Has Pakistan stolen a march over India in geopolitical stakes? Has Pakistan’s partial pivot towards the United States angered China? Will Russia forsake India for Pakistan? Can we take Trump’s recent overtures to India at face value? Let us try and answer these questions.
In 2025, the global political scene is changing fast. The rivalry between the United States and China is sharper than ever. South Asia remains tense after the brief India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025. At the same time, Pakistan is carefully trying to improve its relations with big powers, especially the United States and Russia, while keeping its strong bond with China. This strategic balancing act is part of Pakistan's plan to reduce its dependence on a single ally and improve its economy. But what does this mean for India?
Russia and Pakistan: A Transactional Relationship
On September 2, 2025, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Pakistan a "traditional partner" and expressed a wish to strengthen ties in trade, energy, and security. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif returned the compliment and expressed a desire to improve cooperation in agriculture, iron, steel, and counterterrorism.
But it is important to understand the nature of this growing relationship. Russia has been India's closest ally, especially in military matters. Over half of India’s military equipment comes from Russia. For decades, India and Russia have shared a "special and privileged" relationship. In 2024-2025, their trade reached record levels, and key deals like the S-400 air defense system and joint BrahMos missile production were finalised.
In contrast, Pakistan-Russia trade remains modest. It rose from about $697 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024. The goal is to double this figure soon. A pilot cargo train was launched in August 2025 to improve trade between the two countries. Pakistan now imports around 3.6 million tonnes of Russian crude oil every year. Both sides have also signed agreements for cooperation in agriculture and energy.
However, military ties between Russia and Pakistan are still limited. So far, they include joint exercises and counter-narcotics operations. There are no major arms deals as seen between India and Russia.
Why is Russia building ties with Pakistan? Analysts say it is mostly pragmatic. Russia wants to reduce the impact of Western sanctions and expand its influence in South Asia. This explains why Russia did not strongly support India during the May 2025 skirmish at Pahalgam and instead urged both India and Pakistan to show restraint. There is a possibility that Russian technology or weapons might reach Pakistan in the future, which could affect India's military superiority.
Still, Russia is unlikely to cut its military cooperation with India. Both countries continue discussions about such issues, and Russia remains committed to India. Pakistan’s fragile economy also limits its ability to dramatically shift alliances. The relationship with Russia is not based on ideology but is a transactional one, aimed at serving mutual economic and strategic interests.
Renewed Engagement with the United States
Pakistan’s efforts to restore ties with the United States have shown clear results in 2025. In June, U.S. President Donald Trump met Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, at the White House. This was the first such meeting in many years. The talks focused on counterterrorism, trade, artificial intelligence, energy, cryptocurrency, minerals, and infrastructure. Trump indicated interest in forming a "mutually beneficial strategic partnership."
Economically, Pakistan was under pressure. The U.S. had imposed high tariffs—up to 29%—on Pakistani goods, especially textiles, which threatened to cut Pakistan’s export earnings by up to $1.4 billion annually. But by August 2025, after several rounds of talks, the U.S. agreed to lower the tariffs to 19%. At the same time, Pakistan and the U.S. agreed on measures to develop oil reserves and reduce trade barriers. The U.S.-Pakistan trade, which stood at $7.3 billion in 2024, is expected to reach $10.1 billion in 2025, a 6.3% increase.
One of the biggest projects is the Reko Diq copper-gold mine in Balochistan. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is ready to invest up to $700 million, and Barrick Gold, a major U.S. mining company, plans to invest $3.5 billion to develop the mine. This helps Pakistan reduce its reliance on China and makes the U.S. a key partner in its economy.
Pakistan is also pushing into digital technology. In March 2025, it launched the Pakistan Crypto Council under its Finance Ministry. Its aim is to promote the use of blockchain and digital assets. In April, former Binance CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao was appointed as an advisor to help Pakistan attract investment in the digital sector. Although there is no direct partnership with U.S. crypto firms, this shows Pakistan’s desire to align its digital economy with global standards.
This reset is benefits both sides. The U.S. gains a partner to balance China’s influence in South Asia and secures access to important minerals. For Pakistan, it helps ease its financial problems and reduces dependency on China or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Still, mistrust remains. Pakistan’s relationship with Iran, especially along the Shia-majority border, and the unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies present risks. Past conflicts and cooperation failures have left scars on both sides.
The “Ironclad” China-Pakistan Bond
China remains Pakistan’s strongest and most reliable ally. In 2025, China continued to invest heavily in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. CPEC’s total value is now estimated at $60 billion and includes projects in agriculture, IT, and mineral extraction.
However, according to a news report, China exits Pakistan’s $60 billion economic corridor project. Islamabad’s warming relations with Washington, and India’s growing closeness with China and Russia after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, have added a complex geopolitical backdrop to Beijing’s disengagement. This indicates a question mark over the so-called "iron-clad" friendship between Pakistan and China, though it does not signal a complete rupture in their longstanding strategic alliance. The phrase "iron-clad friendship" (often rendered as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans" in official rhetoric) has been a cornerstone of bilateral ties since the 1950s, emphasising unwavering mutual support in security, diplomacy, and economics. However, China's decision to withdraw from financing the Main Line-1 (ML-1) railway upgrade—a flagship $6.8 billion component of the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—highlights emerging cracks driven by pragmatic financial and geopolitical considerations rather than ideological or emotional bonds.
Still, both China and Pakistan continue high-level diplomatic engagements. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a significant visit to Pakistan, and the SCO framework helps keep their ties strong. China sees Pakistan's efforts to build ties with Russia and the U.S. as a tactical move rather than a defection. Beijing wants to keep Pakistan close while allowing Islamabad to maintain some freedom of action. There is potential for disagreement, especially over resources like the Reko Diq mine, but Pakistan has assured China that these activities will not harm their partnership.
What Does This Mean for India?
Pakistan’s better ties with the U.S., Russia, and China make it economically more stable and give it more diplomatic strength. This may make it more confident in taking aggressive steps, especially related to Kashmir or cross-border terrorism. A stronger Pakistan may challenge India's security and force New Delhi to think more strategically.
But India needs to stay alert but not panic. Russia remains committed to India for its own strategic reasons. The U.S., while engaging Pakistan, continues to strengthen its Quad partnership with India, Japan, and Australia to counter China. Washington’s engagement with Islamabad does not reduce its strategic alignment with New Delhi. This becomes clear from Trump softening his rhetoric against India and referring to India-US friendship.
Moreover, Pakistan’s own problems restrict its potential. Its economy remains fragile, political instability is common, and debt is high. The multi-alignment strategy avoids full dependence on any one power, which suggests that Pakistan will not completely pivot toward the U.S. or Russia. Instead, it seeks to balance its relationships carefully.
India should focus on strengthening its traditional ties with Russia, while also deepening engagement with the U.S. and regional forums like the SCO and Quad. This approach will help New Delhi preserve its strategic advantages in South Asia. Proactive diplomacy and balanced military modernisation will help India maintain peace without unnecessary alarm.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s renewed ties with big powers reflect careful planning amid a rapidly changing global environment. It is trying to diversify its economic and strategic partnerships while dealing with its own internal challenges. These moves are not designed to directly harm India but to improve Pakistan’s standing and stability.
India’s best approach is cautious monitoring and steady diplomacy. By reinforcing its traditional alliances and engaging regional forums actively, New Delhi can continue to lead South Asia without falling into crisis mode. A full-scale confrontation seems unlikely, but staying complacent would be unwise. Instead, India should ensure its security and diplomatic primacy through smart, forward-looking policies.
Pakistan, USA, India, Japan, Australia, China, Quad, BRICS, CPEC, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, ASEAN, Tariffs, Russia, Putin, Trump, Asim Munir, Shahbaz Sharif, Tianjin, Pahalgam, Operation Sindoor, European Union, Wang Yi, Xi Jinping,
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