After the 2019 general
elections, India’s political landscape resembled a carpet-bombed terrain. The
opposition parties have been reduced to rubble, with congress resembling a
battered molehill. In comparison, BJP stands as an imposing fortress atop a
hill. The landscape looks bleaker when one looks at the sort of political
culture that has been dominating the national scene. Casteist, patriarchal and regressive
value systems are very much a part of precepts and practices of BJP, as also of
such regional parties like SP, DMK, AIADMK, Shiromani Akali Dal, All India
Muslim League, and several others. AAP and TMC, which aspire to pan-India
status, are one-person outfits that may not last after the departure of their
present leaders. Such regressive, family run, personalized outfits exist
because our polity’s bedrock has developed fractures.
Can these fractures be
repaired? Can the barren landscape be transformed into a vibrant eco-system that
will regenerate healthy political ideas, ideologies, and practices? Sharad
Pawar, Nitish Kumar and Sitaram Yechury joined hands to assemble a viable
alliance of opposition parties and take on BJP in the 2024 general elections.
Will these three musketeers succeed in their mission to storm the saffronite
fortress? Several political pundits have been conjuring up mathematical
equations to predict BJP’s defeat. But politics is more than mere mathematics. Vision,
charishma and unforeseen happenings play a vital role in deciding the outcome
of electoral contests of such gargantuan scales.
The three musketeers
have succeeded in crossing the first stage of their mission. 32 opposition
leaders met in Patna on June 23 in their attempt to find out the answer. The
list is given below.
|
1. Nitish Kumar (JDU) |
Major political parties
from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, like Bharat Rashtra Samithi, Telugu Desam
Party, YSR Congress Party and Jana Sena Party, abstained. Similarly, Odisha’s Biju
Janata Dal was also absent.
However, there were
positive pronouncements after the Patna meet concluded.
While Rahul Gandhi
assured everybody that Congress would shed its past prejudices, Mamata Banerjee
proclaimed that history had begun from Patna. She declared that the opposition
parties would contest elections together against BJP. Leaders from the leftist
parties, D. Raja, Sitaram Yechury and Dipankar Bhattacharya, affirmed the
opposition would unitedly reclaim the Republic before it was lost forever.
Sharad Pawar expressed his confidence in the opposition parties’ will to
achieve the goal of unseating BJP from Delhi. All these are noble sentiments,
and going by the atmospherics, one may be tempted to conclude that it is only a
matter of time before the Opposition parties create a solid front against BJP.
I was surprised when an analyst interpreted Lalu Prasad Yadav’s light-hearted “Dulha
and baraati” comment as readiness to accept Rahul Gandhi as the opposition’s
undisputed PM face.
The road ahead is bumpy
and treacherous. Already Aam Aadmi Party has hit a discordant note by insisting
that Congress endorse its stand on the Delhi ordinance that seeks to have
control of the civil servants’ appointments and transfers. In the ensuing
confrontation between Congress and Kejriwal, most of the opposition parties
were not prepared to offend Congress. Perhaps this was why AAP’s Saurabh
Bhardwaj invoked “Mohabbat ki Dukan” on Sunday to reach out to Rahul Gandhi.
The Indian National Congress
is the largest among the opposition parties. Rahul’s image has improved significantly
after the Bharat Jodo Yatra and his outreach to the common people of
India during and after the yatra. But there are many in the smaller parties who
aspire to lead the proposed coalition. Arvind Kejriwal has never shied away
from making his ambitions clear. Mamata Banerjee too is a formidable claimant
to the PM’s post, although her influence is limited to West Bengal. Among the
three musketeers, some may point out that Sharad Pawar, now more of a father
figure, can never be underestimated for playing power games. He is a seasoned
politician with a champion chess player’s skills. Similarly, Nitish Kumar can
prove to a be a serious rival to Rahul too; given his track record, he can
change his colors. However, it must be said that since Sharad Pawar, Nitish
Kumar and Sitaram Yechury have been working hard to forge an alliance against
BJP, none of them would do anything to sabotage the process. But the question
remains – who would lead the alliance? Or, would it adopt a politburo model?
Since most of these
parties revel in populism of the leftist variety, there may not be any hiccups
on the ideological front. But seat sharing will certainly pose a daunting
challenge. In Uttar Pradesh, there will be a triangular contest among BJP,
Congress and Samajwadi Party unless Akhilesh Yadav respects the coalition
dharma. Mayawati’s BSP may have been reduced to a non-entity, but she herself
commands a significant percentage of Dalit votes that may prove vital during
close contests for some seats in UP. In Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal will
not easily concede seats to Congress without extracting a price that the
Congress leadership may not pay. In West Bengal, Congress will have to contend
with the conflicting aspirations of the two communist parties and TMC. In
Ladakh, and J&K, one sees not much problem unless PDP and National Conference
decide to get into a confrontationist mode, which is unlikely given their
eagerness to get rid of the Modi government. While in Himachal Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Goa, Tamil Nadu and Kerala seat sharing formulae may work out with
little friction, things will be different in Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra
Pradesh. Similarly, in Gujarat and Haryana, there may be a tussle between AAP
and Congress. It would be interesting to watch the coalition partners dealing
with the seat sharing problems in the Northeastern states and Odisha, Jharkhand
and Chhattisgarh. More important, would they be able to pit common candidates
against BJP in a majority of Lok Sabha seats? They need to confront BJP
one-on-one in at least 350 seats, if not 400. It is a challenge that will test
the wisdom and sagacity of the three musketeers.
What would the
coalition’s common agenda be like? Will it be full of populist platitudes,
declaring their common love for the poor? Or would we see a definitive
substantive vision? India needs a developmental roadmap that does not ignore
the poorest of the poor. And the following need to be addressed too:
2.
Meet
the longstanding demand for insulating our police from political interference.
Also, reform the police urgently. It is demeaning for them to be used as
henchmen of persons in power.
3.
Insulate
the banking system against political pressures for giving loans to frauds, scamsters
and white-collared criminals, which has apparently become a norm in the last
few years.
4.
Complete
revamp of the education system that would produce educated youth who would be
genuine assets to India.
5.
Repair
the damage done to the nation’s fabric by the polarizing politics, so that
every citizen of India can live with dignity and without fear. There is an
urgent need to rebuild a society that would be fair and just. Where one’s
quality of head and heart will overrule one’s identity based on class, caste,
creed, region, and religion.
6.
Finally,
welfarism needs to be institutionalized. Doles to the unemployed and the
genuinely poor should be standardized once for all. This will end the culture
of election-eve freebies.
During the election
campaigns, the coalition partners must restore the confidence of common people
in political processes and institutions of the country. I am saying this
because, if the results of 2024 general elections hit a stalemate, there is
every chance of some of the opposition leaders walking into the BJP camp if
they are given the right incentive by Amit Shah.
Since the Indian
National Congress is the largest opposition party, the onus will be on it to
keep the coalition together and help make the three musketeers’ mission a
resounding success. Kharge, Rahul and Priyanka need to present their party as a
role model for others to follow. Congress needs to take an unequivocal lead on
issues like women wrestlers, corruption, sectarianism, poverty alleviation,
sustainable development, welfarism, federal issues, etc.
We look forward to the
emergence of a powerful and vibrant India, where peace, prosperity and justice
prevail without discrimination. An idealistic dream? But dreams can come true
if a visionary leadership with commitment to the people of India emerges.
We wait with hope.
No comments:
Post a Comment