus on “America First” and bilateral agreements may undermine global organizations like the UN and WTO. A multipolar world is inevitable as NATO and G7 weaken. This will open up the field for China, Russia, and India to become strong power centres in their own right.
Trump has once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, claiming the latter as harmful to the U.S. economy. The Biden administration had rejoined the PCA earlier. This funny revolving door scenario is captivating global attention. The decline in his support for global climate action reflects a shift toward national economic priorities. The decision is bound to generate a backlash from those who favour collaboration in fighting climate change.
USA-Russia-Ukraine Relations
Trump is likely to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy toward Russia, which could heighten strategic friction. Sanctions by his administration may escalate geopolitical conflicts, potentially leading to retaliatory economic and military measures from Moscow. Already, Europe is getting restless over reduced access to natural gas from Russia, further straining energy security and increasing costs for consumers. These actions are also harming Russia’s financial system, with the ruble facing continued pressure and economic stagnation looming. This approach could worsen US-Russia relations, potentially fuelling a new Cold Warlike standoff.
Trump is likely to favour short-term U.S. benefits over steadfast ideology, prioritizing transactional diplomacy. His administration might offer conditional support to Ukraine, which could prove unreliable in guaranteeing its sovereignty. He has previously criticized the scale of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and may insist on Europe taking greater responsibility. Linking aid to political or economic demands could weaken long-term support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, emboldening Putin. This erratic policy undermines Western alliances and the anti-Russia strategy, creating divisions within NATO. Furthermore, a weakened U.S. stance may encourage Russia to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, worsening regional instability and increasing global security risks.
USA-China-Taiwan-Southeast Asia Relations
The Trump administration might adopt assertive trade strategies. His first term prioritized tariffs on Chinese goods to counter perceived unfair trade practices. Higher tariffs on technology and manufacturing are a possibility under the Trump administration. Trump may offer Taiwan material backing, presenting it as a bulwark against Chinese expansion. This, even though Trump has cooled down anti-China rhetoric and has made certain reconciliatory gestures. China may not take Trump’s gestures seriously, given his pre-election rhetoric and the USA’s consistent efforts to contain China’s expanding global footprint from Panama to Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
There is a certain inevitability regarding a confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region between the present superpower and the wannabe. This has the potential to disrupt Southeast Asia’s economy and politics. Strong actions from the U.S. against China may lead to the breakdown of current supply chains. Southeast Asian nations might have to choose alliances, disrupting ASEAN’s economic objectives. It would be a global disaster if Taiwan became another Ukraine.
In recent developments, Trump has threatened higher tariffs on imports from BRICS nations, including India, which could further strain global trade relations. Additionally, the U.S. is set to impose new tariffs on China, which is its major trading partner. This aggressive stance may lead to increased economic tensions and further complicate international trade dynamics. The ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia continues to shape the region’s strategic landscape, with both powers vying for influence. As the situation evolves, the potential for economic and political disruptions remains high, making it crucial for Southeast Asian nations to navigate these challenges carefully.
Transatlantic Relations
New challenges, particularly those concerning NATO and overall security, may affect transatlantic relations. Trump’s pressure on Europe to increase military spending could harm NATO’s collective defence. NATO’s increased military spending highlights growing doubts about US alliance commitment, stemming from Trump’s transactional foreign policy. This could encourage European nations to bolster their strategic independence through initiatives like PESCO and the European Defence Fund, reshaping the power dynamics within the alliance. PESCO stands for Permanent Structured Cooperation, a policy framework for defence and security cooperation among EU member states.
Economic and climate concerns could threaten the strength of transatlantic bonds. The possibility of trade conflicts may arise again, involving digital services taxes, car tariffs, and farming regulations. The U.S. and Europe’s differing environmental ambitions were evident when Trump exited the Paris Agreement. Trump’s consistent dismissal of climate diplomacy could impede collaborative efforts to tackle global issues, such as energy transitions and technological advancements.
Trump’s comments about purchasing Greenland and annexing Canada have created tensions. Denmark’s Prime Minister stated that Greenland is off the market and underlined that its sovereignty is absolute. While Nordic countries are contemplating a joint front against Trump’s hegemonic tendencies, France is preparing to send troops to defend Greenland.
North American neighbour Canada has rejected Trump’s annexation remarks as disruptive. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has affirmed that Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state is not a possibility. Trump’s emphasis on renegotiating trade deals and safeguarding American industries might rekindle tensions with Canada, especially concerning dairy tariffs and energy exports. In fact, Canada which supplies 60% of the USA’s crude oil needs is contemplating shifting to other markets where it hopes to get more lucrative deals. Is a trade war on the cards? A possibility, since Mexico too is opposing Trump’s domineering policies.
USA-Latin America Relations
Trump is implementing stricter immigration measures, escalating tensions across the Americas. Increasing border security by adding more barriers and involving the military would be a key part of U.S. immigration policy. These policies, combined with harsh deportation tactics and stricter asylum rules, may worsen socio-economic problems in Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, which rely on remittances. The resurfacing of Trump’s threats to use tariffs against Mexico might strain their relationship. Unrest might escalate in the region, fuelling hostility and triggering diplomatic tensions.
Panama has expressed defiance against Trump’s aggressive policies. Panama’s rejection of Trump’s threats to take control of the canal cites its ownership, not a US gift. Panama has filed a formal complaint with the United Nations about Trump’s threats. It has cited the UN Charter’s rule against using force or threats to undermine a state’s independence or territorial integrity.
Trump’s strong opposition to leftist administrations and limiting immigration might escalate tensions with nations such as Bolivia and Nicaragua. His approach to governance and democracy may overlook the long-standing U.S. backing of democratic principles and human rights. By supporting leaders who benefit the U.S., irrespective of their democratic credentials, the government could strengthen regional dictators. This strategy has the potential to harm democratic movements and civil society groups in regions like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil, where democracy is not yet stable. Latin American countries could shift their allegiance to China and Russia if the US de-emphasizes human rights, leading to a credibility crisis.
USA-Israel-West Asia Relations
Trump is likely to maintain a strong stance in favour of Israel. This may lead to increased Israeli control of contested zones. This decision would be similar to Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. Stronger U.S.-backed Abraham Accords could further isolate the Palestinians by improving Israel’s relationships with Arab nations. Strengthening defence and technology partnerships with Israel, the administration might enhance joint research efforts in cybersecurity, AI, and advanced military technology.
A harder line on Iran, sustained sanctions, and increased diplomatic isolation may be part of Trump’s Middle East strategy. Since Iran is going all out to increase uranium enrichment, the American attempts to restrain its nuclear program may worsen tensions. And since Iran is a regional power in its own right, it will not brook Trump’s efforts to thwart its geostrategic aspirations.
The U.S. may select a strategy of selective engagement. It may support allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE while neglecting, or even intimidating, unfriendly countries.
USA-India Relations
India faces a challenging situation with Donald Trump’s re-election. The Trump administration’s efforts to counter China’s spreading influence in the Indo-Pacific region serve India’s regional interests. This strategy centres on the Quad alliance comprising India, the U.S., Australia and Japan that may bolster India’s defence and security. However, economic relations present challenges. There will be growing pressure on India to quit BRICS. Trump has called for trade rebalancing, criticizing India’s high tariffs and referring to it as the “king” of tariffs. Trump’s trade push pressures India to buy more US security equipment. Stronger defence ties are possible, but this may also put pressure on India’s domestic industries.
His administration has demanded the repatriation of at least 18,000 undocumented Indian immigrants. And, this is only for starters. One lakh seventy thousand Indians are estimated to be undocumented in the United States. The deportation of these immigrants in the coming months will cause a huge socio-economic problem in India, given the dismal unemployment scenario. Moreover, Trump’s protectionist trade policies, like potential tariffs, might harm India’s exports. India’s trade surplus with the US makes it vulnerable to US protectionism. Trump’s ego problem with Modi and a surprisingly soft stance on China is the worrying signs that demand attention.
Conclusion
The Trump administration has sparked enduring structural transformations. It has introduced a global standard of populist, transactional governance that might endure after his tenure. Beyond a mere change in politics, his second term might lead to a fundamental rethink of international interactions. His reputation rests on his administration’s capacity to dismantle existing systems, reject norms, and redefine the global political landscape. The major risk lies not in specific policy decisions, but in the potential impact of this approach on global dynamics. For instance, Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico has already boomeranged. Counter-tariffs are being contemplated in several countries. Will Trump 2.0 be remembered as a maverick reformer or a mad bull gone berserk? Let us wait and watch.
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