India, a superpower by 2050?

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Will India become an economic and military superpower by 2050? There are projections and speculations that range from ifs-and-buts to over-optimism bordering on hyperbole. India has come a long way from being a basket case in the 1950s and 60s to today’s status of fifth largest economy in the world. The journey has had its share of daunting challenges.

When the economic policies of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s UPA 1 showed positive results, many experts started bandying about delirious superlatives, declaring India a global power, and a serious rival to China. Post 2014, another hyperbole was added, “Vishvaguru”. Although India has made remarkable economic progress, it is still a developing economy struggling to overcome several challenges like rising unemployment, and an increasing number of people below the poverty line, to name just two. The COVID pandemic only made things worse.

According to the United Nations Human Development Report, India ranks 132nd out of 189 countries and territories in terms of human development index (HDI), which measures a country’s achievements in health, education, and standard of living. India also ranks 131st in terms of life expectancy at birth, 145th in terms of expected years of schooling, and 139th in terms of gross national income per capita.

But the India story is not really gloomy if one takes a long-term perspective. Already there are positive signs of the country’s economy bouncing back thanks to the improvement in the post-COVID situation, and despite debilitating effect of the Russia-Ukraine war. India’s deft moves vis-à-vis embargo on Russia’s crude oil have certainly done good to the economic health.

According to the IMF’s 2023 World Economic Outlook, India’s nominal GDP in 2028 is expected to be around 5.58 trillion US dollars, making it the fifth largest economy in the world at current prices. Assuming a constant growth rate of 6% per year, India’s nominal GDP in 2050 could reach 28.8 trillion US dollars, surpassing the US and becoming the second largest economy after China. Of course, this forecast cannot be taken for granted. It does not factor in future reverses owing to a sudden recurrence of pandemics; or, global meltdown because of multiple wars breaking out between China and Taiwan, China and Japan and China and India. This would be besides intensification of Russia-Ukraine conflict with NATO jumping into the fray leading to nuclear war. Another imponderable is the state of India’s political health. Any serious destabilization will hurt India’s economic health grievously.

Assuming that none of the above disasters happen, and global economy picks up, the IMF forecast appears realistic. This view is reinforced by the Ernst & Young report of May 2023, which states that India has the potential to achieve a 30 trillion dollar economy by 2050. The report also suggests that India could become a global leader in renewable energy, digital services, healthcare and education. Of course, there is a caveat. It must improve its infrastructure, quality of governance, human capital, innovation and environmental sustainability.

Along with the expansion in India’s GDP, the social indicators too must improve as these show the actual strength of India’s economy as also the quality of its population. Some examples of social indicators are health status, education level, income and poverty, crime and safety, and environmental quality. Some of the projected social indicators for India in 2050 are:

• Population: India is expected to become the first country to be home to over 1.5 billion people by 2030, and its population will reach 1.7 billion by 2050.
• Economic growth: India is projected to be the second largest economy in the world by 2050, behind China but ahead of the US, with a share of 15% of global GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
• Human development: India’s human development index (HDI), which measures life expectancy, education, and income per capita, is expected to improve from 0.645 in 2019 to 0.779 in 2050, ranking it among the high human development countries.
• Poverty: India’s poverty rate, measured by the percentage of people living below $1.90 a day at 2011 PPP, is projected to decline from 6.7% in 2019 to 0.4% in 2050, lifting about 90 million people out of extreme poverty.
• Health: India’s life expectancy at birth is projected to increase from 69.7 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2050, while its infant mortality rate is projected to decrease from 28.3 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 8.8 per 1,000 live births in 2050.
• Education: India’s literacy rate is projected to increase from 74.4% in 2018 to 92.7% in 2050, while its mean years of schooling is projected to increase from 6.5 years in 2018 to 10.2 years in 2050.
• Environment: India’s carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase from 2.6 metric tons per capita in 2019 to 3.6 metric tons per capita in 2050, while its renewable energy share is projected to increase from 17.5% in 2019 to 40% in 2050.

However, these are subject to various factors, such as policy choices, technological innovations, demographic transitions, climate change effects, and social movements. None of these can be foreseen with any certainty.

Going by Japan’s recent experiences with China, economic muscle and excellent social indicators do not guarantee protection against external military threats. Now Japan is militarizing at a frenetic pace to thwart threats from China.

India, too, is modernizing its armed forces to meet external threats. According to the Global Firepower website, which provides a ranking of countries based on various indicators of military power, India is ranked fourth out of 145 countries in 2023. India has a large and diverse military force with over 1.4 million active personnel and over 2 million reserve personnel. However, India faces challenges and weaknesses, such as under-investment, red-tape, procurement issues, inter-service rivalry and outdated equipment. India has strengths too, such as robust nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, immense space capabilities and indigenous defense industry.

It is difficult to project India’s military power in 2050 owing to several uncertainties and variables. But some of the reports provide ample indicators.

·       According to a report by PwC published in February 2017, India is projected to be the second-largest economy in the world by 2050 in terms of GDP at PPP. Assuming that India allocates a similar percentage of its GDP to defense spending as it does now (around 2.4%), India could have a defense budget of around $1.6 trillion by 2050.

·       According to a report by RAND Corporation published in March 2015, India is expected to be one of the key players in the Indo-Pacific region by 2050. The report states that India will have a strong interest in maintaining regional stability and security, especially in the face of China’s growing proactivity. The report also suggests that India will seek to enhance its military capabilities and partnerships with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia and the US.

·       According to a report by Deloitte published in January 2018, India is likely to become a global leader in defense innovation by 2050. Given its strengths in information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and nanotechnology, India can develop advanced weapons and systems for its military.

So, a vibrant economy, positive social indicators and the capacity to master and innovate a wide spectrum of futuristic technologies, provide India with an immense advantage in its quest for becoming a global power by 2050.