A terrorist attack in J&K’s Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, resulted in the death of 26 civilians, pushing India and Pakistan’s relationship to the brink. India’s public is enraged by the TRF’s attack. TRF is a Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba offshoot. Demands for decisive action, including war, are becoming increasingly strident. Pakistan has refused to admit its role in the massacre. Its subsequent actions, including suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement, have dramatically increased tensions. Let us examine the realistic strategic options available to India in response to the Pahalgam attack. Also, analyse the practicality and implications of military responses like surgical strikes or war and non-military alternatives. We shall look into past events, current global dynamics, and potential future crises to understand that India’s response, while necessary for deterrence, must be measured to avoid a devastating nuclear war.
Historical Context and Precedents
India-Pakistan relations are marred by repeated crises. These often stem from terrorist attacks linked to Pakistan-based organisations. The 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks offer valuable insight into how India might react in similar situations.
The 2016 Uri Attack
After 19 Indian soldiers were killed in an attack on an army base in Uri, India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC), hitting militant launch pads in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. The restricted operation aimed to show strength without triggering a major war. The avoidance of escalation resulted from Pakistan’s understatement of the attacks and rejection of significant damage claims. India’s domestic calls for action were met by the strikes, which strategically avoided crossing Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.
The 2019 Pulwama Attack
A suicide attack in Pulwama resulted in the death of 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. India responded with airstrikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Pakistan’s Balakot. This was a major escalation, being the first Indian airstrike in Pakistan since 1971. Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes triggered an aerial clash. U.S.-led international mediation helped to ease the crisis. India’s Balakot operation showed its readiness for escalation, but also underscored the dangers of miscalculation due to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
India’s history of limited military actions against terrorism suggests success. However, escalation risks remain between the two nuclear weapons states.
Geopolitical and Geostrategic Realities
A complex geopolitical context defines the range of India’s responses to the Pahalgam situation.
Nuclear Deterrence
India and Pakistan are in an arms race; Pakistan’s strategy includes tactical nuclear weapons such as the Nasr missile. The risk of nuclear weapons being used in conventional warfare increases, especially if Pakistan believes its survival is at stake. A 1981 U.S. intelligence report cautioned that India attacking Pakistan’s nuclear sites might trigger a nuclear retaliation. So, the potential for nuclear escalation renders total war incredibly dangerous.
Regional Power Dynamics
Thanks to partnerships with the US, Saudi Arabia, and other nations, India's stronger global standing stands in contrast to Pakistan’s relative isolation amid economic and political challenges. By suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and closing the border, India is taking advantage of Pakistan’s dependence on water and trade. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, mainly via CPEC, offers significant support. And Turkey, an emerging player in the subcontinent’s geopolitics, adds complexity to India’s strategic planning.
International Community
The international community’s response to the Pahalgam attack, notably condemnations from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia, demonstrates backing for India’s counterterrorism actions. Despite urging restraint, the U.S. continues to support India, a position underscored by its Level 4 travel advisory for Jammu and Kashmir. Still, the world is wary of nuclear war, and the push for de-escalation would strengthen if India takes military action.
Domestic Pressures
In India, the attack has ignited nationalist fervour, prompting calls for revenge in public and media discussions. The looming 2024 state elections are pressuring the government to show strength. However, if the response seems to single out Muslims, it could worsen existing tensions within the community. So, it is crucial to manage the presentation of the situation domestically.
India’s Strategic Options
To restore deterrence and meet domestic needs, India’s response must avoid catastrophic escalation. Hypothetical scenarios illustrate the potential outcomes of each of the following options.
Option 1: All-Out War
India uses its Cold Start doctrine to quickly send its Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) into Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh. Pakistan reacts with conventional troops and Nasr missiles, signalling its willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Diplomatic intervention from the U.S., China, and other international actors increases as casualties rise. However, a miscalculation, like India attacking a Pakistani nuclear site, could spark a nuclear war, resulting in devastating losses and worldwide outrage.
Analysis
An all-out war is not a practical solution. The potential gains are overshadowed by the risks of nuclear escalation and its substantial economic and human toll. Although weaker than India’s, Pakistan’s conventional forces could still significantly extend a conflict, and its nuclear weapons guarantee mutual devastation. Furthermore, international pressure might compel a ceasefire before India’s strategic goals are met. Conflicts such as the 1971 war, fought before the nuclear age, are not comparable to the current situation.
Option 2: Surgical Strikes
Indian elite Para (SF) commandos raid a TRF safe house in Pakistan’s Punjab province, killing top militants. Although officially unacknowledged, the operation’s deniability is undermined by Indian media leaks. With the raid unconfirmed, Pakistan’s response is increased LoC skirmishes, but it refrains from significant escalation. U.S. mediation of back-channel talks results in Pakistan pledging to curb TRF.
Analysis
Surgical strikes offer a measured response, fulfilling domestic pressure for action while limiting the chance of wider conflict. Uri and Balakot proved that resolve can be shown effectively without causing a major war. Despite this, Pakistan’s commitment to “full spectrum deterrence” makes even small-scale attacks dangerous, a fact highlighted by the 2019 air battle. Precise intelligence and international pressure on Pakistan are crucial for success.
Option 3: Non-Kinetic Measures
To cripple Pakistan’s agriculture, India escalates its Indus Waters Treaty suspension, altering water distribution. A global diplomatic campaign is launched, resulting in UN sanctions against Lashkar-e-Taiba affiliates. Cyberattacks on Pakistan’s military communication networks hinder terrorist coordination. To prevent domestic unrest, India fortifies Jammu and Kashmir’s security and funds initiatives to counter radicalisation.
Analysis
India can weaken Pakistan without war by using economic and diplomatic pressure. Pakistan’s reliance on the Indus waters makes suspending the treaty a potent tool. Cyberattacks provide plausible deniability. Diplomatic initiatives support international counterterrorism objectives better. However, these steps might not quell domestic calls for immediate justice and could lead to military escalation from Pakistan if economic hardship reaches a critical point.
Option 4: Hybrid Approach
India launches an airstrike on a TRF training camp in Pakistan. Simultaneously, it conducts a global diplomatic campaign to label Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorism. Faced with U.S. and Chinese pressure, Pakistan agrees to dismantle TRF networks, but only after retaliatory LoC skirmishes. India views the result as a strategic win, increasing domestic backing.
Analysis
By blending military deterrence with long-term, non-kinetic actions, India’s hybrid strategy offers the widest range of options. This supports India’s growing geopolitical influence and uses international backing to curb Pakistan. However, to prevent miscalculation and escalating tensions because of Pakistan’s nuclear signalling, careful calibration is necessary.
Evaluation
A full-scale war is neither realistic nor sensible. Nuclear risks, along with economic and human costs, create a no-win scenario. By conducting surgical strikes, India demonstrates its resolve against terrorism, discouraging future attacks. Simultaneously, worldwide backing for these actions bolsters India’s diplomatic standing, aiding its efforts to isolate Pakistan and secure counterterrorism pledges. Measures, including water and trade restrictions, further strain Pakistan’s economy, prioritising internal stability over proxy conflicts. At home, a measured response promotes social peace and strengthens India’s image as a strong, restrained, and responsible leader.
India’s strategic resolve and regional leadership face a tragic test in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. Despite understandable anger, driving calls for all-out war, nuclear and geopolitical factors demand restraint. A mix of surgical strikes and diplomatic, economic, and cyber measures offers the best path forward. Drawing on the experiences of Uri and Balakot, India can retaliate against the perpetrators, discourage future attacks, and enhance its global image while avoiding a major conflict. South Asian peace requires a balance of power, clever diplomacy, and a commitment to a stable region. While facing this crisis, India should uphold justice without compromising its future.
India-Pakistan relations, Pahalgam attack, terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, TRF attack, surgical strikes, nuclear deterrence, India’s strategic options, 2016 Uri attack, 2019 Pulwama attack, Balakot airstrike, Simla Agreement, Indus Waters Treaty, Cold Start doctrine, tactical nuclear weapons, geopolitical dynamics, regional stability, counterterrorism, domestic pressures, non-kinetic measures, hybrid strategy, cyber warfare, diplomatic campaign, South Asian security, nuclear escalation risks
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