The SARS-CoV-2 virus triggered the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a major 21st-century global health crisis that badly affected India, given its vast population and the state of healthcare systems. Early official reports estimated India’s COVID-19 death toll at around 480,000. However, the Registrar General of India's report released in May 2025, based on Civil Registration System (CRS) data for 2021 alone, indicated more than 2 million deaths compared to pre-pandemic years. This suggests that if we take the entire pandemic period, the total COVID-related death toll approaches 4 to 5 million. This figure aligns with the World Health Organisation’s 2022 excess mortality estimate of 4.7 million COVID-related deaths in India, which the Indian government initially disputed. So, why did the government disclose the information in 2025?
In several states, the disparity was striking. Gujarat, for instance, reported 5,809 COVID-19 deaths in 2021; however, the excess mortality was 1,95,406—a difference exceeding 33 times the reported figure. Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Rajasthan also significantly underreported. Conversely, Kerala’s transparent, accurate reporting, often scrutinised for high numbers due to extensive testing and honest data recording, stood out.
Reasons for the Alleged Cover-Up
India’s low official COVID-19 death count is a result of political, economic, administrative, and systemic issues that hide the true number of deaths.
Political and Economic Considerations
Public morale and political stability are often threatened during crises, prompting governments to downplay their impact. India faced several economic challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. There were prolonged lockdowns, job losses, and supply chain disruptions. A significantly higher reported death toll could have triggered public panic, eroded trust in governance, and intensified political pressure. According to Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, then-President of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), India’s COVID-19 death toll was perhaps understated due to gaps in data collection, delays in registration, and inconsistent death certification practices. He has stated that the full extent of underreporting cannot be known without detailed epidemiological and demographic analysis.
Investor confidence and economic recovery could be further damaged by a higher death toll. The government may have sought to project control and normalcy. This helped support economic activities. This is consistent with a global trend of governments underreporting to avoid economic repercussions.
India’s growing global influence might have led to worries about international oversight and disapproval. Increased fatalities could have harmed India’s reputation and global health influence. The government’s rejection of the WHO’s 2022 figures as “exaggerated and misleading” highlights this issue.
Administrative and Infrastructure Challenges
Although India’s death registration system is theoretically strong, it has major flaws, particularly in rural areas which account for 70% of deaths. Many deaths, especially those at home and without medical care, are undocumented. The Civil Registration System misses a significant number of deaths. This results in underreporting of both COVID-19 and other causes of death. In the words of epidemiologist Prabhat Jha, India has room for improvement.
The second wave of the pandemic in 2021 overwhelmed India’s healthcare system. Logistical issues meant hospitals and crematoriums were overloaded. So many deaths remained undocumented. Rural areas, with their limited access to testing and medical care, showed this effect most clearly.
COVID-19 testing wasn’t universal, particularly in rural and underserved communities. Moreover, the strict criteria used to classify COVID-19 deaths may have missed many cases. For example, in West Bengal, COVID-19 deaths weren’t always recorded as such if co-morbidities were involved. According to the Hindu, 72 of 105 COVID-19 deaths were attributed to other conditions. The Lancet noted inconsistencies stemming from ICMR guidelines on suspected/probable COVID-19 deaths, which were advisory, not mandatory.
Fear of Scrutiny and Accountability
Frequent criticism of the government’s pandemic handling came from the opposition parties and civil society. A higher death toll, if acknowledged, could have intensified criticism and spurred demands for accountability. The Congress party of Gujarat cited a death toll of at least 55,000 for the state, a figure considerably greater than official numbers.
Under international health regulations, India must report accurate data. The government, however, may have initially favoured domestic politics over international transparency. Pressure to resolve inconsistencies in India’s 2022 mortality data rose due to WHO’s criticism.
Systemic Issues in Data Collection
Although the ICMR provided guidelines on recording COVID-19 deaths, their implementation varied across states. To illustrate, the official COVID-19 count was lowered when Delhi ceased testing deceased individuals in May 2020. A large part of India’s population lives in rural areas without access to proper healthcare or death registration. So, underreporting of COVID-19 fatalities was significant.
Why the Government Released Corrected Data in 2025
The May 2025 release of the 2021 Vital Statistics of India report, noting almost 2 million excess deaths, can be viewed from various perspectives: international pressure, domestic demands, public health needs, and changes in government policy.
Pressure from International Bodies and Domestic Institutions
WHO and other international health organisations insist on accurate data for maintaining global health security. India’s initial downplaying of its COVID-19 death toll drew international criticism. This intensified following the WHO’s 2022 estimate of 4.7 million excess deaths. The 2025 release of corrected data could be a reaction to pressure, allowing India to meet global standards and retain credibility in international health discussions. Judicial actions also contributed. Legal challenges in Indian courts regarding the pandemic possibly prompted the government’s release of accurate data. The report’s quiet release during the Pahalgam related surge in nationalism hints at efforts to lessen domestic political backlash.
Shift in Government Policy
To effectively understand and respond to future pandemics, accurate mortality data is essential. Perhaps the government hoped to bolster public health systems and future crisis response by releasing the corrected data. According to Prashant Mathur, director of the National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, broader death counts (confirmed and suspected) are needed for improved COVID-19 understanding and management. Releasing accurate data reveals healthcare gaps and improves death registration.
India’s 2021 Vital Statistics report release could signal a government push for transparency. Perhaps this is a result of a revised focus on accurate data, or public calls for accountability. The government’s 2025 disclosure of underreporting directly contradicts their earlier statements, e.g., dismissing WHO estimates as “fallacious”, indicating a change in policy.
India’s position regarding the political and economic fallout from acknowledging the true death toll was expected to improve by 2025. Following the immediate crisis, the government might have believed it was the perfect time to tackle the problem without interfering with the recovery process. The report’s quiet release suggests a strategic plan to control how the public views it.
Implications and Conclusions
The underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in India and the eventual release of corrected data highlight several critical issues: This situation shows we need more transparent and accountable governance, especially when dealing with public health crises. Maintaining public trust requires governments to value accurate data above political convenience.
India’s healthcare and death registration systems, especially in rural areas, need major upgrades to improve public health infrastructure. Robust systems are vital for effective crisis response and sustainable health planning.
Global health security hinges on the accurate exchange of data between nations. India’s pandemic experience shows why following global reporting standards is crucial.
Public trust in government has suffered due to the difference between reported and real death tolls. To rebuild trust, we must consistently be transparent and accountable.
In short, political and economic pressures, data collection problems, and inconsistent state reporting led to underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in India. International pressure, domestic demands for transparency, and the need for accurate public health planning led to the May 2025 release of corrected data revealing almost 20 lakh excess deaths. Future pandemic management can learn critically from this episode, especially regarding robust data, transparent governance, and a strong public health infrastructure. India can strengthen its crisis response and regain public trust by overcoming these challenges.
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